The Truth is out there…

[eri]

speaking to a friend today about the chances of massive inflation due to all the cash being printed with nothing to back it up

he said the theory was right but that in practice there are so many other things affecting inflation that it was of yet impossible to say what will happen

the example he used was of japan since 1990 where the government has borrowed HUGELY for 18 years and printing lots and lots of money

yet has been locked in a deflationary spiral with many jobs having zero wage growth over that time and no one complaining as interest rates have been 1-2% for borrowers and most things got cheaper to buy...

[exnzpat]

ON the Ruskies: A few years ago Wien energy tried to push us to changing to natural gas. They told us it was wonderful and it would only cost us €1500 to create a connection from the middle of the street to our properties boundary; a distance of 1.5 metres!! As the house is a further 15 metres from the boundary and we would have to up date our furnace...........we decided it wasn't such a wonderful idea.............over the winter 2007/2008 the oil prices were a bit punishing ( thankfully we had the solid fuel furnace as well), but this year we are laughing!!! ( swings and round abouts!).

I am all for sustainability ( I can recall my tramping days on the west coast and the maxim always leave the hut well prepared (firewood ) for the next group).

I don't argue that the world is going to have a rough time weaning its self off Fossil fuels. I worked 7 years for the interantional Atomic Energy Agency and I was surprised to see what Nuclear energy can do ( and the waste though long lasting is considerably less that of a fossil fuel plant ( 1-2 years waste =the size of an Ice hockey puck). Please don't declare NZ is nuclear free: the sign ( if it still exists) on the way from Wellington Airport that said welcome to NZ nuclear free capital was a very bad joke: where is NZs main radiation lab located? NZ recently had to dispose of nuclear waste, at sea, after some material containers were damaged ( medical radioactive sources).

However the real possibility, if these international groups stop fantasizing, and get on with it is fusion..............problem is one fusion reactor would supply more power than NZ would need in the foreseeable future (I say fantasizing as some of the people I met involved with fusion technology were all going Sci fi and planning the development of autonomous robots that could repair plasma reactor walls while surviving neutron blasts and temperatures higher than the centre of the sun. It struck me that Fusion is more obtainable than the robots they were talking about.

I still don't accept that energy is a necessary component of a definition of money, so those who do will just have to accept I have a very different frame of reference. I see energy as a commodity.

I go back to my example of transportation and horses, intially the combustion engine was a poor replacement but in the end it had far more potential than the horse ( eg Farming technology) I don't doubt there will be disruption but there must be change.

The worlds economy I just can't see it collapsing ...........it seems to me that to do so would see us all back in a modern repeat of the dark ages. As for gold and silver these two commodities, as money, were seen as a brake on economic growth in the late 19th century.

Yes, yes, yes.


Interesting that Rutherford, considered the Father of Nuclear Physics, is actually a New Zealander! And yet New Zealand in its zeal to appear self-reliant and self-important fell for the ludicrous notion of a Nuclear Free Zone. Even Buttlers’ fictional Erewhonions, who rejected all things mechanical, would not be so stupid to reject an industry that could be full of so much promise if planned, handled, and overseen correctly. Jobs in creation, jobs in production, jobs in delivery, jobs in disposal – and these jobs would number in the tens of thousands. Then there are the other jobs; jobs that are the unintentional consequence of the greater development -- this is the spillover of jobs into other industries.

Technology is good!


Does it matter if Richard Pearce was the first to fly? His technology could have been developed into a fully fledged New Zealand industry if understood and handled by a properly educated populace and government. Instead he was branded a crack-pot and lunatic. And now Air New Zealand must go to Boeing and Airbus for their aircraft -- foreign companies, in foreign lands -- but ruled by educated people who saw the application of the aircraft for what it was.


As to Fusion power, interestingly, one of the leading theorists in this field was my High School Physics teacher, also a New Zealander. He, like Rutherford, pursues his career and dreams by living in another country -- he gives to them because they give back. And so, that technology now belongs to them.

