Financial Armageddon!!

[Davo36]

is that fair, is it sustainable - i don't know!

Fair? I don't care. Sustainable, of course it isn't.

a simple solution to nz's shortage of "workers" and "savings" is to settle on the endless growth model, where we import young hard workers to pay more in taxes than they currently cost in benefits, and sell our stuff to the highest bidders

And this is why were are here I guess. Only 2 sets of people believe in endless growth, madmen and economists.

[Perry]

Only 2 sets of people believe in endless growth, madmen and economists.

Which group do the W'gton woodenheads fit into, I wonder?

[eri]

which woodenheads?

the one's who promise "buy now, your children will pay later", that we elect

or the woodenheads who're supposed to keep that promise?



the issue is really with greedy voters who want to believe the unbelievable

than the snake-oil salesmen they trust to deliver, things they don't understand

like; kiwibuild + money for nothing

You really can fool some of the people, all of the time
Politicians pay a surprisingly small price for dishonesty

https://www.economist.com/international/2019/10/31/you-really-can-fool-some-of-the-people-all-of-the-time

[Davo36]

A bit of both I think!

[McDuck]

not about my ego duck

you say this to bob

Nice.
You're going in the right direction.
They were distracted by the small picture.
You're being distracted by the middle scale picture.
But, for a totally successful result, you need to think bigger.

do you have some Nobel prize in economics that we should know about?

'cause that's about the only podium that would make such rudeness understandable between normal adults

Yes, yes, I'm a terrible person.

Now perhaps you will say why you want us all to wait in ever longer and longer queues.
And how "more people" will be made to go to your small coal town, and stay there, with nothing for them to do?

[eri]

not about you

not about me

best to get back to sharing thoughts

about financial futures

[OnTheMove]

the issue is really with greedy voters who want to believe the unbelievable

Somebody speaks the truth on here.

"But prices have never fallen in NZ and 30% CG with no Tax is sustainable and as a 60yo I dont WANT that to change because soon I also get $350pw free while my politician will push Gen X up to 67yo just after my gen is all dead and gone, and I get that $350 even if I have $100k per annum from my assetts and I own my home, have a Porsche in the garage, a $1m launch in the marina and I got a free education at University"

You mean those voters? Yep 100% agree.

Well yeah this is what started the whole problem and is the crux of the problem in NZ and the so called shortage for immigrants in Auckland who dont have a hope in hell of paying Auckland rent let alone a mortgage.

You are right imo. But really its we dont have a single Poli with big enough man or lady nads to stand up and do the the right thing, raise interest rates, drop house prices by 30% median and put us back on the old path of 9% gains PA which was steady and plenty enough for those who wanted to buy and hold or those wanting to reno and sell etc.

The only way Jacinda is going to get Kiwis in Kiwi homes is by dropping the property prices.

It seems even though we have pretty much the worst global property market indicators, like the article i posted said, its a Bubble in an Iron Baloon. It will take a fairly major economic shift (recalling all debts etc) or its going to take a politician in NZ to do it by raising interest rates.

Draw a line across from 1999 pre 1st boom until now and Auckland median would be $650k ~. Thats what Kiwis need on a median income of $51k to get into a home and pay it down quick so that interest rate doesnt bite (or save and pay half the house price in cash). There is no way women can be stay at home homes and their family own a home any more and thats not good for our people imo. Im not saying pre school is bad. But putting babies in at 7 months old is a rough. IMO 3yo is about right.

Aus marches on through a bleak economic patch but still has property within median house price reach, free 9% super which YOU earn not the tax payer gives you in a pension, free medical insurance, even if its basic its a lot better and you get in and out a lot faster than NZ public health, plus over $50k~ its cheaper and better to have private.

And yet NZ and its horrible housing market, no investment in health, no investment in education, no investment in Small Business (thats a big one if you want incomes to rise and along with NZ GDP. Seriously do these voters want this country to become more sh.t than it is already? Dont get me wrong, I love NZ and even if Im a Jafa, I love Auck. But we need leaders who will correct the problem and then concenrate on those basics of any economy. Currenttly we are in a spending economy which is not good. People borrowing from their $1.4m house to buy a $600k Ferrari, fine, but drop that $1.4m to $900k, tough bickies you now have a $1.1m poor mans Ferrari.

