What do you really think about Auckland??

[Tom]

It was 81 Litten Rd. 3 bed main house with illegal downstairs. Had another bedroom downstairs and laundry with about 5 ft 6 headroom in several spots :-)
2 bed minor dwelling with an awful rehab.
1181 sqm site but heritage zone so no subdivision possible.
Pre auction offer accepted by vendor of 1.16 mil. Sold for 1.32 mil
Great area but mad money. Bought by a player but I can't see the play in the deal unless he wants to live in it for the school zones. Mcleans is hard to get into

Thanks Damap,

Very interesting and I appreciate your time to reply.

Cheers

Tom

[marklowes]

Another 180 odd net migrants added to manawatu, mainly P.N, in February.

Considering only 160 odd houses for sale in the city (trademe) and only 92 for rent (also from trademe), little wonder we are seeing multiple offers and a scramble to even get a place to rent.

To put in perspective, Auckland, which has a well publicized housing shortage, got 3890 net migrants in February, but also has 7733 houses for sale (twice the number) and 4019 places for rent.

This record immigration is lasting longer than almost anyone thought. Making the mid 2000s look miniature in comparison. It will hold prices up in auckland but I think we are in for anot her mid 2000s price explosion in the regions as prices get re-rated after a decade of flat lining.

[Damap]

Interesting though I have a good mate building houses in PN, 2 small subdivisions, almost impossible to get buyers even though he is building nice homes at the lower end of values in the town. Maybe a very high percentage of renters there?

[marklowes]

Ashurst? Long way from town. 400k houses being built, sounds cheap by auckland standards but median in pn is still only 300k so half sell for under 300k. 400k second hand gets you a pool and tennis court

[Boom]

As with any profession. My point is not that there are endless jobs for graduates.

To the contrary. There is no shortage of potential job applicants but Govt cannot afford more Dr's, Nurses, teachers, or cops.

Their workloads are increasing. Hence = increased demand.

Housing prices with limited wage growth is disencentivising many people in such services from working in Auckland. The potential outcome may be a skills loss and brain drain.

If public schools in well off areas such as Grammar start finding it hard to attract teachers... what would the flow on effects be..

[Boom]

Demand is determined by the ability and willingness to pay. In Australia and the UK supply of medical graduates is far exceeding demand in many specialities.

1000 people apply for a police intake of 60.

Just because the funding for positions is limited does not mean demand for police services from the public or crime is reduced.

Burglary resolution rates are an obvious example.

An aging population requires less or more health services?

[Eugene]

1000 people apply for a police intake of 60.

Just because the funding for positions is limited does not mean demand for police services from the public or crime is reduced.

Burglary resolution rates are an obvious example.

An aging population requires less or more health services?

There is chatter about fast advances in robotics. The increased productivity from robots taking over simple jobs would free resources/money to employ health workers, engineers, teachers.

Sorry about hijacking thread...

[Boom]

There is chatter about fast advances in robotics. The increased productivity from robots taking over simple jobs would free resources/money to employ health workers, engineers, teachers.

Sorry about hijacking thread...

Yeh I've majorly threadjacked. In my opinion the prob with robotics will be mass job losses that will not be replaceable.. will be new jobs for IT and service technicians but 1000s will be unemployed. Private productivity will increase but I doubt govt's will, most depts still running on IT systems from early 90s. Less paye jobs = less tax take, more crime, more benefit payments and housing subsidies.

[Acanthurus]

Their workloads are increasing. Hence = increased demand.

Housing prices with limited wage growth is disencentivising many people in such services from working in Auckland. The potential outcome may be a skills loss and brain drain.

I agree that on the whole, workload is increasing. But supply is also massively increasing. In contrary to the borderline propaganda preached by the higher powers at medical school, for many specialties demand is not outstripping supply. Take a look at the negotiated locum rates for house officers and registrars, see how they have plummeted over the past few years.

What's really upsetting is seeing those young specialists who have specialised in fields that require them to live in Auckland or other big cities (e.g. Rad Onc, Neurosurg, Cardiothoracics, IR, NICU etc etc), but cannot afford a house in Auckland, or even more commonly, cannot find a job in Auckland.

[Boom]

I agree that on the whole, workload is increasing. But supply is also massively increasing. In contrary to the borderline propaganda preached by the higher powers at medical school, for many specialties demand is not outstripping supply. Take a look at the negotiated locum rates for house officers and registrars, see how they have plummeted over the past few years.

