Financial Armageddon!!

[Perry]

My perspective is just to look
back at predictions past, not
to make money from them.

[eri]

hope those in control

and those in couches watching tv

are looking around

and thinking ahead

Those on the political left tend to focus on economics. Shrinking job opportunities for men, they say, are entrenching poverty and destroying families.

In America pay for men with only a high-school certificate fell by 21% in real terms between 1979 and 2013;

for women with similar qualifications it rose by 3%.

Around a fifth of working-age American men with only a high-school diploma have no job.

Those on the right worry about the collapse of the family.

The vast majority of women would prefer to have a partner who does his bit both financially and domestically.

But they would rather do without one than team up with a layabout, which may be all that is on offer:

American men without jobs spend only half as much time on housework and caring for others as do women in the same situation, and much more time watching television.

Hence the unravelling of working-class families.

http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21652323-blue-collar-men-rich-countries-are-trouble-they-must-learn-adapt-weaker-sex

[eri]

...like Japan and other highly-indebted countries that have struggled to deleverage, China isn't showing the requisite tolerance for pain.

A case in point was the government's May 15 decision to order banks to prop up the same local-government financing vehicles

Then the People's Bank of China decided this week to guide the three-month Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate to its lowest level since 2008.

By manipulating "shibor" in this way, the People's Bank of China is helping regional leaders accelerate their unsustainable borrowing.

Neither of these steps will help China avoid a Japan-like crisis.

Rather, they are likely to ensure a belated financial reckoning in the years ahead with the potential to shake the global economy.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11456689

[elguapo]

As a NZ property investor, this is perhaps the biggest question to answer, what happens when China goes pop? Or perhaps China simply turns into a very large version of Japan?

[speights boy]

Too much bank lending slows economic growth, OECD says

The growth of bank lending has gone too far and has become a drag on economic growth, says ground-breaking economic analysis by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

"Finance is a vital ingredient of economic growth, but there can be too much of it," the OECD study says. "Over the past 50 years, credit by banks and other institutions to households and businesses has grown three times as fast as economic activity.
"At these levels, further expansion is likely to slow long-term growth and raise inequality."

The paper suggests bank financing also crowds out more growth-producing uses for money, including stock-market equity raising.
"More stock market financing boosts growth in most OECD countries," the report says, along with findings that "credit is a stronger drag on growth when it goes to households rather than businesses."

While there is short-term harm to economic growth when measures are taken to restrict the growth of bank credit, "reforms to make the financial sector more stable can be expected to boost long-term economic growth and improve economic inequality."

"Reforms to reduce the tax bias against equity financing" are also required to reduce the bias towards debt financed growth, "which leads to too much debt and not enough equity", which in turn slows growth and "compromises investments for the future."

https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/news/too-much-bank-lending-slows-192800095.html

[Davo36]

Good article by Gareth Morgan on the looming superannuation tsunami.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11466733

It's got to be fixed or we are screwed.

[Wayne]

So long as Key is the leader they will continue to bury their head in the sand.
This is shameful for the next generation.

[Perry]

As usual, GM is full of it.

It starts with two lies, near the top:

There is no case to suggest that because we've paid taxes we deserve a fat government pension.

The Nat Super rates are "fat?" Someone is hallucinating and it's not the superannuitants.

My father (94) distinctly recalls the promise made by a Labour government that went
something like: give us one and sixpence in the pound (of your wages) and we'll make
sure you're looked after in your retirement.

That fund was kept separate, as I recall, until some later government 'raided it,' just like
Muldoon raided the EQC of its reserves, many years ago.

So, given that the item starts out with false premises, why bother to read the rest?

[Wayne]

As usual, GM is full of it.

It starts with two lies, near the top:


The Nat Super rates are "fat?" Someone is hallucinating and it's not the superannuitants.

My father (94) distinctly recalls the promise made by a Labour government that went
something like: give us one and sixpence in the pound (of your wages) and we'll make
sure you're looked after in your retirement.

That fund was kept separate, as I recall, until some later government 'raided it,' just like
Muldoon raided the EQC of its reserves, many years ago.

So, given that the item starts out with false premises, why bother to read the rest?

May be an exageration but is it a lie?
I believe it was the Muldoon National Govt which scrapped the 'individualised' fund (using a form of the Singapore model) put in place by the previous Labour Govt - the funds went in to the Consolidated Account.
It has been shown that, had the fund kept going, we would be sitting pretty at the moment. Very forward looking that Muldoon dude.

The problem now is is it sustainable now?
At some point in the not to distant future there will be 2 workers paying tax supporting each oldie!
Will they want to?

[Perry]

Yes - it's a lie. "Because we've paid taxes" is a big one.
Once, social security (as my father recalls it) was kept
separate and identified as such. I.e. it was a payment
for social security deducted at the same time as income
tax and itemised, but it was not a payment of tax.

[Wayne]

it was a payment
for social security deducted at the same time as income
tax and itemised, but it was not a payment of tax.

Then Muldoon pulled it all back into the consolidated account and it became part of the taxes.
It could also be thought of as a compulsory insurance - changes its complexion then.

[Davo36]

Perry, he outlines his case for that opening statement throughout the article, especially at the end.

I don't agree with everything he says either, but this article seems about right.

[Perry]

Perhaps. I'm not dealing with the Super sustainable-or-not part.
I'm dealing with the being economical-with-the-truth part.

[Davo36]

Dairying has been told to downsize by the environmental commissioner: http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...ality-concerns

But since downsizing is not continuous growth, it will be ignored.

[elguapo]

Dairying has been told to downsize by the environmental commissioner: http://www.interest.co.nz/rural-news...ality-concerns

But since downsizing is not continuous growth, it will be ignored.

With the current price, dairy will downsize regardless of what the environmental commissioner recommends.