Another option Polis have is to push Auck out into Satellite cities like Whangarei. Build some decent public transport. Buy Bill Gates recycled Nuke plants that have 0% chance of overheating and causing issues like the Tsunami on the 50s design Nuke plant and install fricken train lines in Auck not buses, provide people a platform on which they can work during the hour long commute..

Gates just needed somewhere to prove it works, unfortunately even though the US still uses old Nuke plants they wont be sold on new safe ones, so he sold it to China, but Trumps recent F ups with China stalled/crushed that, because it truely is the only safe option with zero carbon footprint and used recycled Nuke material.

https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/a25728221/terrapower-china-bill-gates-trump/

Although I think as brilliant and safe as it is, calling Terrapower is not the way to sell it to people who are Nuke plant paranoid haha.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TerraPower

The poor guy is spending his entire fortune on real world anthropology issues/charity on real world issues and keeps getting .... blocked by Polis.

Like eradicating the world of Polio simply by providing cheap effective toilets https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood...de-bills-brain

Polio, something most kiwis probably think was eradicated decades ago. And all it needs is simple sanitation, same issues London had with putting its sewerage into its drinking water 100s of years ago.

My point was more around using modern power plants, supporting small industrial based businesses with grants and tax breaks so they can pay higher kiwi saver rates, if we can get it up to 9% in 20 years, we will have within one generation the Pension tax based system eradicated.

There are so many things NZ could do to truely become a modern City/Country, at the moment its pretending, our currency is not an indicator of our real economy, its an indicator of our spending. The money used to avoid a property market crash in 08 (which Key should not have stopped) has simply been reused to create the second bubble of Private lending. 150% to our GDP.

So given how shot our property market is and how unaffordable it is and ranks worst globally in many factors, its not a case of crystal ball gazing IF it will occur, its more a case of WHEN and how much damage it could cause.

To guess that economist are likely looking at key property indices and at what point a downfall in our economy (when we stop spending the money injected by J Key) will halt a fall in our property market.

I also think the Polis need to scrap this idea of immigration resolving the people voting out of greed from getting the free fiscal tax based pension and push it into Winz. PROOVE you need the money, because the country as a whole needs it a lot more than millionaires hiding there money in Trust funds. If only Gareth Morgan had explained the cat issue and how they are killing our rare and some critically rare fauna, even in big cities. I think his overall policies are exactly what the country needs. No BS, just fix the damn problems with simple solutions. He is one millionaire noted who refuses to personally keep the pension. Who is the guy who publicly claims it and makes a mockery of it in the media? NZ needs a policy of extraditing certain individuals to far offshore islands ;-p.

I dont see any of this as doom and gloom, I see it as a win win. Kiwis get into Kiwi homes, long term investors will ride it out like they have in Ireland which has bounced back rather quickly and the country we will be back to sanity.

[OnTheMove]

a belated thanks for the compliment Davo

as i've spend about half my life overseas in bigger? countries with less generous social welfare spending

it seems obvious to me that nz simply can't afford more welfare spending without earning more through exports

Bingo again. I like you Eri. I too have spent half my life overseas but in countries that can afford better social services. Look at the aussie model as the most simplistic. There economy is largely mining, which is why they have taken a nose dive while China stalls etc.

But they still support Small Business, which is why they have no problem providing a Super System that works.

They provide grants to new business, a mentor in the same industry. The provide tax breaks to help keep not only small business alive but also to keep Superannuation alive.

Its that simple, we need to earn more than we spend (which goes back to your ethics on personal monetary ethos).

150% personal lending : NZ GDP

Is not a country producing goods and services, its one surviving off debt and using that debt to spend retail.

I agree we need to produce more and export more, but smarter businesses not agriculture etc.

AND we need to support our Small Business which is the main stay for a large part of our economy, whether they be a mum and pop retail shop or a franchise for fitting new tyres. If we simply provide an increasing Super System, we do not need immigration or housing to solve our TAX based pensions. We can eradicate them, which will be the prop to increasing a super system, divert the money.

In the mean time instead of Assett testing for Pensions, turn them over to Winz so only those who need the money get the money. And Im not saying someone who owns there home and has a boat and a car doesnt need a pension. More those that have provided there own Super Annuation who dont need the Tax hand out via Pension, do not need the money and it should be used to prop up an ever increasing economy and Super System.

