Sir Robert - The Coming Economic Crisis

[PC]

https://nopunchespulled.com/2020/04/13/the-coming-economic-crisis-and-its-political-consequences/#more-1228

[donna]

So a summary of that in my interpretation....

Sir Bob is not a Nat lover - but predicted the next Gov't will be National as the election is 6 mths away and the economy will be in a mess and change will be sort to get it sorted.

While our media love Jacinda - NZ's success with containing COVID-19 is not down to her but our geographical location, small population, and young people go flatting so unlike Spain, Italy etc where there is often 3 or more generations in one household we, Aus and Britain to some extent prefer to go it alone as soon as we can while we're young adults.

Our average age is a lot lower than most European countries too - Germany have bought theirs down with immigrants.

Tourism not likely to return to NZ for some time - probably years so low risk of virus spread. But also a BIG loss to the GDP.

What's going to happen next? SMEs (where most of us are employed) won't just start up again as many have or will soon be broke! 300,000 odd in tourism out of a job and where unemployment could be 10% - it's likely to be much higher could be 25% or more!

Don't expect a spending spree, if anything good has come from this - people have realised they waste money on stuff they don't need! The takeaways, the new car, clothes, etc. Saving is the new modus operandi to create a 'war chest' (my thoughts).

Bob also says don't expect a construction boom. People spend on renovations, new homes etc in boom times, not recessions and especially not a 'depression' worse than 1930s depression - (Bob mentioned IMF).

NO need for the lockdown - it was overkill. Keep old people contained but allow everyone else to work etc.

Bob never fails to entertain and I love his summary of some key lockdown rules that are really unnecessary - e.g.

Why can't you lockdown in your holiday home?

Exercise - only do it within the vicinity of your home - what's the difference if you walk for an hour for a change of scene? And why can't you go swimming? The police are at the beach anyway and roughly one person a week drowns so why stop the masses from taking this form of exercise?

Stopping small kiwi businesses from opening and selling essential items is pure madness! If you can go and line up at the supermarket or the corner diary you can walk a couple of metres and do likewise at the local butcher or bakery!

And many more rules copied from Britain's rule book when it's like comparing apples with oranges - we have under 5 million people, UK has 70 million! Yet we're not following them when it comes to keeping the smaller outlets operating they are allowing the newsagents, hardware stores, hairdressers etc open but with rules so WTF we running our businesses into the ground!

And the most mental of rules - can not visit your GP - and now GPs are looking at ruin too.

Definitely worth a read.

cheers,

Donna

[Nick G]

There will certainly not be a construction boom unless it is government funded infrastructure.

[Learning]

Stopping small kiwi businesses from opening and selling essential items is pure madness! If you can go and line up at the supermarket or the corner diary you can walk a couple of metres and do likewise at the local butcher or bakery!

And many more rules copied from Britain's rule book when it's like comparing apples with oranges - we have under 5 million people, UK has 70 million! Yet we're not following them when it comes to keeping the smaller outlets operating they are allowing the newsagents, hardware stores, hairdressers etc open but with rules so WTF we running our businesses into the ground!

Every open door is a risk. Why open 10 doors when one will do? If the argument is "What's good enough for the UK is good enough for us" then have a closer look at their stats.

They started their lockdown on 23rd March, two days before us. Much looser than ours and even then public bending of the rules is common. Despite starting 2 days before us and assuming their forecast of peaking on the 18th April is correct, they will be over 2 weeks away from getting to where we are now. Their infection per head of population is already 5 times ours with no signs of slowing. Helped with their higher population density of course but no doubt exacerbated by weaker restrictions.

[hawkeye]

Once it’s in the country our isolation makes no difference unless we do what we are doing. I think if they actually can trace where every last case came from and stamp it out completely then economically it’s still our best bet.
Though the elephant in the room is how much money countries who do let it go and kill all the old folk are saving on health care and age care in the long run. Haven’t heard any economic forecast mention that but surely it must impact long run projections. Bad taste to mention it.

Countries where it’s running out of control people naturally self isolate anyway so businesses still suffer. It’s not like they will have normal trading anyway.

[PC]

It's never going to be stamped out.
Can't even prevent the common cold and we already have vaccines for that.
No need anyway - the vast majority barely get a sniffle from it.

