Dairy Woes

[speights boy]

Will it happen here? Yes, we won't be able to stop it.

That is the real LONG TERM danger.

China will own and control everything in the food chain back to their own people.
The land, the stock, the transport, the port, the shipping.

Some people call it investment.
Others call it buying up all the assets for total and absolute control of food supply.

[speights boy]

Disruptive El Nino a concern for NZ

She urged farmers to pay particular attention to El Nino.Ms Griffiths said New Zealand had already experienced "solid signs" of El Nino this year.

In New Zealand, an El Nino event could make western areas wetter, and the eastern seaboard drier than usual

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/ar...ectid=11488137

[speights boy]

This is another comment from the interest.co.nz article,
This is along the same lines as Donna's post.

"With the Chinese in play I believe Bill English has got it all wrong.

The banks historically have always pulled the plug early on farmers in NZ as soon as there is a protracted downturn looming.
This time the difference is the banks will be able to recover their debt quickly without any loss as the Chinese Government has told its people get out there and secure the food supply chain for your Chinese homeland.

So expect to see the Chinese take over all the highly geared dairy farms - there are plenty of them.
The banks will not hold back and their Aussie owners will not give a toss about the poor old Kiwi farmers.

If you watched the Sunday program about the Chinese taking over Aussie farms you would be shocked - the Chinese are buying the farms, processing the products, own the freight trucks and even taking over the port at Townsville all using Chinese imported labour.

They have the entire supply chain in their sights.
It's not good people but what can Bill English do about it - nothing!"

[Damap]

We have big El Nino issues here too. Stock dying in the fields, complete drought with no proper summer rain last year. It may not rain at all in my town till next year.

[Davo36]

Here's the link to the program Donna mentioned.

Not sure how much of it is fear or real.

[Bob Kane]

Mostly fear I think.
China is the big bad wolf at the moment but it won't last.
At some point the corruption and control will crumble and China will collapse.
It's got no credibility in economic matters.

[donna]

If the Chinese can buy up quick then they have secured the assets they need so how does that relate to how their economy performs in the future?

I suspect they are on a buying spree now while they have $$ as they know they may not have it if all turns to custard later on.

cheers,

Donna

[Bob Kane]

I suspect all the Chinese money floating around is borrowed.
When the Chinese share market goes pop, all the Auckland houses will be put up for sale.

[speights boy]

New price forecast is at $3.85.

Now watch the politicians spin that.

[PTILoveYou]

all the Auckland houses will be put up for sale.

im rubbing my hands with excitement

[donna]

I suspect all the Chinese money floating around is borrowed.
When the Chinese share market goes pop, all the Auckland houses will be put up for sale.

Okay. I thought Gary said these 'rich' Chinese had thousands stashed in savings. If they are just borrowing it - anything can happen.

[PTILoveYou]

Last night over dinner with friends, one of them as a mobile mortgage manager told me a singapore client was borrowing money to buy in nz at 1.4%

thats the first time i hear (credible source)about cheap money from asia.

[HouseWorks]

this is no time to be a dairy farmer unless already in the game in which case have to work hard and enjoy until it comes back. The economy will get through because of other "fields" being profitable.

[Wayne]

Last night over dinner with friends, one of them as a mobile mortgage manager told me a singapore client was borrowing money to buy in nz at 1.4%

thats the first time i hear (credible source)about cheap money from asia.

I hope they hedge - the exchange rate risk would easily outweigh the low interest rate.

[speights boy]

Banks will be very concerned.

Why doesn't Fonterra have reserve prices at the auctions ?

Fonterra overshoot on 2015 advance payment worsens 2016 farmer cash flows

Milk prices have dropped so dramatically that Fonterra Cooperative Group effectively overpaid farmers under an advance payments scheme last year, sapping funds available to pay out farmers at the end of the season and leaving them short of cash even before last week's deep cut to the 2016 forecast payout.

"Last year, Fonterra came out with a higher advance rate schedule during the year, effectively almost overpaying for milk as they went," Dairy Holdings chief executive Colin Glass told BusinessDesk.

"That meant there was nothing left at the end of the year to come through. That's effectively been the major impact on farm cash flows today.

http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/741ce202/fonterra-overshoot-on-2015-advance-payment-worsens-2016-farmer-cash-flows.html?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Fonterra+overshoot+on+2015+advance+payment+worsens+2016+farmer+cash+flows&utm_content=Fonterra+overshoot+on+2015+advance+payment+worsens+2016+farmer+cash+flows+CID_eceaf1dd620dedff44e8007417c574ee&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=httpwwwsharechatconzarticle741ce202fonterra-overshoot-on-2015-advance-payment-worsens-2016-farmer-cash-flowshtml