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  • Why Kiwis who can fly the coop

    Hi Guys

    Interesting article from The Australian:

    Why Kiwis who can fly the coopBernard Salt
    23jun05

    IT'S not our fault, New Zealand. We Australians can't help it if more than 300,000 of your countrymen preferred living in Australia at the time of the 2001 census, up from 90,000 in 1976.

    We didn't entice them; they came of their own volition. Perhaps they were spellbound by our magnetic personality.
    Perhaps this lot are really Kiwi aesthetes who have been transfixed by the depth of Australian culture. Perhaps they were entranced by the physical beauty of the Australian race?

    Or perhaps it is a deep and an abiding love of the Australian people that holds New Zealanders here in such numbers. Then again, perhaps not.

    I suspect that New Zealanders are here in big numbers because Australia offers the broadest range of jobs within striking distance of their home.

    Some Oz-based Kiwis may also simply prefer to live in cities that offer greater critical mass: Auckland is, after all, only marginally larger than Adelaide; and Australia does have five times the population of New Zealand.

    For decades, young and mostly male New Zealanders have moved to Australia: Russell Crowe, Joh Bjelke Petersen and Derryn Hinch all migrated to Australia as young men.

    This process has left an odd imprint on the Kiwi demographic profile (see New Zealand chart).

    In 1976 there were more New Zealand men than women up to the age of 20; thereafter the men evaporated or, more correctly, emigrated, leaving a surplus of women in that country to the age of 40.

    Men aged 20- and 30-something left New Zealand in the 1970s to do what they called (and still call) their overseas experience, or OE.

    New Zealand is a small and remote nation that benefits from the exposure of its people to larger economies and cultures: Britain is preferred; Australia is closer.

    The problem was, and remains, that the Kiwi OE is a predominantly male affair.

    Also, what starts out as a visit can convert into migration: hopelessly romantic New Zealand men take one look at Australian womanhood, fall head over heels in love, and end up staying a lifetime.

    If more men than women leave New Zealand in their 20s, then issues of gender imbalance complicate life for unpartnered women in the 30-something cohort.

    By 1991 there were 7600 more 30-something women than men in New Zealand.

    If there's not enough blokes for heterosexual partnering, then society's mores shift to incorporate the concept of time-share men.

    Liberal thinking about non-committal sexual relationships must be more advanced in New Zealand than in Australia.

    We should regard the Kiwi as a sort of miner's canary signalling social change.

    Fast-forward to 2004 and the number of New Zealand women exceeded the number of men each year between the ages of 26 and 53; in the 30-something age group alone there were 23,800 fewer men than women.

    In 2004, a 34-year-old heterosexual Kiwi woman had the poorest numeric prospects of any woman under the age of 85 of finding a partner the same age: many men in the 34-year cohort would have left New Zealand in the late 1990s.

    What started out as a modest outflow of mostly male youth in the 1970s has turned into a full on, shaky-island haemorrhage.

    Young New Zealand men have been sucked out of that nation for at least a quarter of a century.

    This has led to the rise of a highly matriarchal society: New Zealand now has a female prime minister, a female governor general and, until recently, a female chief justice.

    Not that there's anything wrong with this arrangement; it is simply very different from Australia, where the gender balance has historically favoured fellas.

    But all New Zealanders should be concerned about that nation's loss of youth.

    Taxpayer dollars nurture and educate locals - from pre-school to university - who are then apt to up-and-off to better opportunities overseas, where they then pay tax.

    How good is this for the host country? It gets the skill and the tax-paying capacity while some sucker in another country forks-out for 25 years of care and education.

    It could be said, my fellow Australians, that New Zealand is being mined by our nation for its human talent, and its young men.

    The reason it is important for Australians to understand this relationship is that I think we could be headed down the same path as New Zealand.

    During the 1990s Australia too began tithing its 30-something men in particular to other, bigger, economies (see Australian chart).

    This brawn-and-brain drain is leaving Australia with more women than men in the 30 and 40-something age group.

    This is an important issue because it signals the role that Australia seems to be fulfilling in the global economy. First, New Zealand and then Australia have evolved as little more than satellites on the edge of the global solar system.

    Gravitational forces exerted by northern-hemisphere economies now suck from Australia our youngest, brightest, most ambitious and perhaps even prettiest to what is perceived to be better life opportunities. (This doesn't bode well for those of us who stay: we must by definition be old, stupid, complacent and ugly.)

    Australia now struggles to recruit health professionals from overseas; in the modern world labour with universal skills flows like water between competing nations.

    But in this global market larger economies may not be as benign as we Australians were to, say, New Zealand, over the past 30 years.

    Australia could be specifically targeted by aggressive economies as a good place from which to pluck young graduates in computer technology, health services, finance and engineering.

    Australia has always thought of itself as the lucky country: our immigration program simply regulates the flow of people wanting - no, yearning - to come here.

    But I think we will increasingly need to develop defensive migration strategies to protect and retain the skilled labour we have nurtured locally.

    This makes good sense on several levels.

    It protects taxpayer investment in youth; shores up the gender balance in the reproductive age group; and strengthens our cultural independence and sense of national identity.

    I think it is fair to say that New Zealand has had to fight especially hard to retain these qualities in the latter decades of the 20th century.

    Australia needs to ensure that globalisation does not lead to the plundering by others of our youth, energy, intellect and men. I think we need to protect against the possible Kiwification of Australia to ensure others do not do to us, what we have done to New Zealand in the past 30 years.

