Speculation & Gold

[Austrokiwi]

Its funny reading all the hype about gold at the moment. I tend to agree with Eris view. However many bulls are saying gold is taking a breather and will then resume its march back to US$2000.00 an oz and beyond. The really astounding thing is Chartists seem to be ignoring their charts. Gold is in a death cross but it appears many are saying "this time its different" May be it is but the "this time its different" arguments didn't stop the GFC from happening. I have no idea where gold is going.......but there are a lot of commentators who are seem to be standing only on emotion.

[Austrokiwi]

With French and Greek politics making a sharp left turn the "normal" expectation for the gold price ( as a safe haven )would be going up, instead its heading down. For me this is more evidence that Gold has become positively correlated with the stock market indices (from 1971 to 2005 it was negatively correlated).

[Jumpin]

Recent poor economic showing in the US is possibly a fore-runner of more QE. That would herald a new interest in gold, or at least a higher price in USD.

As well as the Fr and Gr lurches to the left, you have the Spanish backtrack on bank bailouts. ie they will bail out the banks after all (with taxpayer Euros).
Expect a lot more uncertainty in Europe over the next few months/years.

Meanwhile the Aussies are spending up large with election bribes. 'Sharing the boom' Gotta love the lucky country!

[Austrokiwi]

embedded in this article is an interesting clip from CNBC first bill gates on gold then Warren buffet:

http://pragcap.com/why-warren-buffett-hates-gold

[eri]

gold ignoring all bad news from europe and still tanking

another $20 drop in the last few hours

that's $100 down in 2 weeks

[muppet]

Both oil and the NZ$ v US$ also dropping.

[TheLiberalLeft]

about time.

[Austrokiwi]

Interesting brief from an ardent gold bull. I have seen over the last few years entertaining articles on the gold manipulation conspiracy, so I suspect this writer will have upset a few ardent gold bulls with this:

http://lewrockwell.com/casey/casey121.html

[Realist]

I picked the top early at $1350 but at least I picked the top

[eri]

usa seems to be having a jobless recovery

which triggered the worst day in share trading for a few years

which shot gold up $80 overnight

4 years after lehman

it's very much like japan after 1990

1 false dawn after another

nothing too terrible happens

unless you bet the house on strong growth

and over time

peoples' expectation of future gov. support

are naturally conditioned

downward

[muppet]

And oil shot down in a big way as well,
eri.

[eri]

and nz's butter fat etc. commodities etc.

the market already seems to have factored in a greek default/exit

and now is coming to grips

with too big to fail spain

failing

interesting times

[Realist]

I suspect it has something to do with North Korea

[eri]

An Auckland-based gold-bullion firm, whose collapse is likely to cost investors $2.5 million, hired a cocaine-addicted chief trader who has been arrested more than a dozen times and, in 2000, was charged by the FBI after a probe of mafia-run financial firms in New York.

Grace Holdings NZ, trading as Bullion Buyer

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...as-coke-addict

[muppet]

Guenter Schiffmann/Bloomberg
Gold Set to Rebound on Expectation Fed Will Stimulate Economy

By Glenys Sim - Jun 20, 2012
Gold may rebound, after dropping for the first time in eight sessions, on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve may take steps to boost the economy amid signs of faltering growth, increasing demand for a haven.
Spot gold was little changed at $1,620.55 an ounce at 12:24 p.m. in Singapore. Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest exchange-traded product backed by bullion, were unchanged at a one-month high of 1,281.62 metric tons yesterday, the company’s website showed.
Gold prices almost doubled after the Fed bought $2.3 trillion of debt in two rounds of quantitative easing from December 2008 to June 2011. The central bank will review new economic forecasts as it concludes a two-day meeting today, and may announce further measures to spur growth after recent data in the housing and labor markets missed projections.
“Investors are exercising caution in case the Fed disappoints,” said Huang Fulong, an analyst at CITICS Futures Co., a unit of China’s biggest listed brokerage. “Gold above $1,600 has easing priced in and may sell off hard if some form of stimulus isn’t taken.”
August-delivery bullion was little changed at $1,621.20 an ounce after falling as much as 0.3 percent on the Comex in New York. Futures fell for a second day yesterday as a drop in Spanish bond yields eased concern that Europe’s debt crisis is worsening, offsetting a report that showed builders in the U.S. broke ground on fewer homes in May than forecast.
Central Banks

Central banks, the largest holders of gold, may buy more this year than the purchases of 456 tons in 2011 as countries diversify their reserves, according to the World Gold Council. Central banks are expanding reserves for a third straight year as prices head for a 12th consecutive annual gain.
“We have seen many countries, especially the emerging economies, buying gold during this economic turmoil,” Ashish Bhatia, the manager of government affairs at the producer-funded World Gold Council, said in New York yesterday. “Also, sales from central banks have dried up in the past couple of years.”
Spot silver was unchanged at $28.4475 an ounce after gaining as much as 0.5 percent. Cash platinum rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1,489 an ounce and was last at $1,486.50. Palladium was little changed at $629 an ounce.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/print/2012-06-20/gold-set-to-rebound-on-expectation-fed-will-stimulate-economy.html