Economist picks land price correction

[eri]

From district to district, the changes in median prices over the past year have varied from increases of up to 3.8 per cent in five regions to falls of more than 4 per cent in three regions and a drop of 9 per cent in Northland.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10694176

[Bob Kane]

No one is perfect but I find Rodney's stuff useful as well.

I noted this:

The national average house price fell 10% between the peak in the December quarter of 2007 and the trough in the March quarter of 2009 based on the QV House Price Index, which is formulated in such a way that it accurately measures the national average house price. This was the largest fall on record,...

So the largest fall on record for NZ house prices was 10% which was quickly followed by a recovery to end up 5% below the peak.
Sounds like a pretty reliable investment to me.

[Xav]

What report is that from Bob? I don't think Dickens would put much stock in those figures for the reasons explained in the article I linked to.

[Bob Kane]

Chapter three of his Real Housing Market Story.

[Xav]

Thanks (link for reference).

I meant to refer to his first report in my preceding post, not the second one which I previously linked to. It is rare to see anyone on this forum talk in terms of real house prices, which is unfortunate.

[flyernzl]

He is however ignoring the effects of gearing in his analysis.

[Perry]

Time to again ponder the implausible prog-
nostications of the economic soothsayers?

[Perry]

Another year later and no real evidence to support the wild claims made in
2010. I suppose it's true for some places, though the claims were general-
ised in some ways. Certainly Auckland didn't hear him, though, that was
mentioned as an exception. How accurate is the prediction for others areas?

15/01/2010
A leading economist (ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie)
believes New Zealand has an over-abundance of land and
says prices will have to come down in the near future.

[drelly]

That was written in 2010, when land prices in Northland had already dropped considerably! Not much of a prediction... I think he missed the boat!

[SwissKiwi]

That was written in 2010, when land prices in Northland had already dropped considerably! Not much of a prediction... I think he missed the boat!

If I have to pick 1 bank economist to give credence to - I choose Fat Tony.

[Perry]

Another year on: what's every-
one's picks and views, now?

[Perry]

"The story of 2010," eh?

Another year later and how's the 'correction' going for y'all?

A leading economist believes New Zealand has an over-abundance of land and says prices will have to come down in the near future.
ANZ chief economist Cameron Bagrie warned "prices are going to have to adjust and this will be the story of 2010."
Bagrie says there is an over-abundance of land and prices are over inflated.

[Keys]

Good to see you're keeping track of these threads Perry.

[Damap]

Poor old Cameron. You really need masochistic tendencies to be a bank or government economist. (Rodney Dickens excepted, his research is actually on the money).

[Perry]

Good to see you're keeping track of these threads Perry.

If I remember, I'll mark the predictions
threads for an annual re-visit, too.