Consultation on proposed RTA changes

[Perry]

Crunching the Numbers

My property manager says they've lost heaps of listings in the last 6 months - all because of people selling up due to the incoming regs. Mainly older mum and dad investor types. This is Auckland.

Is it possible (how and who could do it?) to quantify such figures on a city-by-city and/or nationwide basis?

I suspect that those sorts of figures are the only ones Dhil Twitford and Co would pay any attention to.

Residential rental business confidence = zero to minus 100%?

Could you get such figures from IPMA, Keys?

David - could you inquire further via your [current/old?] REA contacts?

Peter - what could the NZPIF do that was similar?

We only have a few weeks to obtain and collate such figures, right, Artemis?

[annie brookes]

..but..but….looking at Stats NZ household and dwelling estimates which have monthly figures issued quarterly shows that the number of owner occupied dwellings increases by roughly 2000-ish per quarter and the number of rented dwellings by roughly 4000 per quarter.
And that's the way its been tracking since their figures began in 1991 all the way up to June 2018.

So I cant see the argument that the number of rental properties is dropping at all (yet). Rental is increasing (still) faster than owner occupied which supports the argument of a gradual but relentless shift away from owner occupied as a proportion of dwellings. Up to June 2018 anyway....

[Nick G]

I bent over backwards to sell a tenant a rental. Introduced him to my broker, he somehow managed to get him finance, then the guy stopped returning phone calls. Weird.

[Perry]

My property manager says they've lost heaps of listings in the last 6 months - all because of people selling up due to the incoming regs. Mainly older mum and dad investor types. This is Auckland.

..but..but….looking at Stats NZ household and dwelling estimates which have monthly figures issued quarterly shows that the number of owner occupied dwellings increases by roughly 2000-ish per month and the number of rented dwellings by roughly 4000 per month.

And that's the way its been tracking for the last three years, including up to June 2018.

So I cant see the argument that the number of landlords and rental accommodation is dropping at all (yet). Rental is increasing faster that owner occupied which supports the argument of a gradual but relentless shift away from owner occupied as a proportion of dwellings. Up to June 2018 anyway.

This government is going to do what it chooses, regardless.

I tend to agree with Artemis. If it was in their election booklet bribes (aka comrades' manifesto), then that's what going to happen and any pseudo consultation or 'discussion' is the usual PR/spin farce.

But if the information you [annie brookes] obtained is correct, and Davo's information is also correct, where are the stats getting skewed? The gummint will always have great regard for stats which support their perspective! And scorn / deride the opposite figures, of course.

Is what David reports solely a JAFA thing?

What's the methodology of the Stats NZ survey?

I notice that the word "estimates" is used.

That suggests that the figures are not hard data, at all.

Just educated guess work, without undue emphasis on the 'educated' bit.

And, where's Winston First in all this?

[Keithw]

I had a play with figures from the Stats Dept link earlier in this thread and confirm Annies finding:
The total rental bonds keeps increasing, is somewhere near 400k now.
In recent months bond repayments have exceeded lodgements far more often than in the past but the total active bonds continues to trend upwards (with some minor ups & downs by a thousand or 2 either way) although the rate of increase is clearly slowing.
When looked at month on month eg Mar - Mar, Jul -Jul there is a definite dropoff of around 50% of the average, but most months still see some increase.

My guess would be owners selling with the property becoming a rental, along with some new apartment buildings coming on stream, is outstripping AirBnB and landlords selling up, for now.
Auckland makes up about 36% of the bonds

[Perry]

So this is based on actual bond lodgement (and refund) data?

I don't imagine the number would be significant, but bond-less rentals would escape those figures, then?

Why is the word "estimates" in what Annie referred to?

I don't doubt the figures reported by Annie or Davo.

I wonder at the reasons, methodology and conclusions.

Is there really a residential rental shortage? (Hawkesby / Hoskings experience) A few scathing comments following that item.