[PC]

Sir Robert - Saving The Nation

Brilliant idea!

https://nopunchespulled.com/2020/04/15/saving-the-nation/#more-1237

[donna]

Commonsense needs to prevail though as we can not be locked up (whoops locked 'down') forever. Going to level 2 isn't allowing us to roam free either. Tight boarder controls and social distancing is the new norm whatever level we're in. Thermal imaging in key areas like airports etc will also make sure sick people are wearing masks etc. Travelling beyond Australia may not be likely this year, but putting Australia in our bubble would definitely help our mutual tourism industries.

cheers,

Donna

[PC]

A real live Professor of health (rather than 'what would I know' me) on stamping it out:

http://www.covidplanb.co.nz/our-posts/grant-schofield-why-we-need-a-plan-b/

[hawkeye]

There is a chance they can stamp it out if they quarantine everyone at the border and manage to trace every new case and quarantine them along with their health workers. Otherwise if any contacts are allowed out for walks and supermarket shopping or home to family they will pass it on.

The common cold is so widespread obviously that one is out of the bag although they are already seeing way less respiratory illness.

[hawkeye]

Also anyone working in a University has vested interest as they can see all their money from overseas students drying up. Notice every one of these so called medical experts are from universities. Not real medical professionals that actually have to risk their own lives treating these infectious real people.

They should actually embrace the safety of NZ. Start marketing to the parents of potential next year students about how safe NZ is compared with the rest of the world. I’m sure mums and dads from other places would happily pay for the quarantine of their kids for 2 weeks to get into NZ if they had no chance of catching it here. The rest of the world?? Not so safe. We need to exploit that competitive advantage.

Also overseas elderly tourist. Start selling longer winter over holidays here including the quarantine. They are happy to sit on a cruise ships for weeks. Could the quarantine period be made into a luxury experience in up market hotels? Eg Queenstown? If there were no cases in NZ they shouldn’t have to isolate when they get home.

Also perhaps is a good time to sell citizenship to wealthy foreigners. Let them buy a plot of land and build their bunker so they have a bolt hole from the next pandemic. I know, not palatable, but lots of people are allowed in each year for free so if people want to pay a huge amount to have a place to escape to with their kids, on the condition they quarantine properly why not? They may pay the money and never come here. At least it would reduce the tax burden on future generations.

[donna]

Yes NZ should have a competitive advantage and there is no such thing as a bad idea. ThinkTanks start your engines!

On a side note, I saw my first coronavirus test today - in Raumati Beach. Doctor administering the 'up the nose' thing on an elderly lady in her car in the Doctor's practice carpark.

[hawkeye]

My main worry is how they are treating pilots and crew of cargo ships. If they are New Zealander are they allowed home between shifts? Presumably with no quarantine?

They almost need to make all aircrew on overseas flights non NZ citizens so they can quarantine here, and go home to another country. Sorry NZ crew.��
What about cargo and mail coming in from overseas. They need to let this sit for a couple of weeks before humans touch it surely if we’re aiming for no cases.

[donna]

Yes that's interesting - I am guessing the cargo is disinfected before it's loaded and the areas on both sides are regularly cleaned. Plus where the crew stay is isolated from the general public. Would be a good question for the PM.

[PC]

Professor John Gibson from Waikato.
The approach taken in New Zealand to dealing with Covid-19 may result in unnecessary loss of life.
The outbreak of a hitherto unknown disease poses an important new risk to humans, so it is appropriate to devote resources to mitigating this risk.
These risk mitigating resources mean some output is foregone.
In other words, our lives are going to be somewhat more risky and people will be somewhat poorer, than would have been the case without this new disease.
A key question for public policy is where to strike the balance between reduced risk and foregone economic output.

There are at least two grounds for concern about the New Zealand strategy.
First, the people making decisions are the same ones who botched the preparation for the arrival of Covid-19 and so there is little reason to have faith in the wisdom of their choices.
I say “botched” advisedly and would ask readers to consider the following four facts:
• Taiwan recorded their first case of Covid-19 on 21 January, a full month before New Zealand’s first case
• Taiwan usually has about three million visitors a year from China, while New Zealand gets about 400,000.
The gap is even bigger in terms of visitors to China (who posed a risk of spreading the disease upon their return)
• Taiwan has not had a lock-down
• Yet despite earlier exposure and much greater risk due to more travel to and from China, Taiwan has just 373 cases (16 per million) of Covid-19 while the rate in New Zealand is currently 17 times higher (266 cases per million)
Similar comparisons could be made with respect to Hong Kong or South Korea, who also provided lessons on management of this new risk.
The complacency by politicians and bureaucrats in New Zealand, who had the advantage of an extra month for preparation and much greater distance from China, is staggering.
Obviously that chance to respond to the risk in a low-cost manner was missed and so a very costly lockdown has resulted.
While we can hope for better decision-making going forward, there is little reason to be confident of this.