Development land: 40-50% declines? Anyone got any further details?

[Chris W]

https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...143#post732051...

[Chris W]

For those who may not have noticed.

i) UK government bond price at peak in June 2020 was 102.16
ii) Latest bond price in September 2022 is 24.59

Fall in price of 75% in 27 months - from a "safe" and "risk free" asset....

[Chris W]

Financial stability concerns by Bank of England due to liquidity issues for pension funds on their hedges (liability driven investment)...

[Chris W]

FYI, there are some "safe" AA+ bonds of governments in Europe that have fallen in price about 70-75% from their peak....

[Chris W]

FYI

46.4% of NZ central government debt is owned by NZ residents

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/...ebt-securities

53.6% held by non residents,
46.4% held by residents

Where do NZ residents own the NZ central government debt?

...

[Chris W]

Thank you for that. Are you referring to the subscription to Core Logic's Property Guru platform?

Minimum cost is $2,277 per year (Approx $190 / month)?

May only worthwhile for full time property specialists, active property investors, and active property traders.
...

[Chris W]

I couldn't find a NZ government bond issue denominated in USD - can you find one that you're referring to?

Just looked at a number of issues of NZ Government debt - according to the term sheets, they are all denominated in NZD.

Here is one such term sheet for a bond denominated...

[Chris W]

Can you please clarify the above comment?

Does the above comment mean

1) NZ government issues government debt securities denominated in USD?

2) Or something else?...

[Chris W]

Engineer

That is interesting. How and where can people see this level of detail?...

[Chris W]

From Ashley Church

"But what constitutes a housing market crash? ...... I define a property market crash as a 20% drop in the median sales price from market peak, and which lasts for more than 12 months."

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashle...-four-reasons-...

[Chris W]

For the record

"The residential real estate market in New Zealand is in the process of turning. Spring for 2022 looks like being one in which housing as an asset to grow one’s family in becomes dominant. What will follow is the flow of people who treat housing as a portfolio asset,...

[Chris W]

On development land

"you are looking at 40-50% declines in some of that development land"



https://youtu.be/dCCU6XYf6ZY?t=1927

Is anyone seeing any reports or got any further details on this? locations?...

[Chris W]

Many people will learn the same financial lessons as Dean Letfus.

https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/f...142#post731107

[Chris W]

1) This is what high profile property market commentators were saying

a) in December 2021.

https://ndhadeliver.natlib.govt.nz/d...pid=IE79655584

b) in April 2022

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/ashle...nt-crash-41212

c) in June 2022...

[Chris W]

On development land

"you are looking at 40-50% declines in some of that development land"

https://youtu.be/dCCU6XYf6ZY?t=1927

[Chris W]

REINZ Housing Price Index Update (Aug 2022)

Prices month on month (since peak - approximately 7 months ago):

- National -1.28% (-12.1%)
- National (ex-Auckland) -1.69% (-9.0%)
- Auckland -0.8% (-16.3%)
- Wellington -3.7% (-18.1%)


For what...

[Chris W]

FYI,
https://youtu.be/68KIFw0QdQM...

[Chris W]

At high school, there were quite a few stories of females who spoke openly that their future career choice was - as it was known then, "the DPB" (aka the domestic purposes benefit).

Needless to say, that it was not a high socio-economic area....

[Chris W]

That single mum with 5 children is unlikely to be able to afford housing provided by private landlords without any financial assistance.

There is a huge shortage of social / public housing and there is a rising number on the waiting list for social / public housing.

There...

[Chris W]

Seeing protests in Indonesia.

Seeing strike action in Auckland due to higher cost of living....