Another Prediction!

[Bob Kane]

Evidence please?

Ask Kieran - he made the claim.

[kieran]

Evidence

Ask Kieran - he made the claim.

In January 2002 I announced to my email database and media contacts that the Boom was just around the corner (it arrived in force within 6 months of my statement). There was only one media article published as a result of my claim and that was a very small article in the Sunday Star Times as seen below.
My email database had the heads up (even those who were only on my email database and not clients). Of course most people didn't believe the message back then as my property cycle research and analysis methods were yet to be proven accurate and unknown to most people at that time.

This call was made based on the same property cycle analysis still in use today.



Property busts into boom time
DATE: 03-Feb-02 | SOURCE: Sunday Star Times
Property investor and secretary of the Auckland Property Investors Association, Kieran Trass, believes we are heading into a property boom, no doubt about it… “It’s now time for the boom.” Listing an "overwhelming amount" of indicators of the coming good times, Trass throws out a word of warning to doubters. "Novice" investors will wait until the emerging boom market proves itself with sustained capital growth before they hop in. By then it will be too late as property values have plateaued or be heading down.



P.S. In future I would not make such a call in the public arena as I reserve the most valuable findings of my research for my Property Cycle commentary subscribers who financially support my ongoing research.

[Bob Kane]

Thanks, Kieran.
That shows just how good your research/forecasting skills are.
A lot of people often wish for a crystal ball.
They don't need one when you're available.

[watchful]

Kieran and Bob you guys crack me up. But credit where credit is due - good pick in 2002 Kieran.

Although it wouldn't have hurt investors to wait for the boom to really have established in this case as there were some 7 years before prices plateaued and fell in some areas (give or take).

[eri]

empty sections on waiheke seemed to have peaked about 2004/5

they seem to be a bit of a bellwether for auckland with earlier and bigger swings

but in 2005 when bach hungry aucklanders baulked at going over $200,000 for bits of inland scrub they simply looked further out to barrier, kawau and maybe rakino where there were still $50,000 bits of scrub

but then in 2008 even those far flung inaccessible tea tree plots had to face the music and are now leaking down back down to levels commensurate with their proximity to paid employment

ie

there are wheels within wheels

while the big picture is important

we tiddlers will live and die

at the local level

don't be distracted

keep your eye on the ball

of your local patch

[Commercial Dan]

Then what about the 30%+ drop in property you predicted?

In January 2002 I announced to my email database and media contacts that the Boom was just around the corner (it arrived in force within 6 months of my statement). There was only one media article published as a result of my claim and that was a very small article in the Sunday Star Times as seen below.
My email database had the heads up (even those who were only on my email database and not clients). Of course most people didn't believe the message back then as my property cycle research and analysis methods were yet to be proven accurate and unknown to most people at that time.

This call was made based on the same property cycle analysis still in use today.



Property busts into boom time
DATE: 03-Feb-02 | SOURCE: Sunday Star Times
Property investor and secretary of the Auckland Property Investors Association, Kieran Trass, believes we are heading into a property boom, no doubt about it… “It’s now time for the boom.” Listing an "overwhelming amount" of indicators of the coming good times, Trass throws out a word of warning to doubters. "Novice" investors will wait until the emerging boom market proves itself with sustained capital growth before they hop in. By then it will be too late as property values have plateaued or be heading down.



P.S. In future I would not make such a call in the public arena as I reserve the most valuable findings of my research for my Property Cycle commentary subscribers who financially support my ongoing research.

[spurner]

That was only for certain properties in specific locations, and didn't take into account the effect of government initiatives, and he was taken out of quote and context by the reporter, and you need to subscribe to suburbwatch to get the full picture, and kieran is never wrong, okay.

Just like the fixing for 5 years at 9%.....

[kieran]

Commercial Dan said...

Then what about the 30%+ drop in property you predicted?

YAWN... How boring. This lie has been discussed before at length on PT.
Even Tony Alexander implied I said this statement but no-one can provide any evidence of my saying it... because I never said it!

BERNARD HICKEY made that statement, after I had called the coming crash of 2008-09.

CD your statement is absolutely untrue and you already know it so why state it as fact when it's entirely fiction?

Provide evidence please... or admit it's a lie and cease spreading it.

[Tucker]

I think something like this was said

Well done CD... Lol! Another mis-qoute!

Please link to the actual quote I made that says 30% drop across the board? Oh you cant because I never said it.

Fact = Up to 25% in some suburbs in Auckland, Wellington and Christchurch is what I actually stated http://www.propertytalk.com/forum/sh...ad.php?t=14713
__________________
Kieran Trass

[Commercial Dan]

I think something like this was said

Thank you Tucker, it sure was said, on tv...god knows why they got him on as he is hardly what you would call an expert. Embarassing really

[kieran]

Thank you Tucker, it sure was said, on tv...

On TV? Please do let us know which TV program it was said on, to which interviewer and when?

Can't wait to see it, LOL!
The interview I never gave with the statement I never made.

Understood there may be some confusion about my call of up to 25% in some suburbs, because not long after that, none other than Bernard Hickey called a 30% fall.

[Commercial Dan]

25% is just as embarrassing and hardly the work of an expert!

http://www.3news.co.nz/Property-market-set-to-crash-says-expert/tabid/423/articleID/45982/Default.aspx

On TV? Please do let us know which TV program it was said on, to which interviewer and when?

Can't wait to see it, LOL!
The interview I never gave with the statement I never made.

Understood there may be some confusion about my call of up to 25% in some suburbs, because not long after that, none other than Bernard Hickey called a 30% fall.

[Tucker]

Some properties did fall 20 - 30% although the stats only show 5 - 10% because it only shows the buy and sell prices. As an example someone buys a property undervalue for $400,000 but valued at $480,000 (or renovated so it valued higher) ends up selling for $380,000. This only shows a 5% drop in the stats because only the $400k and $380k are used but it is actually a 20% drop to the owner from $480k to $380k.

[Jumpin]

I think all that demonstrates is that the valuation of $480 k was wrong.

[Tucker]

No it doesn't jumpin because it could have been purchased before the downturn and then sold afterwards, also if these valuations were wrong then none of the banks would use valuations to lend against. This is not a one off thing many investors buy undervalue but the stats only take into account purchase price not the value at purchase.