Renters in gun as market shrinks

[flyernzl]

Chickens coming home to roost?

"The number of rental properties on the market has halved since last year, which will probably mean stiff competition for places and increasing rents, according to Trade Me.
The shortage means in October the average rental attracted 28 per cent more inquiries within the first week of being listed than a year ago, the online marketplace operator says.
Wellington was hardest-hit with 69 per cent less rental properties."

http://home.nzcity.co.nz/news/article.aspx?id=259311

[donna]

Yeah NZH has the article too and Andrew King says it's about 'adverts on Trade Me' and less need for advertising rentals. Plus he mentioned the plan to stop passing on the letting fee to tenants so that will shrink the adverting spend too. Other reasons for the drop....

from the NZH article

Trade Me did not cite any specific reasons for the big volume drops. But short-term holiday-style rentals such as Airbnb and fewer landlords buying investment properties due to new tax regulations are thought by others to have pushed rental stock numbers down.

I reckon AirBnB is definitely having an impact. Good $$, less regulation and hassle.

cheers,

Donna

[artemis]

So, Wellington down 69% in the year to October. Yes it is complex with multiple reasons, and indeed only TradeMe rental ads, but trends do tell a story. For example the comparable figure for Wellington for year to April 2017 was 65% and the crunch is still to come here in Jan/Feb.

However the recent figure for Auckland is 35% compared to 42% year to April. Perhaps that is a sign of a slight easing in demand (probably not).

In Wellington especially that is a whole lot of people in serious stress because TradeMe is where they look for a place to live. If vacancy ads are down 69% now and will get worse ... well all I can say is blame the mean greedy landlords.

Easy target. Until they say enough.

[Nick G]

Hearing from my PMs a 10-15% rent rises accross the board for my Wellington places in 2018.

That’s one way to fix the negative gearing issue - regulate investing so rents go up!

[Glenn]

So, Wellington down 69% in the year to October. Yes it is complex with multiple reasons, and indeed only TradeMe rental ads, but trends do tell a story. For example the comparable figure for Wellington for year to April 2017 was 65% and the crunch is still to come here in Jan/Feb.

However the recent figure for Auckland is 35% compared to 42% year to April. Perhaps that is a sign of a slight easing in demand (probably not).

In Wellington especially that is a whole lot of people in serious stress because TradeMe is where they look for a place to live. If vacancy ads are down 69% now and will get worse ... well all I can say is blame the mean greedy landlords.

Easy target. Until they say enough.

How on earth did they come up with those figures of 69% drop.
My records indicate that on 1 November 2016 there were 756 properties advertised to let in the Wellington Region compared with 733 on 1 November 2017. That is a drop of 3% not 39%. On 2013 census night there were 46,000 private rentals in Wellington. This gives them a vacancy rate of 1.57%

Compare that with Nelson / Tasman. On 1 November 2016 there were 126 properties advertised compared with 87 on 1 November 2017. That is a drop of 31%. On census 2013 there were 8750 private rentals in Nelson / Tasman. That is Wellington rental market is 5.2 times more than Nelson. The Nelson vacancy rate is 0.99%

Is this a case of creative journalism or just blatant false reporting.

[artemis]

Glenn the numbers come from Trademe. Their report is below, and there is some data info in the small print.

ETA It does not appear to be a snapshot on a specific day but listings in the period (looks like a month).

https://property.trademe.co.nz/market-insights/rental-price-index/number-of-rentals-halve-nationwide/

[Glenn]

“The number of available rentals in the Super City dropped 35 per cent on last October and we are beginning to see the effect on prices,” said Mr Jeffries.
Sorry but here is what they said about Auckland. Available rentals is what is advertised to let surely! They are not talking about turn over.
Auckland had 3893 rentals advertised (available) on 1 November 2016 and 4147 on 1 November 2017. That is not a 35% drop it is a 6% increase. That is why the rental price level in Auckland only went up 2.9% compared with Nelson / Tasman 12.3%.
There is clearly something fishy going on. Perhaps Jefferies is just out of his depth when it comes to counting and school boy level mathematics.

[VirtualT]

For the last few years I have tracked the number of rentals and for sale listings for Tauranga on realestate.co.nz as I have a couple of rentals there.