Is it unanimous? Should we or shouldn’t we take the hairpin bends out of the Desert Road?

[Gatekeeper]

Jobs in creation, jobs in production, jobs in delivery, jobs in disposal – and these jobs would number in the tens of thousands. Then there are the other jobs; jobs that are the unintentional consequence of the greater development -- this is the spillover of jobs into other industries.

Technology is good!

Yeah, technology is good, but that doesn't make nuclear the right source of power for NZ does it? It's overkill IMHO.

For one, you can't just run one nuclear power station, you have to have two.
Can't have us all going without power during maintenance periods.
You need to look at the costs per person to build just one nuclear plant to see it is just wishful thinking, and more money going overseas to those with the expertise (probably NZ exports like you say).

I'm banking on wind and tide for NZ. We have the best most consistent winds in the world and a huge coastline. For countries like the US winds not really that viable. Why go down a nuclear road when we have alternatives that are reasonably sustainable.

Why would you want to swap one finite energy source like oil with another finite source Uranium. The price of a southerly can't go up or be manipulated by overseas corporate interests.

Fusion isn't in the picture, and may never be. Red herring IMHO.

[Austrokiwi]

Yeah, technology is good, but that doesn't make nuclear the right source of power for NZ does it? It's overkill IMHO.

For one, you can't just run one nuclear power station, you have to have two.
Can't have us all going without power during maintenance periods.
You need to look at the costs per person to build just one nuclear plant to see it is just wishful thinking, and more money going overseas to those with the expertise (probably NZ exports like you say).

I'm banking on wind and tide for NZ. We have the best most consistent winds in the world and a huge coastline. For countries like the US winds not really that viable. Why go down a nuclear road when we have alternatives that are reasonably sustainable.

Why would you want to swap one finite energy source like oil with another finite source Uranium. The price of a southerly can't go up or be manipulated by overseas corporate interests.

Fusion isn't in the picture, and may never be. Red herring IMHO.

My best mate ( after my dog and wife) is a Phd electrical engineer. I recall him saying NZ with its hydro power doesn't have a generation problem it has a storage problem! He mentioned that NZ is one of the few countries where wind power is worth while. Even so the unreliability of wind means wind power can only ever be a secondary means of generation.

A couple of interesting points on wind power:

1. Greenies and nimby's seem to be preventing the installation of more wind farms
2. The bizarre situation with current turbine technology is the most expensive, least reliable technology has come to predominate ( Propeller like turbines) Actually the best and most efficient and cheapest wind turbine is one that would have vertical blades but the wind turbine manufacturers ( I guess through subsidies) have invested in factories tooled for the massive propeller type( I know propeller isn't the right term). I suppose its a situation like the qwerty keyboard.

Gate Keeper I don't want to get into a argument on Nuke power but too many NZrs have an emotional reaction to the subject. It is one area in NZ culture where freedom of speech effectively doesn't exist.

What do you mean you need two plants? if you mean a fuel processing plant...............I think NZs international obligations would rule against NZ setting up a fuel processing plant ( non-proliferation treaty).

[SmallBrain]

It seems people are forgetting geothermal power.

Watched a Nat Geo doco on it the other day and geothermal is considered the next big thing providing the next drilling tech (using something like superheated gas instead of mechanical drill bit) being developed is successful allowing much much deeper drilling than the current mechanical tech ever could.

[Gatekeeper]

Gate Keeper I don't want to get into a argument on Nuke power but too many NZrs have an emotional reaction to the subject. It is one area in NZ culture where freedom of speech effectively doesn't exist.

For sure they do. No arguments with me, but worthy of discussion.

What do you mean you need two plants? if you mean a fuel processing plant...............I think NZs international obligations would rule against NZ setting up a fuel processing plant ( non-proliferation treaty).

