User Profile

[Jeffa]

I'm feeling more upbeat about the housing market this summer

China's sharemarket may be in the beginning stages of a bull market thanks to relaxed bank lending, there getting on top of covid, and government intervention on there economy.

Im a little more confident in my US...

[Jeffa]

I'd be weary of Bloomberg economist, some of them can't or won't read a standard company financial statement, and usually prefer to print what gets the most click's.

Chook is right, there's plenty of good buying at the moment, but unless everybody is going to get laid off, or can't pay...

[Jeffa]

With world share markets volatile

NZ house prices crashing (yes crashing)

The current climate is anything but calm ....

[Jeffa]

A lot of it is to do with the economy, when there's plenty of easy money being splashed around people feel rich and there's a lot more foot traffic in the big cities.

When there's less liquidity, the masses hunker down at home to fight inflation, this simply highlights the undesirables...

[Jeffa]

New Zealand was the first advanced economy to start raising interest rates, we were the first economy to contract as a cause, the U.S and other advanced economies will likely follow suit as they begin to raise interest rates aggressively.

I believe New Zealand may already be in a recession....

[Jeffa]

...

[Jeffa]

^^ Although there is still plenty of room for downside in various asset classes,

I'd recommend holding onto your assets for a violent rebound coming in the next few years.

[Jeffa]

Fed raised OCR .75bp

NZ economy shrank 0.2% last quarter,as the RBNZ continues to increase interest rates a recession is all but guaranteed.

1 more negative quarter equals a recession, 3 negative quarters equals the beginning of a depression.

I expect central banks...

[Jeffa]

I don't know if you read Tony Alexander, but even he has mentioned he is unsure what will happen to house prices after 2030.

He's a well respected economist, I'm an amateur economist, I can say what he can't.
The big fail as you quoted is basically a reset of the financial system,...

[Jeffa]

Long/medium term:

Should hyper inflation occur, What I plan to do before the end of the decade, which is only 7.5 years away is to be debt free .

Rental income:

In a hyper inflation scenario ,In theory at least, rents could double or triple or quadruple, although...

[Jeffa]

^^Interesting theory from Prebble.

Richard Prebble writing in the NZ herald pondered
that Labour will be trying to find a way to create an electoral crisis in order to call a snap election. Could Jacinda Ardern’s pending cabinet reshuffle deliver that crisis?

By October...

[Jeffa]

As interest rates rise the housing market and economy declines or crashes

Sooner or later central government is going to lean on the RBNZ for increasing interest rates and say..

"Hey Adrian! What are you doing? we can't afford to pay the interest on our sovereign debt,...

[Jeffa]

Question:
How do you out run a Lion?


Answer:
By running faster than the other guy....

[Jeffa]

Okay this is just creepy.. conspiracy anyone?

U.S.A- "Nationally, rents rose a record 11.3 percent last year"
https://www.washingtonpost.com/busin...g-rent-prices/




NZ -"That's an increase of $55 a week, up 11.2%."

...

[Jeffa]

I have some in the money put options, and have some short positions to help hedge my portfolio ,I'm still going long on my favourite companies and sometimes been adding long term call options when they become available, less risk.

My commodities pay well so everyone is different I guess....

[Jeffa]

This down market could possibly be the last chance for the middle class to stay in the middle class, I think once this inflation sets in there's going to be a massive disparity in wealth equality from this year onwards,

There is still time for those that are brave enough or who can access...

[Jeffa]

U.S 10y closed at 3.15% today,

Equity and Bond investors are expecting the Fed to pivot if it reaches about 3.2 to 3.3% ish.

If the Fed allows yields to rise further from this point, the world's economy is in serious trouble.

If this eventuates, the economy will...

[Jeffa]

Unless you invested in cashflow assets that can stay ahead of inflation like rental properties (rents up on average 11.2%) oil and other commodities, your real income and savings is likely negative.

Which is why hoarding cash is and will always be trash.

[Jeffa]

Some oil trader's are predicting prices could increase to $200 per barrel by next year, China fully reopening it's ports will increase fuel demand.


If this happens in conjunction with a weak Kiwi dollar, petrol can easily go over $4 at the pump.

At this point, many Kiwis...

[Jeffa]

My experience as middle management from the global financial crisis in 2008/9

Our company was more affected from global markets than most kiwi companies.

Head office needed to protect /increase cashflow,

Instructed me to cut off dead weight employees
...