Would you invest in Christchurch right now?

[hilaryduff]

I saw this article hxxp://www.nzpif.org.nz/news/view/54779 where Bayleys are talking up Christchurch as a place to rent. In other words Owner Occupiers don't want to sink their money into the place but many will be happy to rent a house there. So, if you aren't emotionally invested in the place you won't mind if the next aftershock damages it as much an OO would.

Seems like a harsh extension of the 3Ds and they might be right. Would feel callous though wouldn't it?

[Keithw]

Why would the Govt buy a place at top dollar, that is able to be rennovated back to a livable state, then sell it off at 50% less ? (I know- Govt does really stupid things all the time)
If they are going to buy places, I would expect only those that cannot be rennovated, or are on unstable land, in which case they want all housing removed, or rebuilt in such a way as it can survive on the unstable land, ie floats, or has 50 mtr deep piles or whatever.

The insurance companies are going to be looking for the cheapest way out, so if a place can be repaired for less than taking a 50% loss on sale, then they will repair it, regardless of whether the owner wants to stay or not. It is then up to the owner to sell, if they dont want to live in it any more.
& if other houses nearby are actually being bought by the Govt, & sold off cheap, then the owner who has a newly rennovated house he wants to sell just got screwed, he now has a house probably saleable at only 3/4 of its previous "value".

I predict we will start hearing a lot of these anomalies/ injustices

Would I invest money into cashflow properties like that ? - I doubt it.
The likelyhood of capital gain is so much of a gamble I dont think its worth it. (another quake, population decrease, huge levies, huge repair costs to new & unknown standards)
Perhaps $100k as a gamble, as recognition of the cashflow (if you could get 20%), but certainly not $300k

[properdi]

Given that such vast numbers of buildings are going to come down/be demolished, now may be the time to pick up some commercial land close to the CBD reasonably cheap.

I imagine there will be a number of existing owners disinterested in sticking around for the rebuild. CBD sites have historically been very tightly held.

As always, opportunity is everywhere. One day, there will be a massive rebound. I'm not put off investing down there.

Gerard
Founder
Properdi Limited

[donna]

On Close Up there were a couple of Architects talking up their ideas for the city - some were encouraging - ChCH centre is a blank canvas so it could accomodate a very new look which could be a drawcard for tourists and I liked the idea of lots of hubs over one central city - a good idea esp. if any future quakes take out one area others can still function etc.

Cheers,

Donna

[One]

Why would the Govt buy a place at top dollar, that is able to be rennovated back to a livable state, then sell it off at 50% less ?

They might buy places just so owners can move on with their lives. There's been talk of that. If they did, it'd be at pre-Sept-quake market value.

Whether they'd on-sell them dirt cheap fast, that's another question. If so, could be good bargains but, boy, you'd want to be sure of the cost and timeframe to get it habitable.

[whakataka]

Hard to say. On one hand you have the shakes and the insurance etc etc. On the other, you have low priced property in what could be a really desirable place to live in a few years time... and the shakes may die off at any time (touch wood) Big risk, big reward?

Maybe I need to put down the property investment books and get something on geology.

[fatfishandchipman]

Given that such vast numbers of buildings are going to come down/be demolished, now may be the time to pick up some commercial land close to the CBD reasonably cheap.

I imagine there will be a number of existing owners disinterested in sticking around for the rebuild. CBD sites have historically been very tightly held.

As always, opportunity is everywhere. One day, there will be a massive rebound. I'm not put off investing down there.

Gerard
Founder
Properdi Limited

Ideas?

Ideas for a fancy new city are not worth much if those ideas are not driven by market need.

The government should never be involved in business other than to the extent of providing safe drinking water, safe and secure sewage, and electricity. The last thing we need are a couple dreamers coming up with un-tenantable structures for a downtown that is dead and finished.

The government has failed. What is it now 6 or 7 months and many Christchurch residents are still living in tents! I bet the Japanese are doing better, even after a few months.

The current location of Christchurch should be moved. Or better yet just abandon it completely.



There are more earthquakes coming. We haven’t seen the “big-one”yet!

[DazRaz]

There are more earthquakes coming. We haven’t seen the “big-one”yet!

A new Ken Ring? Tell me more. What are you basing this on?

[Harvey]

There are opportunites to be had in Christchurch. I am not from christchurch so I don't know enough about the market, or areas affected to be able to make and educated investment so I will be staying clear.

[splato]

No, I would be investing in Auckland/Hamilton, where majority will relocate.

[DazRaz]

The majority will relocate in Christchurch.

[Momo]

The short answer is no. The long answer is no, thank you.

[whakataka]

"When everyone is greedy, be cautious; and when everyone is fearful be brave."

Best investment advice I've ever heard... and as someone living in Christchurch would I say people are more fearful than anything. Wait a few months for the dust to settle, watch the new buildings start to go up in the CBD and you'll see it turn into a really desirable location. People live in Wellington and nobody talks about moving the city or the property market being stuffed. In fact, in Welly nobody even seems to care if an existing building is on the earthquake-risk list.

Should you invest? The market has it's pros and cons like any other... just different ones. Land is stuffed or prone to liquefaction in one area... maybe not a good investment. But there are also areas (western suburbs in particular) that haven't been effected, and are in high demand. There are also some cases where the owner makes the decision to sell short and bugger off for personal reasons.

Despite what you see on Campbell Live or CloseUp the majority of properties in Christchurch have had very little damage. If you think there's no value in Christchurch, then you're just being fearful (like everyone else).

[drelly]

If I could be sure that there would be no more major earthquakes... yeah sure. But no one can say that for certain, so I don't see the point in sticking my neck out on a gamble like that.

[DazRaz]

I think Christchurch has a positive future and rental demand would be strong for quite some time. I would like to purchase more but I don't think that will be possible yet.