What's really upsetting is seeing those young specialists who have specialised in fields that require them to live in Auckland or other big cities (e.g. Rad Onc, Neurosurg, Cardiothoracics, IR, NICU etc etc), but cannot afford a house in Auckland, or even more commonly, cannot find a job in Auckland.

Totally agree. FYI you seen this? http://www.health.govt.nz/publicatio...luation-report

An hours traffic or an hours worth of road works detours at night on top of those long shifts in Auckland just doesn't really seem appealing compared to other cities which have better public transport and are more affordable to live in.

[Acanthurus]

Totally agree. FYI you seen this?

An hours traffic or an hours worth of road works detours at night on top of those long shifts in Auckland just doesn't really seem appealing compared to other cities which have better public transport and are more affordable to live in.

I have personally worked with PAs (physician assistants) in Orthopaedics and geriatrics. I have a colleague who has worked with a PA in gen surg. The gen surg PA got into big trouble eventually because she was essentially practising medicine. IMHO, PAs are bad news for RMOs.

I remember the days when I used to drive back home after handover at 2230 hrs, and getting lost because of all the stupid detours, then having to be back in the hospital by 0700 hrs the next day. Crap lifestyle on top of crap pay.

Pick a a specialty that will allow you to work outside of Auckland, without fear of PA encroachment would be the safest bet.

[donthatetheplayer]

I have personally worked with PAs (physician assistants) in Orthopaedics and geriatrics. I have a colleague who has worked with a PA in gen surg. The gen surg PA got into big trouble eventually because she was essentially practising medicine. IMHO, PAs are bad news for RMOs.

I remember the days when I used to drive back home after handover at 2230 hrs, and getting lost because of all the stupid detours, then having to be back in the hospital by 0700 hrs the next day. Crap lifestyle on top of crap pay.

Pick a a specialty that will allow you to work outside of Auckland, without fear of PA encroachment would be the safest bet.

I think I've stumbled into the medical professional / abbreviation thread...

[Lissica]

1000 people apply for a police intake of 60.

Just because the funding for positions is limited does not mean demand for police services from the public or crime is reduced.

Burglary resolution rates are an obvious example.

An aging population requires less or more health services?

One can say exactly the same of houses. If you have, or are willing to spend, say, $100,000 for a house in a major city, you are on the wrong end of the demand curve.

[Lissica]

I wish that were the case. Think about it. How many new trainees does the college of physicians take on a year? How many physicians are retiring a year? The same can be said of many other specialties.

Notice how more and more GPs are working evenings and weekends now compared to even a few years ago? It's not because they want to, it's because the young GPs (employees, not partners), are made to take on crappy hours.

There's already a big bottleneck at the registrar level. If you are 2 years away from graduating, you should start making connections/publish papers/do audits in the specialty you want to go into, otherwise you'll have a tough time getting a trainee position in most specialties.

Certain specialities do have an oversupply. Anaesthetists and Emergency physicians in some regions, for instance.

Agree with the bottleneck at registrar level...There aren't enough training positions to soak up the vast numbers of new grads, esp in Australia and the UK, which is why many end up in NZ.

GP surgeries open late nights and weekends as a service to patients- often staffed equally by partners and associates. Practice owners get paid more, but they generally work longer hours too.

The average hours worked by GPs is dropping, not increasing, according to the RNZCGP workforce survey: http://www.rnzcgp.org.nz/assets/docu...eport-2015.pdf

[Tom]

Hi everyone,

Did anybody else attend the Economic Update last night with Tony Alexander and Matthew Gilligan?

It was quite good, and a huge turnout of people there. There must have been 700 people at least.

Tony Alexander is very bullish about Auckland market for the next few years. He is also of the opinion that interest rates are staying low for several years yet and that the Reserve Banks of the world realise that they can't use interest rates to control house price inflation the same way they have been able to is the past (due the to negative impact on the rest of their economy) so are likely to continue to use other tools (such as the LVR restrictions etc) to control the market if it gets out of hand.

Matthew Gilligan showed examples of several developments he is doing at the moment, mainly small-scale subdivisions but also some fairly substantial commercial and residential developments as well. I'm not convinced those are right for the 'average investor' though as he was suggesting, I've seen that strategy go very bad when the market turns and it takes a lot of capital to fund those projects as well. The strategy will suit some investors but certainly not most which I felt was the message. Just my opinion though as that's all I have. All the same it was good to hear his views, he's a smart guy, and see what he's up to.

This is obviously only a couple of snippets of what what included last night but overall I thought it was interesting and worth attending. Does anybody else who attended have any feedback?

Cheers

Tom