I have no answer to how we provide a basic medicare, other than taking some of our tax and putting it in a separate organisation to the Governments fiscal budget. Thats essentially was Aus does. But we need a bigger GDP and less Debt for this to occur.

I agree with you nobody has all the answers. But the basics of a solid economy should be put in a framework outside the government so that we do not have to worry about every election destroying the good of the prior government towards these issues.

Health, Education, Small business and a Super Annuation increase over the next 20 years.

Lower our personal debt, increase our Income to Property price ratio by partly deflating the property market but also by an increase in Export businesses and Small Business to increase wages.

Yes it will hurt, but I dont think its a problem that should be diverted to the next gen, then the next gen etc. We all take a hit. But we keep pensions going via Retiree Benefit with WINZ for those that need it to survive (but have a fairly generous assett test threshold as people who have earnt their house, and car and boat and ALSO paid taxes along the way, still deserve some income to enjoy those assetts they have worked hard for and paid tax on).

[OnTheMove]

eri, you're a clever guy, surely you can see that immigration is not the answer..

The stupidest concept ever. It will inflate the problem not resolve it. Im with you Davo.

But I think the people and the Polis are starting to see the shortcomings with that plan.

Lets just hope its not too late to pull out of that system, a bit like "Kiwi Build" lol.

[OnTheMove]

You agree we are heading for a Ireland like crash?

Generally speaking, in NZ we don't have an excess of houses (like Ireland did).
If prices drop people just won't sell - unless they have to.
So if they can continue to pay the mortgage (owner occupied) then will just do that.
So prices standing still is much more likely than prices precipitously dropping.

The reasons for a NZ crash are vastly different to the Ireland situation, but the outcome could be similar.

Yes you are right, re people holding onto houses. But it doesnt negate NZ's standing in key property market indicators. Im surprised we bloomberg gave us second most likely to crash and not first to be honest.

What you allude to is why I posted that article on our property bubble being made out of Iron or something to that regard. Ie its definitely over inflated but how or why it will burst is a GUESS at best. So yes that long long plateua of nothing for decades is more likely while incomes slowly come into line with property prices. In the mean time personal lending should cease as house sales crash, which is a good thing as it is one of the major concerns and if anything occurs in our economy to either increase mortgage rates to 8% plus Foreclosures will start occuring due to the lending.

I think its more about providing a better economy than worrying about a crash, which would rebound within a 1-2 decades anyway. Either way it will only be those that have borrowed outside there means that get caught out.

Ireland has bounced back. Yes a crash would hurt short term, but if we get back to a lower median income to property price, we can get back to a steady property market with 9% PA increases, not some 20 year plateau.

[eri]

first japan, with a falling population

now italy, lowest? birth rate in europe

giving away homes in depopulated areas

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/world/2019/11/free-real-estate-a-town-in-sicily-is-giving-away-houses-free.html

..

Though the official data shows that Italy’s population was growing until 2015 and according to a Eurostat projection it will stabilize within the next decades, the number of indigenous citizens is shrinking with an astonishing pace: every year by a quarter of a million, and this decline will accelerate. That means that the projected demographic growth can only be achieved by mass migration from Africa and Central Asia. Currently most migrants in Italy are from Romania but that number is declining rapidly. There will be less and less migration from other European countries because all European nations are in a dramatic demographic decline and because due to the prolonged Italian economic crisis the country is not a prime destination for people from other European states.

The Italian fertility rate (of indigenous and naturalized female citizens), i.e. the number of children per woman, is 1.34, which is far below the replacement level of 2.1. Much the same is true of the whole European continent. In this respect Europe resembles Japan.

https://gefira.org/en/2018/01/18/the...r-own-country/

[OnTheMove]

first japan, with a falling population

now italy, lowest? birth rate in europe

giving away homes in depopulated areas

What bought that fact to your attention Eri???

Spain would be the country I would like a free home in and to retire. At least they have a sensible cannabis policy, strangely more catholic than NZ yet NZ cannabis propaganda is driven by pentacostal cult movements aimed at the 50+ Nats.

I just hope when they run the education programme they listen to experts not idiots like Mike Hosking who was agist and misogynistic when he had Chloe Swarbrick as a guest on ZB but instead of letting her speak he basically shut her down by interuping her, wtf sort of Journalist is this idiot. Didnt get partitioned to be banned from NZ media?

