Ron Hoy Fong - Will The Next Boom Be The Boom Of All Booms?

[big fella]

This came up under "Suggest Posts" on my FaceBook account: Link

I noticed Kieran Trass is down to speak at an event in August...

yeah Kieran predicts booms and busts and even went belly up himself didn't he ?

[Nick G]

The prodigal guru returns.

[Bluekiwi]

Interesting chap Kieran went alternatively lifestyle and popped up in Dunedin with some protestors at the Octagon sit in.
Don't know if he went bust but interesting to see he is Ron's mentor.
Spoke to him at a property investor expo many years ago.
At one stage he was the go to man on the Auckland property market for the news media and he was everywhere.
I think he also wrote a book which I read.

[watchful]

This came up under "Suggest Posts" on my FaceBook account: Link

I noticed Kieran Trass is down to speak at an event in August...

Gee Kieran Trass is back. I understood he took a pasting after 2008 and went all hippie to the South Island in some conspiracy theorist kind-of way. I would love to go just to see where he is at.

I hate to think what plans the Rono team have for signing up unsuspecting 'get richers'. Ron will be aware of Richmastery/ Kieran and Dean's mentoring/finder schemes that have all folded in the past.

Don't overextend is probably rule 1 and if you break it, don't get too greedy. Get out with a profit early and don't get forced into having to sit on property costing you money or losing value which can set you back years.

[McDuck]

Don't overextend is probably rule 1 and if you break it, don't get too greedy. Get out with a profit early and don't get forced into having to sit on property costing you money or losing value which can set you back years.

ha.

Same for Fencing and most combat sports. don't over extend, leaves your sides open and your balance is gone for control.
Same with energy in a fitness type sport like Rugby.
The rules of the financial world reflect the physical world.

[Nick G]

His book is pretty good, it gave some common terminology to the property cycle... really a byproduct of the expansion and retraction of credit cycles. Many follow it and other theories blindly, which is risky.

[investorak]

His book is pretty good, it gave some common terminology to the property cycle... really a byproduct of the expansion and retraction of credit cycles. Many follow it and other theories blindly, which is risky.

Which book is this?

[Nick G]

Originally it was called Grow Rich with the Property Cycle and then an updated version was The Day The Housing Bubble Bursts or something like that.

[Nick G]

The theory was good however it definitely created a "blind follower" crowd who were more interested in whether Auckland was at 4 o'clock or half past 7 on the "property clock", because one was automatically a good time to buy and the other wasn't. I think Graeme went off on it in a blog post a while back :-)

[big fella]

The theory was good however it definitely created a "blind follower" crowd who were more interested in whether Auckland was at 4 o'clock or half past 7 on the "property clock", because one was automatically a good time to buy and the other wasn't. I think Graeme went off on it in a blog post a while back :-)

where can we find that blog that Graeme wrote on that book please Nick ? I understand Graeme thought the book was a lot of dribble

[Nick G]

About halfway down here https://www.propertytalk.com/forum/s...-Fowler/page11

[big fella]

thanks nick

[flyernzl]

Gee Kieran Trass is back. I understood he took a pasting after 2008 and went all hippie to the South Island in some conspiracy theorist kind-of way.

Well it looks like Trass was spot on in his projections from 2009:

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/9595/Property-will-double-in-price-in-decade-marketers

[Courham]

Well it looks like Trass was spot on in his projections from 2009:

http://i.stuff.co.nz/business/9595/P...cade-marketers

This bit is very interesting in that link flyernzl:
But is the continued doubling of house prices possible?
Jeff Matthews from Spicers is pretty clear on that. "It just won't happen," he says. Forward projections of 7.2% per annum can be shown to be nonsense quite easily, he argues.
By 2016 that growth rate would mean the median house was worth around $620,000. By 2026 it would be worth $1.2m.
Although it's tempting to believe such growth is possible, it would leave reasonable projections for wage growth far behind.
Reasonable projections of wage growth must track the nation's long-term economic growth rate of around 3%, says Matthews.
That means by 2016, the average wage would be around $53,750 and the average wage-earner would have to pay 11.5 times their annual wage to buy a home, compared to around 7.5 times now. By 2026, they would be earning $65,850 and paying 18.2 times their annual wage to buy a home.
That simply can't happen, says Matthews, and, as there could not be a doubling in the rents property owners could charge, yields would have dwindled to almost nothing, something that would mean it was all-but-impossible to finance deals.

Interesting

Craig

[Davo36]

Westpac's chief economist Brendan O'Donovan says people should be under no illusion that the property market looks overheated.

That was in 2009.

And also this:

Add current interest-rate rises, O'Donovan said, and it's clear prices doubling every ten years isn't possible.

So, tricky to see the future it is...