Where did this come from:

the number of owner occupied dwellings increases by roughly 2000-ish per month and the number of rented dwellings by roughly 4000 per month.

Presuming that 2000 of the 4000/month extra rentals are existing owner-occupied dwellings becoming rentals, 2000 extra dwellings every month should make a dent in housing prices and the addition of 4000 extra residential rentals should reduce the pressure on rental supply.

Shouldn't they?

[Bob Kane]

So I cant see the argument that the number of rental properties is dropping at all (yet). Rental is increasing (still) faster than owner occupied which supports the argument of a gradual but relentless shift away from owner occupied as a proportion of dwellings. Up to June 2018 anyway....

I agree that there aren't any clear figures which show the actual numbers of rentals vs owner occupied.
The only measure that I can think of is to look at the change in average rent.
If rents are increasing then the shortage of rentals is increasing - either by less rentals or more tenants.
If more landlords are selling up recently, then I would expect a spike upwards in the average rent.

[Bob Kane]

..but..but….looking at Stats NZ household and dwelling estimates which have monthly figures issued quarterly shows that the number of owner occupied dwellings increases by roughly 2000-ish per quarter and the number of rented dwellings by roughly 4000 per quarter.
And that's the way its been tracking since their figures began in 1991 all the way up to June 2018.

I those figures are true then the NZ housing stock is increasing by 6000 per quarter = 24,000 houses pa since 1991.
If that is true then we wouldn't have a housing shortage.
But we do.
So those figures don't seem true.

[Perry]

More on the rich ***** problems.
High-end properties more work for property managers

As for the thousands of new properties every month . . .

Tight Wellington housing market sees another rise in asking prices

The average asking price for a house in Wellington continues to rise, as the number of houses listed for sale drops. Wellington's average asking price increased 1.7 per cent in August, to $639,553, while some regions have experienced an even sharper rise. Wairarapa had a rise of 6.6 per cent, to an average of $520,127, and Hawke's Bay 3.7 per cent, to $521,138.

There does seem to be a problem with someone's figures, somewhere.

Could it be gummint depts. spinning the figures to suit their political paymasters?

[artemis]

More consultation now open - standards for heating ventilation, insulation, moisture

And draught stopping. Lots more here ...

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/housing-property/housing-quality

Email name and address to the below for a hard copy. 69 pages long so hard to read online.

[email protected]

[donna]

Thanks Artemis,

Yeah wow but looks like there's a huge lead time (2024) for the additions - heating in bedrooms, extractor fans in kitchens and bathrooms.

Still it was interesting to hear housing minister moan how 'Landlords' had gotten way with not having this stuff in place. Isn't HousingNZ the biggest 'Landlord' in NZ?

cheers,

Donna

[artemis]

Thanks Artemis,
Yeah wow but looks like there's a huge lead time (2024) for the additions - heating in bedrooms, extractor fans in kitchens and bathrooms.

Still it was interesting to hear housing minister moan how 'Landlords' had gotten way with not having this stuff in place. Isn't HousingNZ the biggest 'Landlord' in NZ?

cheers,
Donna

I guess they need plenty of time to build all the new social housing they will need as landlords give up. Nice big bill coming up for taxpayers.

[foss]

No need to email for it. Just download it directly from link here:

https://www.mbie.govt.nz/info-services/housing-property/housing-quality

THere's a survey too.

I can't believe promoting heaters in bedrooms. I didn't think that's safe? Heaters not required in owner occupied homes this is shocking. What about a new build rental? Would need bedroom heating too bonkers. Some single bedrooms in rentals won't be able to fit as heater. THen no one uses them for the cost. Plain dumb

[foss]

We are a democracy and need to stand up for our rights. We loose if we snoose and let the naysayers win. Make a submission no matter how brief but make it count. Deluge them in submissions then they can't ignore you. Thats whate renteres united will be advocating no less!

[foss]

Yep I did the same as offered to my tenant as a RTB and they couldn't even manage that!