Anyway Helen Clarke foundation is 100% behind it and her arguments would make a total fool of this 55yo idiot trying to look like Justin Bieber with his messy here and 25yo clothing.

To quote herald

"Come back to me when you're 54 and have lived a bit of life and understand, and have been through a bit and know what you're talking about."Swarbrick said it was okay to dismiss her because of her age, but the debate needed to be based on evidence. "If you want to dismiss me, Mike, that is all very well and good, but I don't think that is a very good or useful way of engaging."

Hoskings whole debate was based on one misleading fact around Colarado drug driving testing which rose 400%, well thats what happens when you START testing for it Mike you moron and it didnt account for how long cannabis stays in the system, its simply a figure that at some point those drivers and smoked cannabis, not that they were STONED. And secondly fatalities have fallen year on year since its introduction. What a rude prick he is. A total socio path narcissist much like his wife. I cant believe how belittling he was of Chloe with his ONE fact that he kept referring to as he uses facts implying she doesn't, has no meaningful data other than at some point the person had smoked cannabis, but were below the range to cause impairment which is the bit Mike didnt research before making a fool of himself.

Facts Mike, Facts that actually have some relevance https://reason.com/2018/08/27/cannab...atalities-fal/

i sat through it thinking how can we have people on a reputable Radio station, insult an MP so severely due to her age and gender, when his one FACT is totally irrelevant anyway. What a smug prick he was, hanging onto one FACT as he called it, he uses facts implying Chloe has none. When his one fact he must have found on the net 10 mins before the interview is completely misleading.

Anyway, Eri I see in the future most countries falling in infant totals as most people realise how messed up the world is and dont want to bring a child into it. Women are definitely laaving the decision much later and Id say 75% of my rather concerning number of Exs did not want kids. I have no facts on NZ though. But thats just my experience. All nice ladies, most just felt it was a burden they had no aching desire to take on board.

[McDuck]

not about you

not about me

best to get back to sharing thoughts

about financial futures.

have you defeated them?
your demons.

Claps.

From a medieval standpoint,

You may have just defeated one of them.

The first one in fact.

Congratulations.

But he'll be back.

and soon.

But good work all the same.

Although the ad hominem attacks were rather good , I thought.


Anyho, as you say, back to the topic.

here:

https://ourworldindata.org/world-population-growth

.

[OnTheMove]

Hardly Mcduck ;-p. NZ is supposedly majority Chinese ethnicity by 2050. One of the reasons Im against race based parties, seriously how did anybody think that was a good idea. I suppose was the only way to get Maori representation. Now you got fools trying to create white supremacist parties. The next NAZI like party will be in NZ, we will lose our democracy nooooo ;-p

Perhaps thats what we should do with out unpopulated homes give them away. I see plenty around Central Aucks. But wow that pic really is awesome/gothic esque is in vogue. Imagine living there.

Eri on the subject of Baby Boomers you raised (specifically National voting ones like Mike Hosking and his moron wife). This is a bit of a giggle given how much rubbish Mike Hosking threw at Chloe, its now an insult to call a Natty a boomer ;-p. Time for Helen Clarke to take over Labour for a bit and insert this Cannabis legislation while Jacinda just talks and talks and talks.

https://twitter.com/NZParliament/status/1191821898721529856

[eri]

the boomers thing is interesting

when the term was coined in the 50s it referred to people born after the war up to the early 60s when the birth spike began to taper off



in nz the boom was over by 1961-62 https://www.stats.govt.nz/topics/births-and-deaths

i was born firmly outside the boom period and identify with the "generation x" as defined by douglas coupland in his book of the same name as early 60s to early 80s

nz birth numbers more precisely suggest 1961-1981

slowly however, for no other reason than round numbers? and lazy journalism the boomer cutoff year is now sometimes quoted as 1965, by which time nz births were well out of a boom

so for a gov. who are so happy to let people define their own sex + ethnicity

i think it's damn cheeky to try and move me from the generation i was born in, identify and suffered with

to the preceding arbitrary generation

solely it seems for the ability to throw stones at us



Generation X: Tales for an Accelerated Culture, published by St. Martin's Press in 1991, is the first novel by Douglas Coupland.
The novel popularized the term Generation X, which refers to those born from approximately the early 1960s to the early 1980s.