Do all fixed rates have another 2-3% to drop this year?

[tpr2]

No the secret of an economist is having so many variables that can change you can never be wrong.

You see if your prediction goes wrong you just have to say "At the time when xxx was doing yyy it was obvious that abc would move up/down however because xyz happened which no one ever though could happen abc obviously went down/up"

Now the beauty of being an economist is that xyz can be anything at all.

For example.

xyz could be the ship in Oz spilling all the oil on the Queensland coast.

So the interest rates went up instead of down, your answer dandan is now. "Of course interest rates were going to go down while the ocr was being cut however no one suspected that a large container ship would spill millions of gallons of oil and spoil the australian coast line which of course affected how the australian banks would lend overseas making it harder for the kiwi banks to organise funds and so the rates went up!"

see it's easy.

[dandan]

So the interest rates went up instead of down, your answer dandan is now. "Of course interest rates were going to go down while the ocr was being cut however no one suspected that a large container ship would spill millions of gallons of oil and spoil the australian coast line which of course affected how the australian banks would lend overseas making it harder for the kiwi banks to organise funds and so the rates went up!"

see it's easy.

No my economic guesses don’t change; I still think interest rates will come down even though they moved up further. I have however given up on forecasting the movements of Alan Bollard as I’ve found I can't anticipate his actions.
In saying that, his actions of late have interferred with my economic guesses for the next 2200hours but only in a positive direction for me.

[tpr2]

I agree with you dandan.

I didn't lock in because I think they will come down.

However this is how you explain it in Economist speak.

"Once the oil has been cleaned up off the Australian coastline the lack of liquidity in the swap rates between international lenders will be reversed and long term interests rates will move back to a positive correlation with the OCR."

[dandan]

"Once the oil has been cleaned up off the Australian coastline the lack of liquidity in the swap rates between international lenders will be reversed and long term interests rates will move back to a positive correlation with the OCR."

Ha:-) classic.

[tpr2]

When you spend as many hours in lunches listening to the leading economists in Oz you get a sense of dejavu that just won't leave.

[Munga]

Yeah Munga that was really well spotted, I do think 5 year rates will fall below 6.75% but how did you know I removed those posts?

Because my furry friend, I hang onto every word you say

[dandan]

Because my furry friend, I hang onto every word you say

Oh bro, too much:-)

[Dean@Massiveaction]

I advised the risk averse to fix Whitt, but if you are a punter then go half and half or sit and float.

I'm going to enjoy the low floating rates as long as possible and wait and see what happens next.

NOT for the faint hearted. :-)