Header Ad Module

Collapse

Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Don’t get your hopes up yet, say property commentators

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

  • Don’t get your hopes up yet, say property commentators

    Don’t get your hopes up yet, say property commentators

    Jazial Crossley | Friday August 14 2009 - 12:28pm
    Today's Real Estate Institute figures showing house prices increased by 2.2% in the three months to July have added weight to Infometrics claim that house prices will rise by 24% over the next three years. However, some property analysts say the forecasts are far fetched and overly-optimistic.
    While many commentators have been delivering differing reports of how they expect the property market to pan out over the next few years, the majority agree next year won’t be hugely improved on the current situation.
    The data that Infometrics based its report on is calculated by median prices of homes sold, and property market commentator Kieran Trass said that method is unreliable due to including the extreme ends of the market.
    He predicts a nominal fall in house prices instead. The main problem facing the residential housing market in New Zealand is affordability, he said.
    At a property market outlook presentation at the University of Auckland, interest.co.nz editor Bernard Hickey told the audience of largely 18-30 year old students to leave New Zealand, because property would never be affordable in their lifetime.
    “If you are under thirty and don’t own a home, there is no hope for you in New Zealand. If you think you’re going to be able to get married, have kids and own your own place with a back yard, it’s not happening – especially not in Auckland,” Mr Hickey said.
    He blamed the property purchasing patterns of the baby boomer generation for the inflation on residential prices
    House prices are already “horribly unaffordable”, he said, adding that by 2025 the baby boomers who bought up large in the property market between 2003-2008 thanks to generous bank lending will be pushing up tax rates by putting pressure on the healthcare system.
    Realestate.co.nz chief executive Alistair Helm held a conservative outlook. He said at the same presentation that he expects the next five years to be dull in the property market.
    “Sales volumes are likely to grow steadily,” Mr Helm said. He added that supply would be restricted due to limited new builds but the flow of residential construction would return.
    Mr Trass, who runs the website suburbwatch.co.nz said that we are now in the middle of the housing slump, with the current rise in new listings and lifted mood in the industry being nothing but a false start. He expects a somber mood to be prevalent in the property market during 2010.
    http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/don-t-g...ntators-107483
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    Todays news: Bit of a mixed bag.

    Comment


    • #3
      Originally posted by muppet View Post
      At a property market outlook presentation at the University of Auckland, interest.co.nz editor Bernard Hickey told the audience of largely 18-30 year old students to leave New Zealand, because property would never be affordable in their lifetime.
      groan

      Par for the course really - Hickey expressing a jaundiced view of real estate.
      Last edited by Mark_B; 14-08-2009, 07:36 PM.
      Comments may not be relevant to individual circumstances. Before making any investment, financial or taxation decision you should consult a professional adviser.

      Comment


      • #4
        Well Hickey is a poor excuse for a journo. He wants to make the news not report it. If he is a newsmaker he should tell everyone that's his dream.
        His piece the other day on Keating indicates quite clearly that that is exactly what he thinks he is.
        But another opinion would be a broken arsed journalist.

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by muppet View Post
          At a property market outlook presentation at the University of Auckland, interest.co.nz editor Bernard Hickey told the audience of largely 18-30 year old students to leave New Zealand, because property would never be affordable in their lifetime.
          “If you are under thirty and don’t own a home, there is no hope for you in New Zealand.” Mr Hickey said.

          What unusual advice to be giving young students.
          Perhaps Bernard should follow his own advice and depart our shores thereby improving the morale of the country.

          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by muppet View Post
            At a property market outlook presentation at the University of Auckland, interest.co.nz editor Bernard Hickey told the audience of largely 18-30 year old students to leave New Zealand, because property would never be affordable in their lifetime.
            “If you are under thirty and don’t own a home, there is no hope for you in New Zealand. If you think you’re going to be able to get married, have kids and own your own place with a back yard, it’s not happening – especially not in Auckland,” Mr Hickey said.
            What an idiot. Why do people even give this guy the opportunity to put forward his ridiculous views? I'm sure even people like Kieran Trass who are predicting more pain in the property market will agree that telling 18 year olds that "property would never be affordable in their lifetime" is a ridiculous, emotive statement with no basis in analysis. Quite how he thinks he can predict what will happen for the rest of their life time is beyond me.

