The boom has turned to bust

[muppet]

The boom has turned to bust
5:00AM Sunday June 15, 2008
By Jacqueline Smith
Some of Auckland's suburbs, such as Mt Roskill, are experiencing downturns in property prices.

The property downturn is not a blip and Auckland's top suburbs are suffering, with the desirable suburbs of Kohimarama, Greenlane, Westmere, Point Chevalier and Epsom declining more than any other.

The best-performing suburbs in Auckland are Ellerslie, Mt Wellington, St Johns, Otahuhu and Waiheke Island, according to information released to the Herald on Sunday.

But sales are so low across the board that it is inaccurate to judge trends by median sale prices. Some suburbs had fewer than 10 sales in the past quarter.

The Quotable Value analysis uses three levels to read data - median sales price, average sales price and the number of sales from the end of the past quarter until now.

Kohimarama median and average sales prices have fallen by more than $300,000 and Epsom prices have fallen by more than $100,000. Greenlane prices have declined by more than $150,000 and Pt Chevalier prices have decreased by about $100,000.

But the Kohimarama and Epsom declines in average and median sales prices reflect cheaper properties selling rather than a major fall in value, says QV's Jonno Ingerson.

The downturn is also hitting provincial areas across the North Island and the property market has already gone backwards in Gisborne, New Plymouth and Palmerston North. Other towns are expected to follow.

Property investor Kieran Trass, of suburbwatch.co.nz, says the real estate industry needs to stop waving around the median house-price figures and accept the market is crashing.

Read more at .........

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/story.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10516401&pnum=0

[Contrail]

It's good someone voices the opinion most of us are thinking and can provide some figures to back things up.

Things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. People have been holding out for higher prices for too long.

ie. the couple on moneyman last week

[Davo36]

I liked the last part where Kieran talks about the property market being like a grieving process where everyone has to go through the denial, blame and then acceptance phases. It's just so on the mark.

David

[kieran]

Shame about the misquoted figures...

My statement was that you need $150k income to get a mortgage for the average property priced at $530k assuming you put in a $53k deposit, not $350k with 35k deposit.

Think they got the 5 and the 3 around the wrong way!

And yes its true on Friday made the decision to withdraw from making any further statements to the media about the market for quite some time, although there are still some 'residual' articles with the media.

[Badger]

The mainstream media what a joke!

If ya want to be mislead and loose alot of coin the media turkeys are just the ticket along with the moron economists and dead beat politicians.

Allan Bollard has been telling you all for months years whats comming down the pipeline in not so many words!

Nobody is listening! Oh perhaps a few more are starting to take notice!

Times up for paper inflated fluff and nonsense pyramid schemes created from fresh air!

[Austrokiwi]

I remember once talking to a friend Who had been on a peace keeping mission in Somalia............. a week before I had seen on TV a supposed gun battle with heaps of black smoke. Well My friend was there when the battle was filmed nothing was happening and the media desperate for a story found someone burning some tires the whizzed round to the other side of a building did their dissimulated presentation with the building and smoke in the background. They actually didn't state there was a fight they just inferred it and let their lying pictures do the rest!!!

I saw worse behaviour in UNPROFOR from the media.

As for NZ buusiness reporters............... they deserve entertainment awards ( opps hasn't paul holmes won a few?)........... I assume they belong to the New Zealand equivalent of the actors Guild! Reporting accurately is optional

[Commercial Dan]

Does not matter about the figures, there is a severe downturn coming, the sharemarket is about to absolutely burst open in the US!

I predicted all this a year ago and I have been spot on, so who is laughing now eh!!!!!

Ron Fong, Poooomba and a few other posters that said it was not possible for the market to drop and that I was scaremongering back in May last year...pity you never went through 87 or bothered to study it and read about it, then you would have seen this coming.

[Green Fish]

Commercial Dan: I remember post-Oct 87 very well. But if you look at the historical graphs, it's a non-event. Whereas the big 2000-2006 boom sticks out like a sore thumb. So I think that people should hold off for at least a year, just to see how this thing might play out.

[exnzpat]

...And yes its true on Friday made the decision to withdraw from making any further statements to the media about the market for quite some time, although there are still some 'residual' articles with the media...

Three men are walking along the train tracks. As they walk they discover that the bridge has collapsed.

The first man says: “It is not our business. I don’t want to get involved.”

The second and third men decide that they need to inform the appropriate authorities.

They leave the first man to his walk and run up the train tracks to the Station. They see that a train is being boarded and readied for departure. Quickly, they find the Station Master and tell him what they discovered.

The Station Master has a quick conference with some of his employees and turns back to the two men and says: “Thank you for the information we will take it into consideration.”

“What?” says the second man angrily “you need to do something!”

“If I interfere with the trains departure then I would have to give all my passengers their money back,” explains the Station Master.

Some very large employees of the Station Master move towards the second man – their intent is clearly one of intimidation. The second man is frightened away and goes about his own business.