The last few data points (for rent)

12/06/2017	197
29/06/2017	225
8/07/2017	217
20/07/2017	212
17/08/2017	200
25/09/2017	163
17/10/2017	158
26/10/2017	165
1/11/2017	99
8/11/2017	109
15/11/2017	110

[artemis]

“The number of available rentals in the Super City dropped 35 per cent on last October and we are beginning to see the effect on prices,” said Mr Jeffries.
Sorry but here is what they said about Auckland. Available rentals is what is advertised to let surely! They are not talking about turn over.
Auckland had 3893 rentals advertised (available) on 1 November 2016 and 4147 on 1 November 2017. That is not a 35% drop it is a 6% increase. That is why the rental price level in Auckland only went up 2.9% compared with Nelson / Tasman 12.3%.
There is clearly something fishy going on. Perhaps Jefferies is just out of his depth when it comes to counting and school boy level mathematics.

Could ask Trademe, but there is a big difference between a snapshot number on a single day and the number advertised in a period. When a vacancy is advertised, it is available. When it is taken down it is not. (Our last Wellington vacancy, advertised in October, was advertised on Trademe for only 8 days. That is pretty much usual for our places.)

[artemis]

For the last few years I have tracked the number of rentals and for sale listings for Tauranga on realestate.co.nz as I have a couple of rentals there.

Big drop over a short period. Any thoughts on reasons? Winter season perhaps?

[Glenn]

Could ask Trademe, but there is a big difference between a snapshot number on a single day and the number advertised in a period. When a vacancy is advertised, it is available. When it is taken down it is not. (Our last Wellington vacancy, advertised in October, was advertised on Trademe for only 8 days. That is pretty much usual for our places.)

Yes very true. There is clearly a difference between a so called "snap shot" and actual turn over. I check the Nelson figures more than once a day. There is a clear connection and relationship between snap shot and turn over. I observe some listings that never change. You only pay on new listings and even get a free "re-listing" within a set period.
Some people have several vacancies but only advertise one. So what I have observed over a long period of many years (as apposed to a snap shot of observation) is that yes there are always a few wild cards that appear. The actual numbers on Trademe are not 100% accurate on any one day. They are always undercounting. However I do not believe that the errors vary from one town to the other. Sure Real Estate .co . nz and a few other sites have a few adverts for both letting and sales but in the end of the day Trademe are a reasonable litmus test of the market.
However what I do object to is Jefferies of Trademe claiming the likes of Wellington is the best performer when in fact it clearly is not.
I strongly object to attention given to Auckland and Christchurch with claims there are property shortages there when in fact properties are sitting around with owners desperately looking for tenants or buyers in Canterbury.
False news is one way of putting it.
I just want to know how do people read something very different and in direct opposition to me.
One of us must be wrong. Who is the liar.
How do you know when they are telling the truth?

[Glenn]

https://property.trademe.co.nz/marke...ve-nationwide/

The trouble is with the small print if you read it and work out who they quote as authority for their conclusions you have to ask?
This is who the Lucy is.
Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard and Professor Philippa Howden-Chapman are part of the He Kainga Oranga/Housing and Health Research Programme at the University of Otago, Wellington.
I have read her stuff. You may as well read and believe Lucy the film star.
These two lovely ladies have a serious agenda and truth about why children are getting sick is all your fault!
Hold on there. I will just reach for another Tui.

[artemis]

The trouble is with the small print if you read it and work out who they quote as authority for their conclusions you have to ask?
This is who the Lucy is.
Dr Lucy Telfar Barnard and Professor Philippa Howden-Chapman are part of the He Kainga Oranga/Housing and Health Research Programme at the University of Otago, Wellington.
I have read her stuff. You may as well read and believe Lucy the film star.
These two lovely ladies have a serious agenda and truth about why children are getting sick is all your fault!
Hold on there. I will just reach for another Tui.

If you want to know the real agenda, check out the Health Research Council's annual reports to see the millions and millions that fund this (and other) agenda driven research.

To give these researchers credit though, they do assiduously follow up on their research - eg their rental warrant of fitness. (Also generously funded of course.)

[Bob Kane]

To give these researchers credit though, they do assiduously follow up on their research - eg their rental warrant of fitness. (Also generously funded of course.)

I would have to agree with this.
As I understand it, Lucy and Philippa looked at P smoked in a house to see if it's a problem/danger to tenants.
After scouring the world for scientific research and data, they couldn't find a single instance where a tenant developed any medical conditions from living in such a house.
They then dropped P from the WOF checklist.

[Glenn]

So to bring the thoughts back to where they started. Are the PTers saying that Nigel Jefferies of trademe is talking the same sort of rubbish that Lucy and Philippa are.
Clearly we have places like Canterbury that are seriously over supplied with rentals and lots of spec homes are not selling. Goodness even Nick Smith MP says that Canterbury supply has caught up with the demand there.
What I want to know is how can Trademe get away with claiming numbers have gone down when in fact they have gone up?