Renters in gun as market shrinks

[Learning]

Cantabury is over supplied because after the earthquakes every builder and his dog went there to build and repair houses. They didn’t slowdown until they had surpassed demand for the region. The effect was twofold, too many houses in one area and not enough builders/completed projects in the rest of the country.

[VirtualT]

Big drop over a short period. Any thoughts on reasons? Winter season perhaps?

never seen such a big drop as this

[Viking]

When rentals are in demand why would a PM bother to advertise.
It just becomes a time consuming embarrassing exercise to deal with the unwashed.

The best thing the last Govt. did was to buy up all the old concrete block motels and put the unwashed into them.
Notice how the stories of people living n the streets has gone now that Jacinda has been in charge for three weeks. Gone! Problem solved. Apparently. It takes a fairy with a wand full of fairy dust to do this.

[Davo36]

It takes a fairy with a wand full of fairy dust to do this.

Not just any fairy mate. A very very earnest fairy.

[Nick G]

I think they look at peak season. My PM says 50% drops year on year for 3 years now.

How on earth did they come up with those figures of 69% drop.
My records indicate that on 1 November 2016 there were 756 properties advertised to let in the Wellington Region compared with 733 on 1 November 2017. That is a drop of 3% not 39%. On 2013 census night there were 46,000 private rentals in Wellington. This gives them a vacancy rate of 1.57%

Compare that with Nelson / Tasman. On 1 November 2016 there were 126 properties advertised compared with 87 on 1 November 2017. That is a drop of 31%. On census 2013 there were 8750 private rentals in Nelson / Tasman. That is Wellington rental market is 5.2 times more than Nelson. The Nelson vacancy rate is 0.99%

Is this a case of creative journalism or just blatant false reporting.

[Glenn]

I think they look at peak season. My PM says 50% drops year on year for 3 years now.

I seriously doubt any property manager or reporter looks at any figures apart from the numbers on the busses.
Here are some figures to confuse and educate everyone. Just looking at Wellington to let on Trademe at the beginning of each month.

Jan13	Mar13	Mar14	Feb15	Nov15	Feb16	Nov16	Feb17	Nov17
1805	1507	1570	1782	1186	1379	756	1008	733

So were do the reporters get their stories out of these figures?

[Perry]

Chickens Coming Home to What Roosting Places?

So were do the reporters get their stories out of these figures?

Labour Party HQ?

More follow up, here.

Victoria University of Wellington Student Association president Rory Lenihan-Ikin said a Government policy to increase student livings costs by $50 a week would be cannibalised by the increased price of accommodation.

"When I first got a flat in 2013 I was paying $150 and that was very normal. Now the average in the student suburbs in Wellington is $218, according to the most recent data we've had."

SIX REASONS 2018 COULD BE RENTERS' YEAR OF HELL
1. Potential cost increases due to regulatory demand could reduce investment in rentals
2. Potential tax changes to rental properties, including capital gains, could put off investors
3. Possible Government staff growth could increase demand
4. Credit restrictions on investor could reduce purchase of rentals
5. First-home buyers' inability to save a 20 per cent deposit stops transitions from rental to ownership
6. Affordability of new homes

[artemis]

....
So were do the reporters get their stories out of these figures?

At the moment they are quoting numbers reported by TradeMe. As previously discussed TM have a truckload of data and it is obvious they are not using snapshots on a day. I would say they are using new listings in a period. Nothing wrong with either measurement but they are apples and oranges. My recent experience (last month) with a Wellington city fringe rental is hundreds of TradeMe views in the first two days and a large pool of good applicants to choose from.

[Glenn]

At the moment they are quoting numbers reported by TradeMe. As previously discussed TM have a truckload of data and it is obvious they are not using snapshots on a day. I would say they are using new listings in a period. Nothing wrong with either measurement but they are apples and oranges. My recent experience (last month) with a Wellington city fringe rental is hundreds of TradeMe views in the first two days and a large pool of good applicants to choose from.

Oh absolutely completely agree 100%.But how does one get your hands on data that is not published. All I can do is use what is available. There is a reasonable co relationship so a reasonable assumption can be drawn from the snap shots.
There simply is no way one can have an intelligent discussion about hidden statistics that only party has access to and uses to achieve their own agenda. (as apposed to my agenda!)

[Perry]

19 Dec 2017
Wellington's rental shortage bites, flats snapped up in record time

[Learning]

“Massey University School of Public Health research has found that about 18 per cent of landlords do not collect or lodge bonds.“ - Russian roulette either way.

[Glenn]

19 Dec 2017
Wellington's rental shortage bites, flats snapped up in record time

I note that the article quote Grant Robertson. He says that Labour is addressing the problem through kiwi build. Perhaps he has not heard that the Kiwi build is for owner occupiers only and that Auckland and not Wellington is where the effort will be directed.
Clearly Labour is in denial just the same as National was and still is.
As of today 20 December there are a total of 88 rentals advertised in Nelson / Tasman for a population of 100,000. That is one vacancy advertised per 1136 people. In Wellington they have 890 properties advertised for a population of 513,900. That is 1 vacancy per 577 people. Compare that with Canterbury at 349 per vacancy or Auckland at 356.
I think Donald calls this fake news!

[Judge]

Glenn, the desperate tenants begging to rent my houses at 220 a room do not think it's fake news. And it's not even February yet. Your calculation of dividing rentals per heads of population is desperately flawed.

[Glenn]

The fake bit relates to how the politicians interpret the facts. What I do not like politicians and reporters saying that they are fixing the problem by doing something that will not solve the problem. How would you grade the level of desperation between One town or vacancy and the next. Does one judge it on tears, numbers applying, or $ being offered above asking price. Or how about gross rates of return?

[Judge]

Yes, I have to agree with you that politicians are unlikely to make a difference here. They need to encourage investment in new properties. Instead they discourage it...