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  • Prices tumble as buyers hold out for a bargain

    Prices tumble as buyers hold out for a bargain
    5:00AM Sunday March 23, 2008
    By Rebecca Milne

    'Alan Bollard Special - $100K off price". "Price Slashed." "Now Selling Below GV. You Couldn't Rebuild For This Price."

    The property market is in a slump and buyers couldn't be in a better bargaining position. The nation's real estate agents are in fire sale mode, with prices dropping by the day.

    A Herald on Sunday probe into what's for sale around the country this weekend revealed hundreds of properties advertising themselves below capital value (CV).

    Agents confirmed they were talking sellers into cutting prices by up to 30 per cent.

    "I had one vendor drop the price on his land by $300,000 [to $1.1 million] recently," says Waiheke agent Howard Gee of Barfoot and Thompson, who is selling a bach on the island for $105,000 under CV. "It's a buyers' market... [sellers] are ringing up and saying drop this [price] and drop that."

    Auckland agent Tom Hendriks, of Ray White, says he is telling sellers to drop their prices now or take their homes off the market for three years.

    "For the next 1 1/2 years [the market] is going down and it will take 1 1/2 years after that to come back to where we are now," he says.

    "If you're not going to be realistic about price now, you have to be prepared to stay put for a while - no question about that."

    One of the first areas to be hit by falling prices is coastal New Zealand where agents say luxury items such as the family bach are affected by the international credit crunch and fears of a recession.

    Auckland woman Louise Skinner is selling her Tauranga Bay, Northland bach because of the cost of "life in New Zealand" - the price of food, mortgages and petrol.

    "The mortgage on my place in Auckland has gone up and we could hold on to [the bach] and tenant it but it's a squeeze."

    Skinner listed the two-bedroom holiday house last winter for $379,000. It dropped to $359,000 and now it's on offer for $335,000. She says agents in Northland have told her that of hundreds of properties on offer since Christmas, few have sold.

    And it's not just the cheaper holiday homes. At exclusive Cooks Beach in Coromandel, a property listed at $946,000 last November drew an offer of $950,000. That fell through over Christmas and a revaluation priced it at between $700,000 and $800,000. It is still for sale.

    In Auckland, homes in many of the cheaper suburbs in West and South Auckland are simply not selling as buyers sit and wait for bargains.

    Families caught with large mortgages, rising interest rates and the growing cost of living are trying to sell quickly - and failing.

    In the West Auckland suburb of Hobsonville, agent Rachel Harris of Bayleys has a home for sale at $950,000 - below GV and below the cost of building it.

    "They want it sold like last year," she says of the vendors who have dropped their price hoping for a quick sale. "But all the buyers are looking for an absolute steal. A lot are holding off [buying]."

    Harris says the Auckland market turned abruptly at the end of October and five months later buyers are being "very coy. I tell people they should put an offer in - you don't know what you might get when the market's like this."

    It's the same in the regions.

    In Napier, Dave Gearey began building his dream home in Parklands just before Christmas - but wishes he'd begun when he bought the section nine months ago.

    The house is just finished and instead of moving in, he's desperately trying to sell, knocking the price down from the valuation of $525,000 to a bargain $489,000.

    It's not just the cost of mortgages, food and petrol that's worrying Gearey - building costs rose over that period too. "We aren't making much money on [the house] that's for sure," he says.

    In Tauranga, hopeful seller Jenny Hill says prices in her neighbourhood are holding up, but when she bought a new home she knew she'd need to sell her family bach at Waihi Beach.

    It entered the market at $730,000 but is now listed at $660,000.

    "I'm in the position where I want to sell," she says. "I don't want to make the huge interest payments and this [the bach] is a luxury... I wish I had put it on the market six months earlier."

    Andrew King, of the Property Investors Federation, says rising inflation and mortgage rates are fuelling the drop in prices.

    "I think all property will be affected, but, potentially, coastal property more because it's more of a luxury item. Prices have escalated and when prices go up they tend to be susceptible to coming down."

    But not everyone believes the slump is inevitable.

    In Auckland's Mt Albert, agent Daniel Beetham is so confident things will get better he's bidding on a property at auction himself next month.

    But a pretty, newly renovated bungalow he's selling in sought-after Lloyd Ave recently dropped its price from $800,000-plus to $759,000.

    "I don't think it is going to get any worse," he told the Herald on Sunday yesterday. "We are still selling houses and getting good prices but people aren't paying the stupid money anymore. This is just a reality check."

    Latest breaking news articles, photos, video, blogs, reviews, analysis, opinion and reader comment from New Zealand and around the World - NZ Herald
    Last edited by muppet; 23-03-2008, 08:11 AM.
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    Originally posted by muppet View Post
    Prices tumble as buyers hold out for a bargain


    One of the first areas to be hit by falling prices is coastal New Zealand where agents say luxury items such as the family bach are affected by the international credit crunch and fears of a recession.

    =============

    "I'm in the position where I want to sell," she says. "I don't want to make the huge interest payments and this [the bach] is a luxury... I wish I had put it on the market six months earlier."

    ================

    Andrew King
    "I think all property will be affected, but, potentially, coastal property more because it's more of a luxury item. Prices have escalated and when prices go up they tend to be susceptible to coming down."



