Ron Hoy Fong - Will The Next Boom Be The Boom Of All Booms?

[Paul34]

More sobering news

This is interesting and is inline with an article in teh economist that noted we work harder than most countries in teh world.

IMO: It will drive people to peaceful living when they can finally retire. I sont see this huge rise in rents. People will not be able to afford it and businesses will not be able to pay it.

Watch this space but at the momment we have an economy thriving in the public sector and the rest working very hard to stand still. This can only continue for so long.

Boom of booms. Dependant on attracting good migrants. Given opportunities in China do you really think we are going to see an influx of quality migrants here??

[cube]

Boom of booms. Dependant on attracting good migrants. Given opportunities in China do you really think we are going to see an influx of quality migrants here??

Who said anything about quality?

According to the BOAB theory, we'll need migrants to do the jobs that, like in America, no one else wants to do - cleaning, collecting rubbish, emptying bed pans, property managment .

It doesn't matter if the migrants are quality or not, they'll all need somewhere to live.

cube

[McDuck]

Immigration entry criteria are very high.

There are a few loopholes..but they are quickly being closed.

[tricky]

Immigration entry criteria are very high.

There are a few loopholes..but they are quickly being closed.

This strikes me as the weakness in the BOAB theory - that the borders will be thrown open to allow 100,000 migrants entry every year for a few years.
Not saying that's impossible but gee, it's a bit hard to imagine any politician supporting such a move.
In fact, politicians seem to be saying the opposite - they want to curb the immigration numbers.

[whitt]

Tricky
I agree that is where the BOAB theory does fall down and the bit I have problems with.
Maybe we will just have an extended period of slow growth instead if population demand can not match it.

I guess that is even better than a big boom for investors. Slow steady growth would be fantastic than the usual bursts.

Either way the impact/ outcome will be interesting.

[tricky]

I've been thinking...

Question:
If 100,000 baby boomers retire, how many immigrants will we need to replace them?

At first glance you may think: 100,000.
But now I'm not so sure.

Since this is Ron's thread I'll pick on him.
Ron, in the distant future, you will retire from property investing.
Will we then need an immigrant to replace you?
The same question can be asked of all the other professional investors - will we need immigrants to replace them?
I don't see a need for any immigrants to replace Ron - his property empire can tick over without him or be carved up amongst his family.

I've thought of a few other people in different occupations and I'm tending to think that quite a few baby boomer retirees won't need replacing by immigrants.
Which is a bit of a surprise to me - I was originally thinking every retiree would need replacing.
So, if we don't need 100,000 immigrants pa from 2010-2020 then how big will this boom be?

[Jumpin]

Booms in NZ are invariably linked to commodity prices. Look at historical graphs. Thus you cant possibly predict a boom in NZ unless the rest of the world sustains healthy economies and a willingness to pay high prices for butter, meat, etc.
In the western world generally the, baby boom generation are now at peak earning capacity, and peak spending. At the same time China, India etc are growing their economies at unprecedented levels, putting great pressure on commodity supply. That is why we are NOW living through the boom of all booms. by 2010, things will have slowed down. Sure Asia will be growing still, but the whole western world will be consuming less, and shrinking their economies.
The biggest boom is here now. This is your last chance to strike it rich. Go for it!!

[RonHoyFong]

How Many People will be needed to replace Ron Hoy Fong when he reitres

Question:
If 100,000 baby boomers retire, how many immigrants will we need to replace them?

At first glance you may think: 100,000.
But now I'm not so sure.

Since this is Ron's thread I'll pick on him.

Ron, in the distant future, you will retire from property investing.

Will we then need an immigrant to replace you

The same question can be asked of all the other professional investors - will we need immigrants to replace them?

I don't see a need for any immigrants to replace Ron - his property empire can tick over without him or be carved up amongst his family...

A very realistic question and one that all other New Zealanders should worry about!

If you are talking about property investor who are full-time before retirement; my guess is that this would be only 10% of the 1% of the people who own 5 or more properties.

If you are talking about other people who are retired before 65 years that are baby boomers now I guess maybe only 1% of the population.

So to formulate an answer to your question I have made the following estimated calculations?
1% of the population that are Baby boomers already retired before 65 yrs
19.9% of the population is already retired and already over 65 yrs
4.1% of the population will die before 65 years
6.8% of the population is on unemployment benefit
4.9% of the population is on DPB and Invalids benefit
4.8% of the population is on sickness benefit
3.5% of the population is ACC
23.6% of the population is underage and at school
5.11099% of the population is at university
3.1% of the population is o/seas doing their OE
4.5% of the population at any time doing are on annual leave.
2.9% are taking a “sickies” from work
2.3% are laid up in hospitals
1.2% is sitting in a jail somewhere
11.189% of the population is are full-time mums staying home
1.1% of the population is on the toilet at any one time

Total Population Accounted for = 99.99999%


Then there is you on the net with PROPERTY TALK!

So that leaves me... the only one left doing ALL THE BLOODY WORK !


**************************************
Q. - How many people will be needed to just replace Ron Hoy Fong when he goes?

A. - About 4 million plus people !

**************************************

Cheers Ron
(Creating the Boomer Question)

[green as grass]

Question:
If 100,000 baby boomers retire, how many immigrants will we need to replace them?

At first glance you may think: 100,000.
But now I'm not so sure.

Since this is Ron's thread I'll pick on him.
Ron, in the distant future, you will retire from property investing.
Will we then need an immigrant to replace you?

Ahh but Trickey, we'll need an immigrant to empty his bed pan as cube remarked, unless of course you want to do that?

[tricky]

It would be my pleasure though I'll be needing someone to empty my bedpan!



