Predictions for 2015

[eri]

good that nz didn't sign that trade deal

good that the russians are paying

for giving high tech weapons

to low tech terrorists

[PTILoveYou]

This just shows there is no oil crisis, and the high oil prices of the past few years were nothing but work of capitalists

[Perry]

So you're not a capitalist, then?

[Wayne]

This just shows there is no oil crisis, and the high oil prices of the past few years were nothing but work of capitalists

Or that there will be problems in many countries who export oil as their income goes down.
Crude is at close or below what many countries need to cover their current budgets.
Watch the people rebel as things get cut.
Unrest coming.

[PTILoveYou]

prices of raw commodity these days are like chips on a gambling table, the prices are not really supply and demand anymore, its all these guys behind a computer manipulating the prices.

[PTWhatAGreatForum]

I'm not playing into their stupid war game.

[speights boy]

^^ I disagree, Gary.
Oil futures react to changes in supply, which is affected by demand.
OPEC has the main influence on prices due to their announcements on planned production targets.

[Wayne]

I'm not playing into their stupid war game.

They'll feel much better now!
Whose war games was that?

[PTWhatAGreatForum]

They'll feel much better now!
Whose war games was that?

Whoever is playing that game in 2015. I don't have a crystal ball but I'd think same old...

[Viking]

Despite Silly Smith and his houses for the poor program, section prices will continue to rise/have continued to rise.
New lot at the Lakes up $40K.

New ones in Papamoa going to up as well.

Why Well if you could hear the stories of the council demands on the developers like I have just been listening to you would know why.
If you could hear how inept the council are in their planning you would cry.

How about a big project installing a new sewer main. Contract required digging up the road, installing the main and then reinstating the road to new build. Now when nearly finished the same council has let a tender for a new water main that will require digging up that brand new road.
The council were even told by the contractors before the first tenders were closed.

Rates to rise as ever.

[Viking]

Banks will tighten up fairly soon on new builds as too many being planned and a surplus will be inevitable in some area's by the end of 2015.
Immigration of permanent arrivals and population growth don't justify the rate of building the "experts" have been pushing for.

[M4ttNz]

Oil prices will rebound by mid 2016 but will stabilize around or just below $95 usd per barrel by mid 2015. Saudies and Emirates are happy to play games now but Opec will either be forced to action by its economically weaker members or if Opec doesnt act the weaker members and or possibly Russian instability will bring around the higher prices due to supply concerns anyway.

NZ interest rates will remain low even as NZ economy continues to grow as RBNZ worries about NZ $ at a time when China and Europe are struggling (China still growing but relatively slower/Europe continues to be basket case).

Auckland prices go up another 10-13% as more first home buyers figure out ways around RBNZ speed limits & baby boomers spend their equity windfall getting that rental property all their mates have.

Rents rise but only at subdued slow rates as many new properties built/bought just add to rental supply.

Other considerations beyond 2015 but thats how I see it playing out.

[marklowes]

High yielding provincial cities of decent population will see 10% plus yoy capital gains, potentially even higher as Auckland home owners try to put their 200k plus free equity to use to buy a rental property but realise that what they can borrow is limited by income (not deposit/equity) so anything low yielding and high priced in auckland is ruled out.

2005-2006 after GV's were updated in auckland caused this exact thing to happen, with P.N for example seeing 20% plus yoy gains from 2005-2007 (auckland GVs updated in 2005 at much higher levels).

Auckland prices to see 5% gains (similar to what was seen during corresponding period 2005-2007)

[PTWhatAGreatForum]

The sun will always shine and property prices will never go down. Let's toast to that, comrades.

[Perry]

Property prices do go down, unfortunately.
I recall with delight that my CV and rates
went down one year in the eighties.

But the aggregate, over the years, is more
or less as you infer: rising property prices.
As it has ever been.