    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/1/...0499649&pnum=0

    An experience forum member said 2 years ago that coastal properties were going to drop most significantly in the future . How true he was. I just cannot remember which member though. I think his cousin had just bought a place on the coast.
    How do you eat an Elephant?
    One Bite at a Time!! (Source: Spaceman)

    Comment


    • #3
      Olly mentioned it in one of his books i think.

      We are purchasing our dream beach abode within the next 3 years.
      The timing could not be better..

      Over the last 2 years i have been doing a simple research.
      Go to trademe, go to houses for sale, type in "coastal" and click search...
      the number of pages you get is 22 at present.
      12 months ago it was 12 pages
      24 months ago it was 8 pages.
      Some properties have been listed for over 18 months....mmmmmm
      many now appearing with price reductions

      Hec

      Comment


      • #4
        Definitely not thinking Olly's book.. was it Gerrand perhaps? Definitely a member and also before Olly joined this forum.
        How do you eat an Elephant?
        One Bite at a Time!! (Source: Spaceman)

        Comment


        • #5
          I have always viewed coastal property (ie. the humble bach) as a luxury item. If this was the case, the current economic sitution would not be affecting it. You are never forced to sell a luxury item because you could afford to buy it in teh first place.

          If you suddenly cant afford your beach house because you mortgage has gone up $400 a month, you shouldn't have bought it in the first place.

          Comment


          • #6
            Back the the original article, I have put in a verbal offer on a place at $120k (25&#37 below the vendors original asking price ($519k). Will be interesting to see if the agent comes back to say they want the offer in writing. Next question will be do I want to put it in writing.

            It is for a PPOR but numbers on it do not stack up (if it was to be a rental).

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by CJ View Post
              I have always viewed coastal property (ie. the humble bach) as a luxury item. If this was the case, the current economic sitution would not be affecting it. You are never forced to sell a luxury item because you could afford to buy it in teh first place.

              If you suddenly cant afford your beach house because you mortgage has gone up $400 a month, you shouldn't have bought it in the first place.
              Great capital gains to be made on costal at the start of the cycle. IF (note IF) you are investing for gains you could defiently be looking at costal in a slump.

              Comment


              • #8
                Hi CJ

                You said:
                Back to the original article, I have put in a verbal offer on a place at $120k (25%) below the vendors original asking price ($519k).
                Just clarifying your figures.....
                25% of $519k is $130k. So your offer should be $390k.

                Regards
                "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

                Comment


                • #9
                  Muppet - sorry - I did it in my head. It should read 23%.

                  Is this a big enough discount given the uncertainty ahead. Am I being cheaky or realistic?

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    The prices tumble because ...there are no buyers.

                    There are no buyers, because there are no bargains.

                    The only real bargain is a greatly positive cashflow situation.

                    consider that:

                    Capital gain has vanished as a short term expectation.

                    So that argument for participating has also vanished.

                    In truth:

                    There are no bargains ...

                    yet.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      If you like it and want it put in the offer and see what happens. If you buy it at $399k then that's it's new value. What happens is you set the new value in the street - temporarily- until the next house sells at a similar or greater value. Only time will tell if you got a 'deal'.

                      I don't think you can base what you would get as a rental when buying for yourself it's 2 different types of property.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        An experience forum member said 2 years ago that coastal properties were going to drop most significantly in the future. I just cannot remember which member though.
                        Dean Letfus was one of the ones predicting this. His comments ran through my mind as I read the article...
                        Lisa

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Holiday vs Family home

                          I never thought this required a lot of analysis. And I can't see the bottom of CJ's argument.

                          Whenever faced with the choice of having to keep either the family home or the bach, I don't think the latter, producing little value and locking up a lot of equity, is in any position to compete. Illicit drugs offer a more cost-effective and comprehensive escape from a dark reality than seaviews do, should one ever be desperately needed nor are they a commonly liquidated item by the mortgagor.

                          Nor do I think all bach owners must be rich enough to own it - and the rest of their portfolio - mortgage free. Or that somehow their jobs are inviolable just because they were able to afford a bach in a first place.

                          Apart from the dearest and most exclusive ones, it's still an unnecessary item, which leads me to believe it wouldn't normally be the last item on the downsizing list should one ever need to be written.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by AustinWong View Post
                            An experience forum member said 2 years ago that coastal properties were going to drop most significantly in the future . How true he was. I just cannot remember which member though. I think his cousin had just bought a place on the coast.
                            Kieran Trass has been saying for a number of years that coastal property will be hard hit when the downturn comes. Just part of the cycle it would seem...

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by 67910241 View Post
                              Whenever faced with the choice of having to keep either the family home or the bach, I don't think the latter, producing little value and locking up a lot of equity, is in any position to compete. Illicit drugs offer a more cost-effective and comprehensive escape from a dark reality than seaviews do, should one ever be desperately needed nor are they a commonly liquidated item by the mortgagor.

                              Nor do I think all bach owners must be rich enough to own it - and the rest of their portfolio - mortgage free. Or that somehow their jobs are inviolable just because they were able to afford a bach in a first place.

                              Apart from the dearest and most exclusive ones, it's still an unnecessary item, which leads me to believe it wouldn't normally be the last item on the downsizing list should one ever need to be written.
                              Here's another angle tho (assuming selling one property pays off a lot of the other one).

                              Keep the beach house and sell the family home. It's easy and cheap to rent in the big cities, then you still enjoy the weekends and holidays at the beach whenever you want. Think about buying again in the city when the market start to rebound next time.

                              It's not necessarily what I'd do, but it seems like an option that would work for some.

                              Gerrard

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