Kieran Trass on Campbell Live this Monday 7pm TV3

[kieran]

I have been invited by John Campbell to feature again on his show to discuss a few key questions about property for those who may be interested in watching it.

Tune in to TV3 7pm Monday 14th August.

[Josko]

Hi Kieran,

Did I hear the word, you "suspect" the next boom won't be for a long time. I would have thought you would have been more confident in your supposition than to use that word, or was it just the pressure of the moment?

Regards,

[Paul34]

What was discussed

I missed the show.

What were the points that were raised?

[Josko]

Campbell raised the issue of 50 Year mortgages and the Welcome Home Loan scheme.

Main points were that you could not afford to buy properties in the major cities with the WHL and that the saving on mortgage repayment fro 50 Year mortgages did not warrant the extra interest paid on the term of the mortgage. Though an example was given that if you borrowed 300k over fifty years the value of the house in 50 years would be approx 4 million so 300k mortgage would not be significant.

Kieran Trass was introduced with his to be released book on Hot Spots, not much given away in the interview. Interestingly Kieran thinks that some areas have been pushed up too high by investors, did not mention which areas, he did give an example that Mt Wellington was a hotspot. I guess you have to buy the book to find out more, which I will be doing.

[RonHoyFong]

[COLOR=black]Kieran Trass was introduced with his to be released book on Hot Spots, not much given away in the interview. Interestingly Kieran thinks that some areas have been pushed up too high by investors, did not mention which areas, he did give an example that Mt Wellington was a hotspot...

Oh no. Mt Wellington was a Hot Spot!

(When did it stop being a Hot spot)

Now its all out in the open!

Cheers Ron

[whitt]

Mt Wellington was a Hot Spot!
(When did it stop being a Hot spot?)

Was past tense as compared to is which is present. Not sure if this was the context implied.


Kieran also mentioned that for a area to become a hotspot that it will need more than one driver to occur. Sylvia park on its own is not enough to cause a hotspot but combined with other drivers a hotspot was created.
Similar to the property cycle really, immigration is only one driver needed.

My 2 cents:As for Mt Welly, Yes It has had good growth. But continued strong growth is debatable.

[kieran]

Did I hear the word, you "suspect" the next boom won't be for a long time. I would have thought you would have been more confident in your supposition than to use that word, or was it just the pressure of the moment?

Ivi, I use the word 'suspect' because the next boom will be determined by the combination of trends evident in the property cycles "Key Drivers" contributing to the next recovery commencing.
Not even I know when those Key Drivers will 'line up' to create the perfect environment for the next recovery to start but I will certainly see it coming (probably with about 6-12 months notice before it commences!).
The timeframe is not consistent in a cycle although it has been generally 8-10 years for a full cycle historically but that doesn't mean the next cycle will also be that timeframe.

So I said 'suspect' simply because at this point in time I see the classic evidence of the slump. That doesn't mean values stop rising though... (i.e. Slump DOES NOT NECESSARILY MEAN CRASH!). They may well continue to rise in some areas and of course Hot Spots can emerge during a slump (but are more prevelant in a boom). Can't be too specific about the book (under my publishers request - which I respect)

Oh no. Mt Wellington was a Hot Spot! (When did it stop being a Hot spot) Now its all out in the open!

Ron, I do like your sense of humour !

I didn't say it was NO LONGER a Hot Spot but it could have been interpreted that I implied that.

OK, This one is for you Ron... The information I have before me implies that Mt Wellington will continue to experience SHORT TERM growth so may well see another 10% in the next year... BUT in the the MEDIUM TERM the growth rate is set to slow or disappear (how hard it slows and/or how far is not clear yet).

P.S. There are a few other suburbs in Auckland which look like better hot spots right now than Mt Wellington though... Sorry, but I won't be drawn in to any further disclosure at this point as I invest heavily in finding out these answers.

I will be launching a new website in the next few months which will enhance the current hot spots reports subscription service greatly and will reveal all (including the analysis behind the data...) watch this space because it will revolutionise they way many people will decide when and where they should buy, sell or hold property...

As outlined in my new book -
My real estate mantra is not location, location, location but... RESEARCH, RESEARCH, RESEARCH!