Auckland Housing Affordability

[Davo36]

seems to be the rise of the pacific rim

Yes the Pacific Rim for the Chinese, and England for the Ruskies.

[eri]

probably a good thing

fewer killings

[Perry]

Oh, dear!

YET ANOTHER FAILED PREDICTION

Warning to Auckland home buyers: 'The game's over'
29 March 2017

ANZ's chief economist says "the game's over" for Auckland's housing boom, and warned New Zealand's largest city is now heavily exposed to the risk of rising interest rates. While Auckland has a major shortage of new houses being built at a time of record migration, Cameron Bagrie said the real driver of house prices were low interest rates. With mortgage rates already climbing, Bagrie said higher borrowing costs would trump the supply shortage. "I think the big driver is interest rates, and interest rates are heading up," Bagrie said.

". . . and interest rates are heading up."

That was two years ago that the ANZ's chief soothsayer made that prediction.

Anyone noticed interest rates "heading up?"

---

Proposed letter

Dear ANZ
About Cameron's terms and conditions of appointment . . . .

[eri]

currently westpac are offering

4.05% for 1 year

3.99% for 2 years

https://www.westpac.co.nz/home-loans/interest-rates/

this could be read many ways

the way i read it

rate are low

and going lower

[Davo36]

Perry, maybe it's not about whether they're wrong or right, but how convincing and educated they sound when they're saying it.

That and of course no one but you follows up 2 years later

[Don't believe the Hype]

YET ANOTHER FAILED PREDICTION


". . . and interest rates are heading up."

That was two years ago that the ANZ's chief soothsayer made that prediction.

Anyone noticed interest rates "heading up?"

---

Proposed letter

Dear ANZ
About Cameron's terms and conditions of appointment . . . .

Bagrie is no longer chief economist at ANZ. And he was never that bright either. I heard him speak at a breakfast where he talked of the tax advantages of residential Property investment. He was challenged on it by a member of the audience and after fumbling about admitted there was no tax advantage.

what a muppet

[Perry]

Perry, maybe it's not about whether they're wrong or right, but how convincing and educated they sound when they're saying it. That and of course no one but you follows up 2 years later

I wonder if we should pose some less-than-obvious questions? E.g.

How might it be to the ANZ's interests to have their e-con-o-mist predict that interest rates are on the way up?

[Perry]

Bagrie is no longer chief economist at ANZ. And he was never that bright either.

I thought that state was a prerequisite for the post of e-con-o-mist, most anywhere?

The only thing an e-con-o-mist can predict with any accuracy is the past. That should make them feel special, shouldn't it?

[donna]

Maybe a little off topic - but interest in moving here has gone up by 33% since the mosque' shootings and it's mostly coming from USA, UK so I can't see AKL falling out of favour nor our market following in the footsteps of Sydney etc.

cheers,

Donna

[Perry]

Twice as many Aucklanders losing money on their homes
4 April 2019

"Twice as many" is a bit of a hung comparitive.

What's it looking like to all you Auckland-based PT forumites?

[flyernzl]

Depends on the game you are in, Perry.

As a long-term landlord I dont really worry about some potholes in the road. I last bought in early 2016, so all my properties are still valued at well above what I paid for them.

Property traders may be finding life difficult, but no doubt the clever ones got out of that particular business a while ago and are now sitting under a tree with a good book and a glass of wine waiting for the storm to pass.

[Wayne]

And I was told prices never went down, hard to lose on property, safe as houses.

[Davo36]

Twice as many! Oh my God!

Well what I'm seeing is that prices are flat, might have fallen a bit, but not a lot.

Will always be the odd vendor who has to sell, but they are few and far between.

[Perry]

Twice as many! Oh my God!

That's why I asked.

Statistics can tell any story.

One laugh was a news item from many years ago that said unemployment in Switzerland had risen 66% in a year.

SHOCK! HORROR!

There were 5 people unemployed and the previous year's figure was 3 people.

[eri]

labour are starting to get the picture

but auckland council yet to smell the coffee

...solve the housing crisis - with a "growth corridor" between Auckland and Hamilton a key ingredient...

"We can break the land banking economy, and drive down the cost of urban land," Twyford said.

"We want to break the current land market model which sees the planning system and infrastructure financing logjam create an artificial scarcity of land,"

National's housing and urban development spokesperson Judith Collins said Twyford's comments about freeing up land and resource management were "fine".

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...housing-crisis