Auckland slowing down

[motoman]

Blame motoman :-)

i did rectify by stating it was fictitious and based on a random number i pulled out of the sky regarding 30% per annum for the next 15 years.

i cant believe people are buying into this highly skilled immigrant propaganda, whilst half of nz leaves because after they have been educated they can no longer afford housing.

and regardless of whether the street cleaner is an immigrant or a kiwi, they wont be able to afford the rents investors need to make this bubble viable. reality check.

or like i said, we ghetto the city with shoe boxes that cost people 75% of their wage (again another made up number haha).

the point is, a city needs affordable housing and not 90 minutes commute from the city, unless you want the janitors cleaning your office block toilets at 10am after you start work hahaha. mmmmmm

[propertybuyingNZ]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11506159

"Jan O'Donoghue, QV home value northern operations manager, said speculator trading patterns showed signs that they thought the market could soon turn.
"QV stats show more than 2000 homes have been bought and sold more than once over the past 12 months.
"Often, nothing has been done to improve these properties at all and speculators are just on-selling it and taking the capital gain."

what do you think?

[Damap]

Complete drivel. She said on air it was because traders were selling pre October 1 to avoid paying tax. Ignorant nonsense. The fact is any rising market brings the bottom feeders out. Most of these will be Woods disciples in South Auckland probably. IT is what traders do. And it has NEVER been a leading indicator of a boom ending.

[elguapo]

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/n...ectid=11506159

"Jan O'Donoghue, QV home value northern operations manager, said speculator trading patterns showed signs that they thought the market could soon turn.
"QV stats show more than 2000 homes have been bought and sold more than once over the past 12 months.
"Often, nothing has been done to improve these properties at all and speculators are just on-selling it and taking the capital gain."

what do you think?

A figure of '2000 bought and solid within 12 months' is meaningless without figures from previous periods sufficient to give a trend. Is it more, or less, or the same? We don't know, so no conclusion can be reached, she is just pulling it from her arse.

Her statement that 'often nothing has been done...' is pure speculation, she don't have a clue and is again pulling it from her arse.

For a person who runs a data collection business, she seems remarkably, shockingly, blind to using actual data.

[marklowes]

Yup thats QV for you. Jonno from QV also comes out with assertions stated as facts as if he knows something others don't. None of these people from my research have had a long time in property themselves or have any education that makes their 'opinions' any more valid than yours or mine. What they do have is an understanding of marketing principles and how to get headlines (free advertising) for QV. Never rely on media as an information source as it's always tainted with a bias towards what sells over whats real. Reality most of the time is very boring so never actually makes it into the press.

[propertybuyingNZ]

great! were exactly my thoughts, no back up with numbers, usual misleading article, good to know we share the same view.
and your comment is spot on Elguapo: ("For a person who runs a data collection business, she seems remarkably, shockingly, blind to using actual data.")

[Bluekiwi]

Complete drivel. She said on air it was because traders were selling pre October 1 to avoid paying tax. Ignorant nonsense. The fact is any rising market brings the bottom feeders out. Most of these will be Woods disciples in South Auckland probably. IT is what traders do. And it has NEVER been a leading indicator of a boom ending.

Haha.... dont you hate those disciples

I have strong market feedback that Papakura is on fire at the moment, very high demand for rentals and property to buy.
Prices doing very well.

In fact, I am absolutely shocked at the prices in Manurewa right now, all of south auckland.
Prices are around the 500 to 550k for 3 bedroom full site houses.

Makes me feel richer.
Larger houses I have down that way which I thought were worth 500k to 525k must be worth, in current market, closer to 600k.

Where the shore has gone crazy first half of this year, I think South is now in catch up mode, where rumours were early in the year that south was slowing down.

I do however know a lot of people who are buying just out of auckland as they cant afford to live where they want to.
One example is people buying stanmore bay or stillwater since they cant afford East Coast Bays.

My gut feeling is that the really good area's where prices are hitting 900k to 1.2m are close to the ceiling of what can be achieved and will just simmer along.
That price is just too much for some home buyers so they look outside of those areas, and look to Papakura / Manurewa and buy something in that 500k to 600k bracket.

[speights boy]

....... remarkably, shockingly, blind to using actual data.

Simply following the lead of our PM when talking to us Joe Public types.

PM "There is no data supporting the notion that this is any sort of significant issue"
JP " Are you collecting the data ?"
PM " No"
JP " Why not ?"
PM " There is no evidence that this is a problem so we don't think it is necessary to collect the data "
JP " Riiiiiight "
PM " Nice new flag that eh boys !"

[partya]

Interesting - First Auckland house price fall in six months.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11507286

[Wayne]

The end is nigh

[PTILoveYou]

price stops rising in central or north good suburbs first, then ripple out to south.

south tends to rise and drop last.

[marklowes]

price stops rising in central or north good suburbs first, then ripple out to south.

south tends to rise and drop last.

2003 any body?

Dairy price falls, 3 OCR cuts, massive immigration boom the previous 2 years due to 9/11.

Auck prices still rose, just at closer to 5% p.a instead of 20%.

The rest of NZ grew at 20% p.a for a few years up to 2007-ish.

Small towns (under 20k) however didnt hold these gains during GFC. Bigger towns (50k plus, including Wellington!) generally held gains but have been flat lined at near 2006-2007 levels ever since. Interesting times a head!

[PTILoveYou]

2003 any body?

Dairy price falls, 3 OCR cuts, massive immigration boom the previous 2 years due to 9/11.

Auck prices still rose, just at closer to 5% p.a instead of 20%.

The rest of NZ grew at 20% p.a for a few years up to 2007-ish.

Small towns (under 20k) however didnt hold these gains during GFC. Bigger towns (50k plus, including Wellington!) generally held gains but have been flat lined at near 2006-2007 levels ever since. Interesting times a head!

Yeah I was wondering about 2003, there was a 50 basis point drop in the OCR at the time.

I remembered my mum's property went from 200k bought in 1999, and sold around 2003 for 350k!

Indeed interesting times ahead.

BNZ just came out with a 'jaw dropping' 4.35% for 1 year!

Which makes my 4.49% for 1 year deals look silly now!

[marklowes]

Yeah I was wondering about 2003, there was a 50 basis point drop in the OCR at the time.

I remembered my mum's property went from 200k bought in 1999, and sold around 2003 for 350k!

Indeed interesting times ahead.

BNZ just came out with a 'jaw dropping' 4.35% for 1 year!

Which makes my 4.49% for 1 year deals look silly now!

Yeah I saw that rate announced this morning too.. That sort of cheap money last seen in nz in the 60's. Last time we cut rates was in 2011 in response to Chch and that sparked the auckland price rises. I think this time it will spark (already is in Hamilton) prices rises outside of auckland

[PTILoveYou]

I think this time it will spark (already is in Hamilton) prices rises outside of auckland

Drop in interest rate = housing more affordable.

Say interest rates dropped from 5.35% last year to 4.35% this year, that's 25% drop!

So that means house prices can increase by 25% to reach the same level of affordability!!!