This leaves the third man, who, while intimidated and harried by the Station Masters employees, leaps onto the train platform and tells the passengers to get off the train. He tells them the very real fact that the bridge is down, and that to ride this train could mean their very own destruction.

The Station Master and his employees calm down the situation by explaining that the third man is clearly a foolish man who has no real knowledge of trains and therefore is simply just a scaremonger and nothing more.



Now, the question, which I pose to all of you, not just Kieran: Which man are you? 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

[Keys]

Now, the question, which I pose to all of you, not just Kieran: Which man are you? 1st, 2nd or 3rd.

Out there sabotaging the train.

[muppet]

You could inform OSH of the problem.

[essence]

Put up a barrier

Put up a barrier well before the wrecked bridge. This will make the train stop, the train driver and conductors et al will have to get out and remove the barrier. The passengers can get out at this time and walk. It'll be difficult and some will fall and hurt their knees and dirty their clothes, but at least they will be alive to catch another train.

The delay gives me enough time to talk to the Supervisor and tell him about the bridge.

If they remove the barrier and decide to continue, there is no much more I can do. I have given them the opportunity to be pro-active and to stop a disaster.

One can only do so much for other people, until the point is reached when they have to take some action themselves. If they choose not to do so, they must bear the consequences of those actions.

[chook]

you should be writing suspense novels EXNZ

[revdev]

How about the fourth guy?....selling cakes and biscuits from his trolley, knowing full well they won't have time to finish them...

G

[exnzpat]

Transcript from the Enquiry into the Train Crash at the collapsed bridge, just prior to entry into the City of El Dorado


Judge: “Madame Foreman do you have a verdict?”

Jury Foreman: “We do your Honor”

Judge: “Proceed”

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the 1st Man: we find him not guilty of any criminal act, moral perhaps, but that is beyond the purview of this court.”

Judge: “Hmmm… continue.”

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the 2nd Man: we find him not guilty of any criminal act. The second man can, perhaps, look at himself in the mirror without revulsion.”

Judge: “Thank you, next”

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the 3rd Man: we find him not guilty of any criminal act. The third man acted with bravery and did all he could to save life and limb. He is to be commended for his actions.”

Judge: “I agree wholeheartedly.” The judge nodding approvingly at the 3rd man seated at the defense table.

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the Station Master: we find him not guilty of any criminal act. The Station Master acted in accordance with company procedures. His duties entailed an on-time departure, a safe and comfortable boarding environment and the safety of his own employees. The Station Masters responsibility to the passengers ended with the boarding procedure.

Judge: “I see….” Raising his eyebrows, “continue”

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the Station Masters Employees: we find them not guilty of any criminal act. The employees acted at the direction of their superior, the Station Master. The impression expressed by the second man that they (the employees) were intimidating him was of entirely of his own making. With consideration to the third man, they did not roughhouse him in any way, and therefore have committed no crime.

Judge: “Thank you... please go on”

Jury Foreman: “In the case of the Ticket Sellers: we find them not guilty of any criminal act. Their business with the passengers and the trains’ departure ended at the conclusion of that initial transaction.

Judge: “Hmmm…” not convinced. “Surely, Madam Foreman, someone must be guilty of something? What about the Fourth Man? The man found at the scene of the wreck by rescue workers. The Fourth Man was digging through the wallets of the dead, removing gold teeth with pliers, pulling wedding bands from the dead and dying fingers of the victims. Surely, he of all people is guilty of some crime?”

Jury Foreman: “No your Honor, In the case of the Fourth Man: we find him not guilty of any criminal act. It appears that the Fourth Man had a prior relationship to the passengers. It was he, the Fourth Man, who loaned the passengers the money to purchase their tickets to ride the train in the first place. The Fourth Man is guilty of no crime because he was simply attempting to salvage what he could from what he was owed -- as is his right under the law.

Judge: “I see…” he said patting his breast pocket, feeling his own ticket safely tucked away there. It gave him a sense of pride and satisfaction that he could not fully explain. Yes, the jury had found correctly – we need the Fourth Man, Hell; he needed the Fourth Man. Without the Fourth Man, who could ever afford the price of a ticket on the next train to El Dorado?

“Have you found anyone guilty in this disaster?”


Jury Foreman: “Oh, yes your Honor we have: we find the passengers themselves guilty. In a free society the passengers willingly borrowed money for their tickets, purchased their tickets, and then boarded the train. They did so, even though an actual eyewitness (the Third Man) to the collapsed bridge on the track ahead showed up at the Station, prior to boarding the train, and warned them of the danger. The passengers made a choice. Some got off the train but most stayed. The choice was their own and therefore they have only themselves to blame.”

Judge: “Thank you Madam Foreman. Your verdict has been entered into record. I think we are done here.” Yes, he thought, thinking of the riches to be found in El Dorado, those passengers simply boarded the wrong train – but that won’t happen to me – I’m much to clever for that.

Sound of gavel striking desk