Auckland House Prices fall 4 percent

[Kbkiwi]

The biggest mistake the "regardless of price, Auckland will always go up due to...(insert argument)" is that they assume the demand is ineslastic, and that it can't be decreased due to price rises. This is 100% incorrect. There are a large assortment of alternative options available to buyers if Auckland house prices increase too far, and there is absolutely nothing that can stop these alternative options being chosen.

this truth is eventually evident for every market in the history of mankind - where alternatives to x exist, they will be chosen when price of x exceeds to high a price.

[cube]

Agree, but is there a difference between the 'alternative place to live' market and the 'alternative asset [class] to invest in?' market that is causing tension.

It seems so to me - any talk of policy 'x' weakening demand gets replaced with other keen buyers coming in to the market, be they first/second/third home buyers, cashed up or equity rich investors or overseas buyers looking for a safe home for capital and/or family?

No amount of cajoling seems to be able to convince NZ [property] investors that stocks are a good place for their money, despite recent good performance (up to Sept, anyway!)

[McDuck]

Agree, but is there a difference between the 'alternative place ...

No amount of cajoling seems to be able to convince NZ [property] investors that stocks are a good place for their money, despite recent good performance (up to Sept, anyway!)

It's trust.
The stock market was such a big trend about thirty years ago, and such a big failure, that trust in it will never be restored.

If there was some other new trend, and people could see their money growing at a good rate, then that's where the smart money would go.

Interestingly, because of small town capital gain of late, that's looking like another place e to live and invest.

[eri]

Some of it's artificially inflated demand. So many houses being bought up and left empty.

easy to say

hard to prove

certainly when houses are being bought and sold rapidly there seems an inevitable 2 month? average

time empty

hopefully with the number of transactions in auckland slowing down

there will be less of this waste

[McDuck]

easy to say

hard to prove

certainly when houses are being bought and sold rapidly there seems an inevitable 2 month? average

time empty

hopefully with the number of transactions in auckland slowing down

there will be less of this waste

Ha. That's a very interesting and often overlooked point.
The constant change resulting from neoliberal economic thinking, also creates this sort of transitional latency and waste.

I only know of two investment properties in auckland deliberatly left empty.

I remember years ago that most of the really big houses in Remuera were always empty, because the families were overseas most of the year.
And Places like Omaha too, but that's just because the batches are so flash.

You should be able to get your proof from the water companies or power ones, ..I guess .

[Learning]

I guess it seems a bigger problem when you know someone who's keeping empty houses. The guy I know has 4 Auckland properties, all empty because he had a bad experience with tenants and he feels capital gains are safer.

I was wandering how safe they would be if many like him got the willies at the same time and all tried to dump their stock at once.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11654495

[eri]

^

not a game without rather large risks

[McDuck]

I guess it seems a bigger problem when you know someone who's keeping empty houses.

http://m.nzherald.co.nz/business/new...ectid=11654495

I'm thinking that a good freelance investigative journalist could possibly get access to the power company client usage database, without doing anything illegal, by getting a short term job in that sort of company, just to get a feel for the scope of the problem.
I suppose then you would write the story and keep out the specific details gained on the job.
If the job entailed getting customers on a new plan that suited them, the ones with low usage would be the sort of thing you would naturally go to.

[Learning]

According to the 2013 census it was around 6.6% of housing stock empty in Auckland. It would be interesting to see how much it's changed in only 3 years.

[McDuck]

The thing is, the journalist could select 100 representative houses and follow them through all the way to who what where and the funding . That would give you an actual picture.

[flyernzl]

According to the 2013 census it was around 6.6% of housing stock empty in Auckland. It would be interesting to see how much it's changed in only 3 years.

Of course, if you and your family just happened to be out of town that weekend, your house would be classed as 'empty'.

[elguapo]

According to the 2013 census it was around 6.6% of housing stock empty in Auckland. It would be interesting to see how much it's changed in only 3 years.

Not really what it said. The data is that 6.6% of houses were not occupied on census night. There is a massive difference there. I think you will find the number of houses that are actually 'empty' for more than a transient time in Auckland is quite simply tiny.

[Anthonyacat]

I guess it seems a bigger problem when you know someone who's keeping empty houses. The guy I know has 4 Auckland properties, all empty because he had a bad experience with tenants and he feels capital gains are safer.

Of course, he'll be paying tax on his capital gains when sold, won't he? There's certainly no other reason he'd be holding them than for resale at a higher price, so that makes it pretty clear it's a taxable activity. And is he claiming costs against them in the interim could cause issues too...

[McDuck]

Of course, if you and your family just happened to be out of town that weekend, your house would be classed as 'empty'.

Yes.exactly.
I'm thinking that this idea of empty houses exists as part of a wider set of ideas.
The first being that shelter is a need and indeed a right of a person, and good for a society.
The second being that needs take precedent over playing speculator, or seeking profit.
The third that waste is bad.
The fourth is that empty houses are a waste.
And so on. If you disassemble it, it's a layerd argument.
No one would consider a house empty because you were away on holiday a problem, although you do make a good case for Uber accommodation..ha.

[Davo36]

How did they know the house was empty. the census people I mean?

The empty house can't fill out a form saying it was empty right? Census staff surely wouldn't go around and check?

And if there were people in there, and just didn't complete a return?