No, I mean back-up. Most nuclear plants are about 1000mw (?), and they shut off if there is a problem/maintenance. This means we need instant backup to take on the load if it goes down. Our biggest power plant in NZ is currently about 300/400mw. We need a second nuclear reactor as a backup.
If you think wind has problems, nuclear has many more. Wind is cheaper by about half here, simple. Our backup is hydro & geothermal.

Yep, there are many nimby's out there. We have two windfarms going ahead in Wellington currently, one monstrosity out at Makara with huge turbines that dominate everything, and a small more people friendly windfarm using a smaller NZ manufactured, less intrusive variety of turbine at the back of Brooklyn. I think eventually the big players will work out it is cheaper to build smaller with less nimby problems likely and less earthworks and disruption needed. There are a lot more planned, but some are too dominant and will more than likely be stopped.

One of our power companies is currently offering VAWT"s (vertical turbines) to homeowners, you can buy and net meter or just have one of theirs on your land. There are various sizes available. It's moving along pretty nicely here for wind at the moment. There's talk of a tidal system for the Cook Strait also, so it's not like we are sitting on our todds waiting for nuclear to save us.

[Badger]

A couple of interesting points on wind power:

1. Greenies and nimby's seem to be preventing the installation of more wind farms)

Unfortunatly as with most *things* in our society wind power has been usurped by corporate interests who's mantra is about giagantagism and monopoly.

Where it should perhaps be based around small local generation units run by small trusts or small private enterprises so all benefit instead of the same special interest groups with the right connections...

1. The bizarre situation with current turbine technology is the most expensive, least reliable technology has come to predominate ( Propeller like turbines) Actually the best and most efficient and cheapest wind turbine is one that would have vertical blades but the wind turbine manufacturers ( I guess through subsidies) have invested in factories tooled for the massive propeller type( I know propeller isn't the right term). I suppose its a situation like the qwerty keyboard.

Mmmm perhaps some of those *special interest groups* have some nice subsidies?

[Austrokiwi]

[quote=Gatekeeper;159270]For sure they do. No arguments with me, but worthy of discussion.

No, I mean back-up. Most nuclear plants are about 1000mw (?), and they shut off if there is a problem/maintenance. This means we need instant backup to take on the load if it goes down. Our biggest power plant in NZ is currently about 300/400mw. We need a second nuclear reactor as a backup.
If you think wind has problems, nuclear has many more. Wind is cheaper by about half here, simple. Our backup is hydro & geothermal.

I half agree but I think you have it the wrong way round Hydro( not sure about geothermal) is the main generator {well should be if they would keep the infrastructure well maintained} and wind and others are the back up.

One of our power companies is currently offering VAWT"s (vertical turbines) to homeowners, you can buy and net meter or just have one of theirs on your land. There are various sizes available. It's moving along pretty nicely here for wind at the moment. There's talk of a tidal system for the Cook Strait also, so it's not like we are sitting on our todds waiting for nuclear to save us.

Glad to hear about the vertical turbines. They cope with higher wind speeds. the Standard turbine blades are very expensive because of the huge forces on them. Each blade must be carefully constructed so they don't disintergrate from the G forces ( or the odd UFO ). The vertical blades can be supported top and bottom so are far more robust also they don't require the heavily engineered gimbal ( that may not be the right term) that allows standard turbines to turn into the wind. As for tidal I was surprised to see that system being looked at, perhaps a case of boffins' and toys, there is a Portuguese wave generation system being trialled off the coast of Scotland that may well be far more promising. Ideal for Southland ( with Southport as the maintenance centre) seas.

[Gatekeeper]

Austro I wasn't meaning that wind would be our main source of power, but it does need backup (when the wind isn't blowing). We could have a great set-up.
My grandfather (a Scottish engineer) worked for the Ministry of Works and designed the hydro turbines down south. He was then sent to work on the Aswan Dam by the NZ Govt. so it's in my blood and I've followed it all for years.

(Shame about the Nile silt and all it's ramifications - oh well, there is always unseen consequences of our meddling).