Property cycle

[HR75]

Hello

Am reading Kieran's Property cycle book. Are we in slump or recovery phase at the moment and is it beginning mid or end phase. Do you think this would change in the next 6 months ...would appreciate your views.

[whitt]

We are in middle of slump.
Check the table pg174 start of appendices

[eri]

i don't know the book

but i suspect we may be in for a loooooong shallow recovery

and if so you'll only be able to pick the mid and end points years after the fact...

[whitt]

eri
A recovery is when certain property cycle drivers start to improve.
A slump ( which i think we are in middle of ) is when these conditions are are bad.

I suspect a long slow slump instead is ahead for us all.

[HR75]

Thanks. Prices of the houses when we go for open homes dont give any indication although newspapers and the situation the country is facing is something to be considered.

would like your views or double dip forecasted overseas...is that why you think a long slow slump is ahead?

[Orkibi]

We are already in the double dip in NZ property market - if you remember last year when Interest rates where very low (5 years at 6%) the market lifted for a short term, now we are back in the other way.

[HR75]

Thanks guys.

[Kerry Christian]

We are in a slump

A possible rise next year, however expect another 1-3 yrs of a slump after that.

just my opinion!

[Puff]

Agree, still in a slump. Some parts of the country more so than others, even though some RE Agents in Akl doing a bit at the moment.
Great time for investors, I have been hearing of a few of the bigger ones, buying up large at the moment. They think the time is right obviously.
A bit like Kerry, and again only my opinion, I think things will remain similar with a few small ups and downs over the next 2 years, at least 1 more year.

If you want a list of 7 properties available at the moment to help you with the state of the market, mainly cashflow contact me.

Cheers

[Bluekiwi]

You have to pay for his monthly subscription to find that out.

But if I had to hazard a guess, since we are in the GFC, the greatest recession in 50 years, I would have to say......

Rest only for subsribed viewers.
Send $50/ month to me to hear the rest.

p.s it ryhymes with pump.

[Xav]

Dump? .

[Kerry Christian]

Great thread.

What is the real question here- are we still in a slump, and if so when do we come out of this slump. ????

Personally, this is the time for looking for bargains.

[whitt]

Great thread.
Personally, this is the time for looking for bargains.

If you have borrowing power still however. Most banks have tightened rules and some investors can't buy.

The trick is pre-slump positioning yourself to have some funding ready for the slump. Even allowing for banks tightening rules.

Yes we are in a slump still and no signs of it changing in the near future.

[WGN ex-property manager]

The slump will end about 18 months before the media notice, by which time it's too late for bargains!.

Get your cheap cash-flow now. A long slump means more time to get more properties in the bag... which is good. A shorter slump means capital gains sooner... which is good.

Its all just GOOD !

[Orkibi]

I agree, there are hips of good deals around.
I'm currently working on 2 Cash flow Deals which would have been hard to come-by in hot market.