How international market forces affect NZ property

[Jeffa]

Totally created by not putting the breaks on early with the money printing and going on a 4 month holiday.



You forgot immigration and union busting to suppress wages.
Immigrants to work as low paid slaves.
Union busting to stop the next generation of workers from keeping any wealth.

It's a non sustainable way to channel the money upwards.

They must know that these sort of (natural order) cheats will always cause systemic collapse.
Its juts the way reality works.
You cant cheat natural balances. ( for long).



Might be a good time to start.
They want it all.
Even yours... eventually.

Agreed 100%

[Jeffa]

Powell won't utter the words "soft landing" but he said the Fed wants to "use our tools" to keep the labor market and economy strong.

"We clearly have a chance at that outcome, and we’re all very, very focused on delivering that outcome."

[Jeffa]

Yeah, nah bro I’ll sit this one out…S&P500

2nd half 2024 there should be more opportunities to make money

[Jeffa]

If we are looking at 2 Fed rate cuts this year, possibly in their summer (our Winter )

We will potentially see the Kiwi head back up to about 63c by late winter

This will weaken our exports added to New Zealand already being in a double dip recession could have Adrian Orr cut the OCR by Spring which is what markets are pricing in

Keep in mind, the swap rates move ahead of actual cuts so we should see fixed mortgage rates fall in the kiwi winter

1/ King Jeffa predicts US sharemarkets “may” sell off by our winter lasting 1 to 3 months

2/ Wellington house prices will continue rising in Wellington over winter

3/ Auckland House prices will lag Wellington but surpass the capital’s gains in 2025 as the excess housing supply in Auckland turns into a deficit

4/ Christchurch ignores the rest of the country and moves along at its usual pace

5/ The Crusaders come dead last and The Blues begin a 20 year domination of rugby

Disclaimer :

Predictions are not investment advice although sports betting is and should always be considered as an alternative to investing in the sharemarkets or real estate.

King Jeffa has spokennnnnnnn….,,

https://www.instagram.com/p/C40Cm_FOJWz/?igsh=MTNrdmFwdWJpYjYw

[Jeffa]

Leaving aside the Covid dip NZ productivity has trend upwards for the past two decades. That helped house growth.

But since hitting a peak in 2021 the trend is downwards.

New Zealand has a productivity problem.

Potential economic growth drivers like farming and tourism aren't going to help much.

You can't get an extra litre of milk out of a cow. It’s really hard to get big productivity gains out of tourism.

NZ is weak in tech areas where productivity gains from small investments can be huge.

Low R&D investment, weak innovation and poor education system outcomes seal a future of reduced labour productivity versus peers.


So I stand by my earlier comment.

Low productivity will equal stagnant wages which won't assist house prices to double by 2030 from 2022 lows.

I’ll keep it simple

For government to run a surplus by 2027/8

Household and business will have to increase debt by 5% of GDP that’s roughly 40billion or a housing boom

Or

Exports , dairy, lamb chops, tourism, timber, seafood etc will have to quadruple in cost to get a surplus by 2027/8

Which scenario seems more likely?


The government that is in power is basically saying we need to turn on the money printer to get there

This is not explained in mainstream media because:

1: because woke young attractive journalists don’t understand

2: Old ugly Journalists have been paid to shut the fk up and don’t want you know.

[Jeffa]

^^ Here’s the problem with house prices doubling or tripling in 2030

House prices have already doubled since 2014

Did you buy then or even earlier?

Then why are you still working as a tax slave?

Because you are a consumer slave

[Jeffa]

As King Jeffa the great still believes in a higher power than the dollar which is becoming less common in New Zealand

Joe Biden as a so called Catholic basically shitting on one of the most holiest weekends in the Christian calendar being Easter has declared today (yesterday) trans gender day

This guy is sick using such a holy weekend on election year and yes this could effect NZ house prices as western civilisation continues to collapse .

[Jeffa]

RBNZ meets in 16 days to decide the OCR decision

King Jeffa gives it a 99% chance it remains the same

What’s the 1% chance of cutting ?

RBNZ cuts rates by 0.1% and goes on hold until the 2nd half, so no… the money printer doesn’t go brrrr but a responsible RB governor would assist a struggling economy without setting the economy on fire causing higher inflation, this will keep the kiwi low prior to Fed cuts, it will also add a small layer of protection to the housing market without sending inflation higher

Why just cut 0.1 no points?

