Interest Rates

[HattrickNZ]

There is a reason they are saying this and it is not good in fact its very scary, anyone with a mortgage should be preying this doesnt happen.

If it does happen 95% of people will be screwed.

Few understand this (thanks M.G)

can you elaborate on this please?
is it because if they don't then the system truly is fubarred, and high rates will cause too much pain....

[Chris W]

(thanks M.G)

Chook

Who or what is M.G?

[Perry]

Cur Shonkey unveils his predictions for the 2023 economy . . .10% interest rate next year
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.new...-2023.amp.html

Are we there, yet?

[chook]

Chook

Who or what is M.G?

Michael Gayad "Few understand this" is his slogan.

[chook]

Are we there, yet?

Pretty bloody close

[Beano]

I think we are already stress tested at 10%
I think we're going to have floating rates [stress-tested at] very close to 10 percent - I think people will be writing mortgages [at]… you've got to believe they're going to have a 7 in front of them."

[Beano]

I think we are already stress tested at 10%
I think we're going to have floating rates [stress-tested at] very close to 10 percent - I think people will be writing mortgages [at]… you've got to believe they're going to have a 7 in front of them."
I am already at over 8% floating

[JBM]

Just signed up small business loan 5yrs 5.99%(using RES equity) ... might well be a regret in couple years ..but wasn't keen on the 6.7% 1yr fixed or 8%+ floating ... I personal think inflation will kick higher again come Northern hemp winter Energy demands Vs woke energy policy / Russia etc .. + whole Net Zero targets all very inflationary ..

talk of RBNZ cuts likely late 2024 ....

[donna]

^^ Tony Alexander says interest rate drop could happen this year. I’ve got a loan coming off fixed late Jan 2024 - will float till substantial drop unless short term presents as too good to be true.

cheers

Donna

[Engineer]

From Jarden.co.nz, May 23

The end of OCR rises?


In its monetary policy announcement today, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) raised the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 0.25% to 5.5%, which is broadly in line with most economists’ expectations. However, market expectations had recently reflected a higher probability of a 0.5% OCR increase given last week’s more stimulatory than expected Budget and recent signs of surging net inward migration.

In addition, while many economists expected the RBNZ to signal further OCR rises ahead, it instead sees 5.5% as the peak, as it predicted in its February MPS. However, the OCR is expected to remain at 5.5% until the September quarter 2024, which contrasts with market expectations of OCR cuts starting as early as November this year. The end point of the OCR in 2026 is seen by the RBNZ to be marginally lower than previously forecast.

[JBM]

Prediction on interest rates..I give you permission Perry to mock and scorn me in 5 to 10 years if I'm wrong.

INTEREST RATES WILL NEVER RETURN BACK TO NORMAL RATES OF 5 or 6%

It would be impossible for governments to repay the debt because tax intake would not be sufficient to service the debt alone as they would still need taxes/money for everything else in our state burdened society..who will house the unemployable? Or educate more tax slaves in our insightful education system.

I'll let everyone in on a secret..

Our central bank has been deleting government debt, its relatively easy and nobody knows about it. They have been deleting zeros of their spread sheet.

Why don't they delete everyone's debt you may ask?

Because if nobody had debt all that extra cash would most likely lead to a flood of spending and hyperinflation..so it has to be done slowly and secretly.

LOL .. how many of us knew it was only matter of time till inflation would kick>>>> but stupidly didn't fix long term when we had a chance Doh!!

[Jeffa]

LOL .. how many of us knew it was only matter of time till inflation would kick>>>> but stupidly didn't fix long term when we had a chance Doh!!

I also predicted the Warriors will win the NRL grand final every year for the past 3 decades

Most of my loans are on floating revolving credit, it only hurts if I use them,

I don't

because I have a very large war chest "lol"

I'm not at all afraid to predict what I believe will happen

... because I'm not a pussy.

[JBM]

I also predicted the Warriors will win the NRL grand final every year for the past 3 decades

Most of my loans are on floating revolving credit, it only hurts if I use them,

I don't

because I have a very large war chest "lol"

I'm not at all afraid to predict what I believe will happen

... because I'm not a pussy.

Happy for you having piles of cash .. never generally hold heaps of cash...always keep pretty well invested even in bad times I'll shift into ETF market shorts (make money if the market falls)...

even though I wouldn't mind if I get another 100%+ growth year in the ASX to pull a good chunk of change home to NZD ...

I hope you didn't put money on the WAR to win every year...

[Perry]

In HB., Cyclone Gabrielle demonstrated the worth of cash-under-the-bed, even if only for a few days before the electricity and EFT-POS network was restored.

And - of course - it showed how few had reserves of other things / anything. Like ye olde civil defence preparedness kits. Used to be on the inside front cover of another ye olde artifact - the phone book of yesteryear.

Digital is the way forward? Yeah, right.

Now, about your back-up plan . . .

You what?

[JBM]

Interesting-- Westpac still offering 5.99% for 5yrs yet the rest of the Banks 6.29% or higher ..

I've said it many times before ...and I'll say it again ...I don't see NZ rates coming back down anywhere near those COVID lows ...for A LONGGGGG time...

Energy prices heading higher ...fastest move upwards in a long time .... I don't think many punter really understand just how much OIL supply issues will affect ..inflation going forward the Woke agenda has crushed investment in the sector ...thats going bite HARD next couple years ... just look the noobs in the US Govt drained down their strategic oil reserves drained to record low and winter in coming..along with Russian export issues .. perfect storm building for $100bbl+ WTi

I see fuel at my local just over $3lt .. hows kiwis going find it when its around $4 ... so average car $240+ to fill .. we have farming hitting the wall costs higher / incomes heading lower .. + high lending rates to put the boot in ...