Financial Armageddon!!

[drelly]

Assuming this bail-out goes ahead and there's yet another flood of liquidity, how long do you guys think it will be before it all turns really nasty?

[k1w1]

You're assuming it will?

[drelly]

It seems inevitable to me. Either a short sharp shock or a long drawn out spasm with lots of drooling and gnashing of teeth. The US Govt takes over bad debts, in turn allowing the same or new companies to repeat past performances. In the process devaluing their dollar. I'm just glad that we're not as tied to the UK and the US as we were 30-odd years ago.

[k1w1]

I see what you mean. I thought the idea is that it is supposed to draw out the pain a bit, so that it's not a short, sharp shock. A more controlled drop, in other words.

[tanmedia]

It seems inevitable to me. Either a short sharp shock or a long drawn out spasm with lots of drooling and gnashing of teeth. The US Govt takes over bad debts, in turn allowing the same or new companies to repeat past performances. In the process devaluing their dollar. I'm just glad that we're not as tied to the UK and the US as we were 30-odd years ago.

I hope you're not taking the pis. I can assure NZ has not "psychologically decoupled" from the UK or the US, particularly related to debt leveraging. It's pretty delusional to think that we're more like Asian culltures who are inclined to save and not leverage themselves to the hilt.

[drelly]

k1w1, I guess that will depend on what they do to prevent the same thing happening again.

Tanmedia, That's not what I meant at all. I wasn't inferring we're like Asia either. I was referring to the broader number of trading partners we have now.

[tanmedia]

k1w1, I guess that will depend on what they do to prevent the same thing happening again.

Tanmedia, That's not what I meant at all. I wasn't inferring we're like Asia either. I was referring to the broader number of trading partners we have now.

Well, you're right. We do have more trading partners than 30 years ago and the future of NZ primary exports is bright. But I guess we're talking about a whole different monster right now.

[Commercial Dan]

It is naieve to talk about gold in a negative way right now, none of us would have experienced anything like what is going on right now in our lifetimes....expect the unexpected and prepare for the unexpected I say!

There is potential for there to be total collapse of the financial system where banks have no credit and money becomes a worthless piece of paper.

[k1w1]

Naive I may be, but I know there are an awful lot of powerful and vastly richer men then I handling this, and they have an awful lot more to lose, too. They won't want to see it pan out that way.

So, CD, what % of personal cash are you turning into gold?

[Commercial Dan]

50% or more, I'm confident it will pay off

[Badger]

Naive I may be, but I know there are an awful lot of powerful and vastly richer men then I handling this, and they have an awful lot more to lose, too. They won't want to see it pan out that way.

Those parasites bought Englands gold for 250$ per ounce along with Royal Families and all the others in the drivers seat back in 2000-01. Better known as Browns bottom. They probably have been buying gold by the ton from the release of central bank holdings the same banks they control. Its known as insider trading!

There main aim at the moment is to keep the majority ignorant of resource depletion, with its how's and whats in the current financial setup based on growth economics. Seems growth economics has run out of abundant raw materials to keep going...

[tanmedia]

Why I am Bearish on Gold:

With an earlier post I indicated my major concern/feeling is with the current financial crisis is that major investors will need to find cash, The quickest way to find cash is to sell gold stocks. it is this process that I think will really put the breaks on the gold price............the real test of this feeling starts in October and extends through to January.......... The Indian Wedding season starts soon, and Gold Jewlery is expect gift. So usually there is an increase in Gold price during this period. This is a better indicator of demand than gold futures as it indicates exactly what a large number of consumers are prepared to pay.

I still hold to the point of view of holding a small proportion of gold as an insurance policy but I am expecting to take a hit on that ( Obviously I hope I am wrong).

How about the following points?

-- The confidence crisis in the US Dollar is not over. Gold is negatively correlated with the American currency.
-- Gold production decreased between the first semester of 2007 and first semester of 2008.
-- From January to July this year, central banks reduced the amount of gold sold in the market by 25%.

[Commercial Dan]

How can anyone be bearish on Gold, that is foolhardy.

Any donkey should know the prospects have never been better, $US2000 is on the cards next year without doubt now.....how do you create $US700 billion, out of thin air?

This is so bloody obvious and one of the easiest predictions I have made to date.....GOLD is GOING UP!!!!

[tanmedia]

How can anyone be bearish on Gold, that is foolhardy.

Any donkey should know the prospects have never been better, $US2000 is on the cards next year without doubt now.....how do you create $US700 billion, out of thin air?

This is so bloody obvious and one of the easiest predictions I have made to date.....GOLD is GOING UP!!!!

That's what I would have thought.

[outspoken]

Whilst I agree in principal Dan, you know as well as I do that it's not quite as simple as that.

It is widely accepted that intervention is one of the reasons why Gold hasn't skyrocketed already. If Gold manages to break these shackles then, yes, I think you're right. But whilst those that control the money also own most of the Gold, they make the rules.