In case the link doesn't work, here's the report:

Japan looking for older workforce
Jan 2, 2007


Looking for work in Japan? Shigeo Hirano says you may have an edge if you are older than 60.
Hirano, president of staffing agency Mystar 60 Corp., says so-called "silver" workers are in growing demand as Japan's population ages.
"Japan's best engineers and technicians are leaving factories and offices for retirement," said Hirano, who heads the employment company which specialises in finding jobs for those aged 60 and over.
"Companies are realising that hiring the elderly is the only way to retain high levels of skills and expertise," added Hirano, himself a sprightly 63.
Fears of a labour crunch and a deficit of skilled workers are growing in Japan as baby-boomers start hitting the standard retirement age of 60 this year, in what Japanese media have dubbed the "2007 problem".
A decline in young workers is exacerbating the concern as the population ages at an unprecedented pace.
The proportion of people over the age of 65 to total population is already the world's highest at 20 percent of Japan's population of 127 million people. The figure is forecast to hit 40 percent by 2055.
Changing demographics mean companies are looking to the elderly to clock in more years, and workers like Hiroshi Ebihara at a factory in Ibaraki, northeast of Tokyo, are eager to work.
"I want to work as long as the company will let me," the 63-year-old said, in between drilling holes in a circular block of cast steel.
"Young workers come to me for help on how to read drawing boards and anything else they don't know," said Ebihara, who has worked for decades at Mayekawa MFG Co., a maker of compressors used in warehouse freezers.
More energy
Yasuhiro Sasaki, a 33-year-old supervisor at the Mayekawa factory, said older workers' enthusiasm, skills and experience were indispensable to his team.
"They have more energy than younger workers," he said.
Major staffing agency Pasona Inc. says both the number of elderly seeking work and the number of companies wanting to hire them have doubled since April.
Jobs for older workers are not limited to manufacturing.
Financial institutions are also scurrying to hire older workers as they cater to a growing pool of retail investors.
At Nikko Cordial Securities Inc., around 70 percent of staff at a call centre for stock investment advice are aged 60 and over with experience in the financial sector.
"Many customers want a rundown of the market before placing an order and it helps to have someone with decades of knowledge and experience working in the industry," a spokesman said.
Not all are finding it a breeze to find jobs, however.
A recent Health and Labour Ministry survey showed 70 percent of Japanese in their 50's wanted to keep working past age 60, but other surveys indicate companies are being stingy with pay and selective about who they keep on or hire.
Staffing agency Pasona has about 8,000 retirees signed up seeking jobs, but only 10 percent have found work, said Daisuke Nakayama, a Pasona manager whose department handles employment opportunities for senior citizens.
Elderly, women, youth, robots
Japan revised laws this year to require companies to retain older staff, but many are extending work only to a favoured few.
The trend is a cause for concern, analysts say, not only because shunning older workers deprives companies of the same skills that powered Japan's rapid economic growth in the 1970s and 1980s, but because it deprives senior citizens of income.
Many elderly have no option other than to work. The government is gradually raising the age limit for retirees receiving full pension payouts from 60 to 65.
"The system for retirement must be compatible with the pension scheme," said Atsushi Seike, professor of labour economics at Keio University in Tokyo. "Companies need to raise the retirement age to at least 65, or even 70."
To keep industries competitive, Japan should also open its door to more foreign workers, while companies need to lure the younger generation to take up skilled work, Seike said.
Around 2 million Japanese from their late teens to early 30's are without full-time work, government data show, while another half-million feed off their parents' income and are classified as NEETs -- not in employment, education or training.
Hidemitsu Sano, head of staffing agency Fancl Staff Co. Ltd., hopes to expand job placements for retirees for now but said companies may resort to other sources of labour in the future.
"There are only four solutions to a labour shortage in Japan -- the elderly, women, NEETs and foreigners," he said.
"After that, Japan will have nothing to turn to but robots."

Source: Reuters

[Gatekeeper]

Will the next boom be the boom of all booms...........

Simply, the answer is no it won't. there may not be another boom for 15-20 years.
If you note Japan has just been through an extended decade of house deflation, it was closely linked to the age of the population. For the last 15 years or so the amount of population in the house buying age bracket (from memory 40-45) shrunk in Japan.
Japan is just coming out of this phase and the oncoming house buying population has increased. Things will come right slowly.

Now compare this to NZ and the latest boom. Our house buying population 40-45 yrs are at their peak now and will be shrinking from here on, it wont grow again for 15-20 years.



It won't be until the current large group of 10-14 years olds reach prime house buying age that we will be at the peak of another boom.



Thats my theory anyway

[whitt]

Gatekeeper some nice population pyramids you found. It backs my assumption that the spike we have will not have an impact for a while. Say 15-20 years as you mention.
The impact of current boomer's passing on will not take effect for another 20-30 years.
And somewhere in there is the boomer's retiring which at this stage will most likely be later on as trends suggest they will work till older.

Maybe it will just all mean steady growth with no big boom.

[whitt]

It is interesting to note the projection on Japans population pyramid in 2050. It starts to look very top heavy.

[Gatekeeper]

The impact of current boomer's passing on will not take effect for another 20-30 years.
And somewhere in there is the boomer's retiring which at this stage will most likely be later on as trends suggest they will work till older.

Maybe it will just all mean steady growth with no big boom.

I believe it will be steady but no real growth, as inflation caused by too much money creation will devalue currency. but yeah, the big batch of 10-14 years olds come into their buying age bracket in 20-30 years.

Delving a bit further, i found this graph really interesting.
On this page look at the 1951 population pyramid.
Look at the small 10-15 age group, add 30 years when they were in their prime buying years and you have the late seventies-1981 housing crash (and then boom). Amazing!

[whitt]

I will be happy with steady as she goes.