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[Jeffa]

Westpac forcasting OCR to start coming down early 2024

Tony Alexander still recommends 1&2y rates if you're coming off soon.

Markets and swaps tend to move ahead of OCR so retail Bank rates could start lowering rates mid to late 2023, for this to happen, we need to go into...

[Jeffa]

Agree, hence I'm tempted but trying very hard to keep my conspiratorial theories out of this thread... it's tempting.


Reserve Bank Governor Adrian Orr says the central bank is "sorry" that Kiwis are being buffeted by significant shocks and inflation is above target - but...

[Jeffa]

NZ 10 and 2 year bond yields now massively inverted
Bond market pricing in recession next year, then having to lower rates on the longer term bonds to fix this slow moving train wreck.

[Jeffa]

WTF is Orr doing?Does he even know what he's doing? Why did Labour give him a 5 year extension?Why has he been wasting his time with the small Maori economy and praying to Tane Mahuta than actually figuring out what's going on in the world?

Bank of Korea opts for smaller hike; Asia markets...

[Jeffa]

Weaker USD good for lowering NZ inflation

...yes I was well Infront of this overpaid Westpac Analyst to short the USD Vs NZD....

[Jeffa]

I have been a big supporter of recessions, it's natural and healthy in capitalist markets, it weeds out the weak companies/ landlords so only the strong remain
However the moves Woke Orr is making will hurt the innocent, I'm not talking about greedy investors.

At this rate, many...

[Jeffa]

Somehow the woke confused ginga in Wellington seems to think the RBNZ rate hikes that started months before the Fed started raising the Federal fund rate doesn't have a lag effect or slowing international demand and declining inflation doesn't effect us? Wtf??

The projected recession the...

[Jeffa]

FEDERAL RESERVE Fed officials see smaller rate hikes coming 'soon,' minutes show






https://www-cnbc-com.cdn.ampproject....mber-2022.html...

[Jeffa]

I'm more interested in international market forces, the macro economy has a far greater way on little old NZ than a woke confused ginga in Wellington pretending to know what he's doing, Why would you increase the OCR into a recession projected only a few months later?

Fed meeting minutes/...

[Jeffa]

No longer interested in the drivel coming from the the RBNZ and Wellington but some initial thoughts

RBNZ trying to catch up to other central banks like Australia and U.S with there inflation presumably slowing, so how the RBNZ forcasting that ours is increasing doesn't make sense?
...

[Jeffa]

25 best countries in the world to retire in according to this survey

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/bes...etire-in-2022/

[Jeffa]

This news clip is uninformative, all they say is House prices will double in 8 years, this again is why I believe mainstream media is dieing, only printing parts of the story to sell newspaper's, they don't explain how or why, most likely they don't know or couldn't be bothered doing actual research,...

[Jeffa]

^^Yes I understand stand your point McD , but what I was referring to with internal migration back to the big cities, its cyclical,

when the economy slows next year and is likely to as the world moves into a recession from higher interest rates, unemployment will increase, this was based...

[Jeffa]

Bank economist are going to have to reprice there dairy forcast pay outs lower for next year if the Kiwi gets stronger, this could see a reversal back to the big cities for work when our economy slows next year , strengthening weak housing markets in Auckland and Wellington....

[Jeffa]

[Jeffa]

NZ 2 and 10y bond yields still pricing in OCR to pause at 4.2%
Most bank economist giving themselves wiggle room and saying between 5 to 5.5% /that's a lot of wiggle room to make profits on margin if there wrong.

[Jeffa]

Russia fired 2 missiles into Poland killing 2

An attack on Poland could cause them to trigger NATO Article 5 provisions, which would result in a full-on NATO attack on Russia and World War 3

World war 3 is deflationary and would stop the Fed raising rates..lol ....

[Jeffa]

An attack on Poland could cause them to trigger NATO Article 5 provisions, which would result in a full-on NATO attack on Russia and World War 3...or not....

[Jeffa]

Russia just fired a missile into Poland killing 2.

[Jeffa]

There is a narrative by our local mainstream financial media and bank economist that A.Orr will keep a Hawkish tone next week to keep the Kiwi dollar stronger

It's b.s , but Orr will likely play along,

We have no control over our currency's buying power, we are too small...