Speculation & Gold

[Austrokiwi]

Statement.
It would seem the article missed the recent debacle of MF Global shenanigans?

Given the time frame the analysis covered I think the MF MF Global shenanigans would be a tiny blib. What I found interesting was the long term view that gold under GBP 200 was over sold and over 800 Pounds was over bought. The analysis also suggests gold has not yet matched its all time high of over 1200GBP(inflation adjusted) in the 1500s. I am not so much as going long as still holding my position in gold.

[Commercial Dan]

Of course there is a long way to go in the gold market, any half wit could work that out!

[Austrokiwi]

Of course there is a long way to go in the gold market, any half wit could work that out!

IS this a joke? Surely its not possible that you don't understand the term "Long" in regards to investing and speculating?

[rocket3]

Gold has been a good currency play lately and into the near future I feel.
IMO commodities dollars like the NZ and AUD will be sold off into the new year and if you have bought gold recently you will be hedged and winning.

Gold producers have never seen it so good. On sayng that I think the biggest upside now will be Silver!
There is less silver above ground than gold and being an industrial as well as a precious metal it is consumed not just hoarded.
It is more likely silver will double from here long before gold will..

I have taken a position in CCU (Cobar Consolidated Minerals) to try and take advantage. Possibly the best Silver play in oz IMO. Ramp up production starts around March. Its a good story for those that might be interested...

cheers

[Austrokiwi]

from a permanent bull

theres one commentator who is always a bull but now reflects on another view. I think at the moment no one can predict golds direction:

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=24398&et_mid=527343&rid=2195231

[muppet]

Phew
Large drop in the gold price this morning.

Down $60 for the day.
Down $209 in the last 30 days.
But up $175 for the year.

[Austrokiwi]

Now theres panic selling and on the technical charts there has been a death cross (50 day to 60 day moving average crossing under the 200 day average) When the Northern hemisphere markets open Gold could go into free fall with this sort of panic US$900 is not an absurd possibility.

http://www.thestreet.com/story/11344974/1/gold-prices-sink-enter-danger-zone.html

[eri]

it dropped a lot

during the lehman shock moment in 2008 too

only to come roaring back

however this time the drop doesn't look as sharp

still more expensive than platinum...

[Austrokiwi]

it dropped a lot

during the lehman shock moment in 2008 too

only to come roaring back

however this time the drop doesn't look as sharp

still platinum...

Not sharp??? It hasn't finished yet yes it could bounce back. My fear is as gold has departed from its long term fundementals and because the ETFs have changed its trading dynamic ( possitively correlated with the share markets as opposed to the previously Negative market correlation) It could fall considerably further. We will get an indication of how far the drop will go when the NY and Chicargo sharemarkets open the stock to watch is GLD if that ETF sees a massive exit from gold ( very possible with that ETF) then we could see even more scary damage. The 2008 drop was marked also by a death cross.

[eri]

you're right

the drop has been as sharp

not the same in percentage terms but it's not over yet

[Austrokiwi]

Heres a long term bull who thinks this correction might go down to US$1300-US$1400 but thinks this won't effect the long term bullish trend.

http://www.kitco.com/KitcoNewsVideo/

Of course anything could happen and next week it could be up to US$1700 again. But as the guy says in the video with the Euro zone problems one would have thought it would have been well over US$2000 oz by now but it didn't respond as expected. {reinforces my view gold has become coupled to the equities markets).

I still hold the background concern that if gold hits US$1300 range inexperienced gold buyers who purchased on the hype will abandon ship and drive the price even lower.

[Austrokiwi]

LOL Heres an interesting take on gold. The writer acknowledges his predictions were wrong( how any one can accurately predict which way bullion prices will go at the moment is beyond me) and then goes on to say He suspects the US gvt is manipulating the silver price (and gold) price.

http://www.numismaster.com/ta/numis/Article.jsp?ad=article&ArticleId=24518&et_mid=530804&rid=2195231

With the Euro and American worries Gold based on traditional trends should be well over US$2000.00 oz but it isn't and some big players have taken a very unpleasant bath. On the other side of the coin: on the technical charts side Gold had a death cross last week and that normally portends a really nasty correction.....but Gold is heading up again. It seems the bears can't beat the bulls and the bulls can't put the bears to sleep. All the different opinions make for entertaining reading but I can't see any real clear opinion on what the trend will turn out to be. As always the risk to me seems greater than it was in 2003 and the upside potential seems to be hitting a glass ceiling. I think investing/speculating on rare whiskey would be a better bet than the bullion market at the moment. At the very least in the worst case scenario if the price collapses you can drink the contents.

[Perry]

On the other side of the coin . . .

What sort? Gold or silver?

I think investing/speculating on rare whiskey would be a better bet than the bullion market at the moment.
At the very least in the worst case scenario if the price collapses you can drink the contents.

I'll drink to that! What would
a gold/silver cocktail taste
like, anyway?

---

May all your tenants be happy and smiling
May they pay the rent on time and in full
May your festive season break be hassle-free
Bah! Humbug!

[muppet]

Hahahaha white gold leads the pack.

Dec. 28 (Bloomberg) -- Milk was the best-performing major commodity this year, topping gains in crude oil, cattle and gold, as surging U.S. exports of dairy products sent prices to their biggest annual gain in four years. Courtney Donohoe reports on Bloomberg Television's "Money Moves." (Source: Bloomberg)

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/83438518/

[Perry]

Holy cow! Someone's creaming
it and it's not us, it seems.