Interest Rates

[PTILoveYou]

ASB chief economist Nick Tuffley said today he now expects the Reserve Bank to cut the OCR a further 75 basis points in the July, September and October reviews, to a low of 2.5 per cent.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11474652

[speights boy]

Sorry were did you get it from?

From an impeccable source.

[ivanp]

Yeah, ok, so that's still just prediction.

[speights boy]

Yeah, ok, so that's still just prediction.

No.
It was from a bank economist and reported in the media.

Those two facts put together are irrefutable proof that it is 100% accurate and will happen.

That is the way it always works here.

[sidinz]

Well if it comes it'll be a bit late for me as I fixed yesterday. $134K. Slit between 2 yrs @ 4.99 and 3yrs @ 5.15.

Existing bank, ASB. I guess they saw me as small fry who didn't warrant any cash.

It certainly matters who you talk with, though. The first one was clueless, so I asked for someone else to call me and he worked out to be quite good. It pays to persevere, sometimes!

[JBM]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11474652

I'd be very surprised if the RBNZ moves than much in such a short time frame ....no more than 50 basis points IMHO maybe even just 25 before the years out .... yet again it's just hype like it was couple years back on us having 8%+ loan rates in 2016 utter media BS ....

[eri]

^

or things are worse than you think

WITH Greece teetering on the brink of exiting the euro area, the timing of the Bank of England’s twice-yearly update on financial stability was not ideal.

As of two weeks ago, the outlook in the report was broadly unchanged, said Mark Carney, the bank’s governor.

But given the Greek crisis—and especially the events of this week—things are now looking worse.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freee...cial-stability

[PTILoveYou]

I'd be very surprised if the RBNZ moves than much in such a short time frame ....no more than 50 basis points IMHO maybe even just 25 before the years out .... yet again it's just hype like it was couple years back on us having 8%+ loan rates in 2016 utter media BS ....

50 points drop within the rest of the year will do fine.

My biggest question now is, is nz provinces going to see a boom at all in this cycle lol!

[JBM]

50 points drop within the rest of the year will do fine.

My biggest question now is, is nz provinces going to see a boom at all in this cycle lol!

Yes don't think there's all that much action in the deep south Invercargill-Dunedin ....but here in Central otago been booming
just go checkout social media ...people happy to pay to park and live in their van or tent on your lawn,,,very very tight rental market
we just rented our guest wing out for $350pw to a boarder

[Wayne]

No.
It was from a bank economist and reported in the media.

Those two facts put together are irrefutable proof that it is 100% accurate and will happen.

That is the way it always works here.

It agrees with what I said so I believe it.

[elguapo]

50 points drop within the rest of the year will do fine.

My biggest question now is, is nz provinces going to see a boom at all in this cycle lol!

Do you understand the reasons interest rates are being cut?

[Wayne]

Do you understand the reasons interest rates are being cut?

This is a problem.
There seems to be a disconnect in some peoples minds about what is good and bad.
Cutting interest rates may result in lower mortgage rate.
But it is an indication that all is not well in the economy.
Property does better when the economy does better - some people think property lives in it's own little world divorced from reality.
That may happen for a while but can't go on forever.

[PTILoveYou]

This is a problem.
There seems to be a disconnect in some peoples minds about what is good and bad.
Cutting interest rates may result in lower mortgage rate.
But it is an indication that all is not well in the economy.
Property does better when the economy does better - some people think property lives in it's own little world divorced from reality.
That may happen for a while but can't go on forever.

Problem is, Auckland is divorced from the rest of NZ/reality...

[PTILoveYou]

Do you understand the reasons interest rates are being cut?

Yeah non-Auckland areas will be flat, while immigrants pushing Auckland up.

[Wayne]

Problem is, Auckland is divorced from the rest of NZ/reality...

Do you think Auckland property is divorced from from the Auckland economy?
ie is the Auckland economy booming?