Bill English Blatantly acts dumb in interview

[Bobsyouruncle]

Build costs are a good indicator. The range will be almost identical for houses as I am sure you know.

[eri]

exactly

so probably no change to the current affordability problem

until 2020

and if by then unitary plan has been substantially changed enough to allow five 5 story wooden townhouses to be built on a large section anywhere in auckland

and 100,000s of consents issued for these

and thousands of builders lined up

they may start addressing the problem

[Bobsyouruncle]

Right on Eri.

Our growth is like so many desirable cities. i think we will become number 1 in desirability because our isolation makes us a safe haven from ISIS. We could see this boom go on and on and on.

Which is great because it will push people into the provinces and fill up a lot of empty regional centres. Heck even Rotorua and Whangarei may start growing again.

Getting jobs into the regions is the tricky part. Auckland house prices will cause rural drift for sure. But how does government get the jobs to follow? I have no idea.

[Bobsyouruncle]

Other than Twyfords nonsense at the end of the article, this is a good overview of reality. Welcome to the world!

http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/74692089/Aucklands-rising-house-prices-simply-catching-up-to-other-global-cities

[Boom]

The fact that Auckland is still cheaper than most similar cities world wide

Median house prices close to 2 mil? Coming to Auckland in the next decade, (or so).

All these left leaners want to make being a great city a crime.

Auckland is struggling to survive as a city. Compared to overseas city's it's an overpriced poorly funded and resourced dysfunctional infrastructure lacking spread out village. We have the best beaches, waterfalls, and bush but most are too busy working to make ends meet or stuck in traffic to enjoy them.

2 million dollar house prices doesn't make a place great when the majority of households would struggle to earn that amount over their working lives.

Righties seem to want us to be like America... with its great inequality and high crime. Funnily enough the rich in America die much younger than the rich in more equitable countries.

[Davo36]

It doesn't have to be an oversupply or a big decrease in demand for the situation to come crashing down.

What about a calamity back in India or China or Australia, and those people decide to take their money out to prop up the investments at home?

Or foot and mouth disease here in NZ?

Or dairy prices falling even further, forcing farm sales?

Or a million other things that we can't possibly foresee.

And yes eri, Auckland Council STILL stopping house constrction whereever/whenever they can. Spoke to someone today who is trying to build a house. Was told the resource consent will take 6 months to process and another who consent will be needed for a pipe to make a crossing across a drainage ditch (it's on a farm) to form a driveway to the house.

[Bob Kane]

Looking forward to your detailed counter-argument about how Auckland housing prices are sustainable and not a bubble.

Just watch Auckland house prices over the next <pick a number - say 10> years.
The real world will speak and you will slink off.

[Bobsyouruncle]

Auckland is struggling to survive as a city.

You obviously haven't been to Auckland in the last 20 years.

[eri]

It doesn't have to be an oversupply or a big decrease in demand for the situation to come crashing down.

What about a calamity back in India or China or Australia, and those people decide to take their money out to prop up the investments at home?

Or foot and mouth disease here in NZ?

Or dairy prices falling even further, forcing farm sales?

Or a million other things that we can't possibly foresee.

not sure there are enough non-resident indian and chinese home owners in nz that calamities there would crash prices here

and now that tourism has overtaken dairy as an export earner it's less important too

what could maybe cause a crash is specifically engineered mortgage limits

limiting people to 1 mortgage

but that would be a zimbabwean or venezuelan type response

that would crush the middle class and damn the country to a generation of stagnation

hardly worth it just to to let short sighted people say

"they came, they wanted, they took, they destroyed

they regretted it, why didn't someone stop them"

[Kbkiwi]

Won't happen Eri. Anybody saying the sky is going to fall is ignoring

100 years of history

The fact that Auckland is still cheaper than most similar cities world wide

Inflation

Global safety issues making NZ more attractive

We are up to 4.7 million in NZ as at 3PM today and they are going to keep coming to Auckland.

We are now top 5 deisrability and only 27 on the list cost wise.

http://www.globalpropertyguide.com/most-expensive-cities

Price to rent ratio we don't even make the top 50.

Median house prices close to 2 mil? Coming to Auckland in the next decade, (or so).

All these left leaners want to make being a great city a crime.

Who do you propose is paying the mortgage on these $2 million average Auckland houses? Are you suggesting average incomes in Auckland are going to rise fast enough that the average Auckland house buyer can afford mortgage payments of $100,000-$200,000 per annum? And investors will be able to rent out there average Auckalnd property for $2000+ per week?

delusions.

[Bobsyouruncle]

Exactly. Have you not heard of history KB? It's happened for the last hundred years exactly like that. Only difference is many of those periods were in super high interest rate environments so now we have likely low rates for some years the growth could be even faster.

[Boom]

You obviously haven't been to Auckland in the last 20 years.

You're right... I've only been here the last 10

You obviously don't know how to debate the points or replies.....

[Boom]

If house prices cost $2 million and the council/govt needs to buy them to knock them down for further infrastructure what do you think will happen to rates?

[Davo36]

Exactly. Have you not heard of history KB? It's happened for the last hundred years exactly like that. Only difference is many of those periods were in super high interest rate environments so now we have likely low rates for some years the growth could be even faster.

As I've said a bunch of times here, don't listen to this person who has been bankrupted 3 times.

NZ house prices have in fact fallen. Greatly after the 1987 crash and again after the GFC in 2009, albeit only a bit.

We could see a house price correction here again IMHO.

[Kbkiwi]

Exactly. Have you not heard of history KB? It's happened for the last hundred years exactly like that. Only difference is many of those periods were in super high interest rate environments so now we have likely low rates for some years the growth could be even faster.

I think you failed basic econ 101 didn't you? Low interest rates means income growth will be much slower, not faster.