            Comment


            • #7
              Not only that, Chunda, but I want to know where he's suggesting they move to. Assuming it's apples with apples, it will need to be a western country, and if he's specifically mentioning Auckland, then it would need to be a major city. London? Sydney? New York? Rome?

              Property is SOOOO much cheaper in those cities. What a plank.

              Comment


              • #8
                I can only see prices going up. Property is so cheap here. There will always be those who can never afford it, but I reckon the main problem is that first home buyers today prefer to start with the right executive home in the right neighbourhood close to the right school, preferably with designer kitchen and the latest appliances - which of course makes for a lovely media drama when they moan about how unaffordable it is.
                What's wrong with starting with a small unit and working your way up? I didn't think I would sound like a grumpy old man @ 32, but it really makes me wonder, there is a total shift in mentality from just a generation ago.
                High resolution Fractal Art on quality canvas: www.FractalArt.co.nz

                Comment


                • #9
                  haha Rolf. Do you sound like your Dad?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Yeah it's that instant gratification through and through - I agree an unwise comment made by Bernard - though maybe it was quoted out of context. Surely it's better to educate - offer the 'how' not the 'it won't happen for you' approach. Depression is high enough amongst the young - no need giving them no hope - especially when it's completely incorrect.

                    Many people know to get on the property ladder they are better off renting in their area of choice and their first property is a rental in an affordable area that offers the correct mix of cashflow and (ideally) future capital gain.

                    We had a few rental properties before we bought our home and that purchase was only achievable due to choosing to live in a much more affordable area.

                    Cheers,

                    Donna
                    SEARCH PropertyTalk, About PropertyTalk

                    BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Well the thoughts expressed here so far seem to be bashing the messenger rather than the message. If he is saying family housing in large urban centres is unaffordable - he's correct.

                      Houses might look cheap here compared to Sydney or London but the family income here to pay for a house is also low. If a house cost $10,000 and your annual income is $1000, its meaningless to say how cheap the house is.

                      As a multiple of income our houses are overpriced.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        No more so than London.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Winston001 View Post
                          If he is saying family housing in large urban centres is unaffordable - he's correct.

                          Houses might look cheap here compared to Sydney or London but the family income here to pay for a house is also low. If a house cost $10,000 and your annual income is $1000, its meaningless to say how cheap the house is.

                          As a multiple of income our houses are overpriced.
                          I just don't buy the "average wage versus average house price" argument.

                          Just did a check on TradeMe and the fact is there are currently 514 average 3brm houses for sale in Auckland between $200k and $250k. Or you can get a 3brm unit in Henderson for $179k, not exactly overpriced I'd say.
                          Surely those are not mansions in the poshest suburbs, but honestly it's only a matter of priorities to get onto the housing ladder. The problem is that the average house price quoted in the media is something like $480k which certainly disports the picture. However, as the facts shows, if first home buyers are willing to compromise a bit then there seems to be plenty of opportunities for everyone.
                          Last edited by Rolf; 17-08-2009, 12:21 PM.
                          High resolution Fractal Art on quality canvas: www.FractalArt.co.nz

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Quite right Rolf. T
                            Today's children want to start where their parents left off.
                            OllyN [email protected]
                            Independent Property Consultant
                            Residential and Commercial Solutions

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by OllyN View Post
                              Quite right Rolf. T
                              Today's children want to start where their parents left off.
                              couldn't agree more. I remember a couple of years ago seeing a 'poor young couple' bleating on one of those property shows, can't remember which one, that they had to go 'all the way out to Meadowbank' before properties were in their price range. For anyone not from Auckland, Meadowbank ain't exactly out in the middle of nowhere and is surrounded by Auckland's most expensive suburbs. Meant they probably could have bought a brand new flash house in even decent areas of South or West Auckland!

                              Comment

                              Working...
                              X