Beacause the BOJ increased the OCR 0.1bp from negative rates to slow down their economy? Seriously? What the fk is 0.1 increase going to do to Japans economy? Send it into fken recession? Please don’t make me laugh

King Jeffa should be RBNZ governor

Jeffa already called this play from squirrel mortgages , he’s been following King Jeffas playbook although King Jeffa gives it a low probability of cuts happening in a few weeks.

https://www.interest.co.nz/economy/127050/squirrels-david-cunningham-argues-reserve-bank-should-start-cutting-interest-rates

David Cunningham*


In a nutshell:

• Given how popular fixed-rate loans are in New Zealand, it takes one to two years for monetary policy decisions to trickle through to the economy, as people roll off existing loan terms.
• Decisions made on interest rate settings today will largely impact inflation outcomes in 2025 and 2026, not 2024.
• New Zealand’s economy is undoubtedly weak — and it has been for over a year, especially on a per capita (or per person) basis.
• The Reserve Bank’s (RBNZ) interest rate settings, although unchanged for 10 months, are still having a tightening effect on the economy. At current levels, there’s another 1% increase to the average mortgage rate still to come, which would take a further $3.5 billion p.a. out of Kiwi homeowners' wallets.
• Inflation is tracking down fast. There are some BIG numbers to drop out of the CPI calculation by September 2024, including the 1.8% inflation figure from the September 2023 quarter.
• In my view, the Reserve Bank Monetary Policy Committee should start lowering the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at the next announcement, on 10 April 2024, with a 0.25% reduction.

[Jeffa]

Anybody see lamb prices at the grocery stores? It’s been a few years since it was this cheap

Lamb was sitting at a low $5.50 a kilogram on last week’s meat schedule compared with about $9/kg last season

Now imagine what’s going to happen to our farmers if the Fed cuts rates and the Kiwi dollar becomes more expensive

Fk the lamb chops, our economy is teetering on collapse

Fk worrying about inflation

We got bigger fish to fry

While everyone is being distracted

Sheeple haven’t realised commodity prices have gone deflationary and are now the same price as the late 1997

We are heading into deflation or should we say depression.

[Jeffa]

^^^^The S&P GSCI® is a composite index of commodity sector returns representing an unleveraged, long-only investment in commodity futures that is broadly diversified across the spectrum of commodities. The index consists of 24 commodities from all commodity sectors - energy products, industrial metals, “agricultural” products, “livestock” products and precious metals but its exposure to energy sector is much higher than other commodity price indices

[Jeffa]

If commodity prices continue the same path over the remainder of the decade, come 2030 we may have already sent rates negative or begin too,


This scenario plays into King Jeffas bull case of house prices tripling in value from 2030

This will all but guarantee a capital gains tax introduced by the next Labour after 2 terms of a center right government.

[Frezzinghot]

As King Jeffa the great still believes in a higher power than the dollar which is becoming less common in New Zealand

Joe Biden as a so called Catholic basically shitting on one of the most holiest weekends in the Christian calendar being Easter has declared today (yesterday) trans gender day

This guy is sick using such a holy weekend on election year and yes this could effect NZ house prices as western civilisation continues to collapse .

Just shows what side this evil puppet sits on! Incoherent fool.

[Jeffa]

Big US Goldman Sachs shifted view for just 1 rate cut from Fed this year

Taking a view the Fed will continue to fight inflation this year keeping yields high

King Jeffa sitting on large cash earning 4.8% so will will continue to play it safe while market figures out what’s happening with inflation and will pull the trigger when required.

[Jeffa]

Big US Goldman Sachs shifted view for just 1 rate cut from Fed this year

Taking a view the Fed will continue to fight inflation this year keeping yields high

King Jeffa sitting on large cash earning 4.8% so will will continue to play it safe while market figures out what’s happening with inflation and will pull the trigger when required.

Implications for NZ property market

Not much, mortgage rates remain the same, deposit rates remain the same, kiwi economy already fked so this puts the power back into Adrian Orrs hands and it’s up to him if he wants to fix the mess he caused.

[McDuck]

This is not explained in mainstream media because:

1: because woke young attractive journalists don’t understand

2: Old ugly Journalists have been paid to shut the fk up and don’t want you know.

Sorry buddy.
Totally wrong... yet again.

The old system has run to the end of its practical application.
like a plant that has reached the size of its pot.



It was a good 50 year run while it lasted.
Thank you Richard Millhouse Nixon.
Who knew you meant 50 years when you said "Temporarily".
I suppose time is relative.
None of the things you think will work can work any longer.
There's a new game in town.
When you finally do figure out your part in it.. you won't like it one bit.
You were only a temporary store of wealth for a longer plan.
Thanks for collecting and holding it for us.
We honestly couldn't have done it without you.
We'll have it back now thanks.
Anyway, you cant take it with you...
Trust me.
All I have is Leonid Brezhnev is poking fun at me down here because,
he's figured out how the illusion of wealth was created.