    Bernard Salt is KPMG partner in charge, property advisory services

    [email protected]
    News source:
    http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au...697125,00.html

    Regards
    "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

  • #2
    I returned to NZ late last year after 15 years in the UK and whilst my impressions of NZ in 2005 are overwhelmingly positive, there are some things that concern me and top of the list is immigration and population loss - something that has a direct impact on the property market.

    There can be no more burning issue for our politicians than how to increase the number of taxpayers in coming years as our population ages. The ratio of taxpayers to those who require some kind of benefit (pension, healthcare, etc) will fall alarmingly unless something is done and soon.

    Yet the immigration policy is poor and nothing is being done to stop many of our young, educated and talented NZers leaving the country.

    On the one hand we need to attract immigrants with as few barriers to integration and employment as possible (not simply those with university degrees) whilst giving productive NZers good reasons to stay - probably a low tax regime having the biggest impact.

    My advice to all those that read this is to put this issue to the top of their concerns when deciding who to vote for this year.

    Comment


    • #3
      Hi Edinburgh

      I fully agree with you.

      Without an increasing population, property investing is a dead duck.

      Regards
      "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

      Comment


      • #4
        Totally agree Edinburgh, strange its not more of a hot topic. The current govt is doing jack to keep educated and talented NZers in N.Z.

        Comment


        • #5
          Big rise in Kiwis leaving for Australia

          Big rise in Kiwis leaving for Australia
          22 February 2006
          By SUE ALLEN

          It seems the lure of Australia's hot weather, golden beaches, higher paying jobs and better opportunities remains irresistible to New Zealanders.

          Statistics New Zealand figures issued yesterday, show 22,500 more citizens left New Zealand for Australia than returned last year - up almost 34 per cent on 2004.

          It is the highest net loss to Australia since a net 24,600 left in 2001.

          Overall, New Zealand gained 7000 people more than it lost during 2005, about half the 15,100 gain of 2004.

          National's finance spokesman, John Key, said the number of New Zealanders voting with their feet and moving to Australia was alarming.

          "The Government continues to be in a state of denial about the increasing competitiveness of the Australian economy," he said.

          "Quite clearly the massive tax reductions that (Australian Treasurer) Peter Costello has been signalling in Australia are continuing to attract more and more skilled Kiwis."
          His view was echoed by Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly, who said the latest figures showed how important it was for New Zealand to become more competitive to attract skilled new migrants.

          "People are leaving for Australia because Australia is doing better than us at productivity, and that plays out in things like better infrastructure, higher-paying jobs and better opportunities," he said.

          New Zealand needed to "chase down" Australia and take the lead on productivity to right that balance.

          Labour Immigration Minister David Cunliffe said the movement of people between Australia and New Zealand depended on the relative strength of either economy.

          "The Government is not worried about that data at all. But we are working with a number of programmes to ensure that New Zealand is a winner from net migration flows." Examples of that were the Government's push to encourage qualified expats to return to New Zealand and an increase in the number of skilled migrants, particularly where there were skill shortages.

          Mr Cunliffe said that approach resulted in higher numbers of professionals moving here.

          Yesterday's figures showed professionals recorded the largest net inflow of all groups, with 1500 more architects, engineers, health professionals, nurses, teachers and business, legal and computing experts arriving than leaving.

          However, there was a net loss of 85 technicians and associated professionals, 630 service and sales workers, and 638 plant and machine operators.

          Migration peaked in 2002 when 38,200 more people came to live here than left.

          Westpac senior economist Nick Tuffley said the high number of migrants in 2002 and 2003 drove economic growth through the housing boom and consumer spending. It also provided much needed labour.

          "It's like we had a big tail wind for the economy in 2002 and 2003, but it's gradually been dying away."

          http://www.stuff.co.nz/stuff/0,2106,3580005a11,00.html
          "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

          Comment


          • #6
            Migration dip may cool house prices

            Migration dip may cool house prices
            By NICK CHURCHOUSE - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 19 May 2007

            Net migration is at its lowest level in two years, taking some of the heat out of the demand for housing.

            Statistics New Zealand figures for April showed only 100 more people arrived in New Zealand than left, either long-term or permanently. Many of those leaving were headed to Australia, continuing a long exodus across the Tasman.

            Economists expected the Reserve Bank to be pleased by the slowdown in net migration to 11,200 a year, taking pressure off a limited housing stock getting increasingly expensive. Net migration has been slowing for the past five months.

            In the past 12 months, about 82,000 new migrants arrived in New Zealand, while 71,000 people left permanently - the balance between the two figures is the net migration gain.

            Deutsche Bank economist Darren Gibbs said the Reserve Bank would be encouraged by the fact new immigrants were dropping, which would ease pressure on the housing market.

            House price inflation has been attributed in part to a shortage of good houses, exacerbated by increased demand.

            ANZ bank economists said that, though the Reserve Bank would be comforted by the slowing in migration inflows, it was a double-edged sword as it would not alleviate skill shortages in the economy.

            The net flow across the Tasman in April was up by a third on the same time last year, with 2500 more people leaving for Australia than arriving in New Zealand. The net outflow to Britain was only 300.

            Higher wages in Australia and recent tax cuts painted Australia as the place to be, but economists said it was debatable whether that was the reason for more people leaving New Zealand.

            Mr Gibbs said both countries were doing well, with plenty of jobs and booming economies, but there was no doubt people were paid more in Australia, and tax rates were lower. "The mounting tax wedge can't have hurt that situation."

            Mr Gibbs said the currency was a likely culprit in fewer people wanting to move to New Zealand.

            The cost of transferring foreign currency to New Zealand dollars was the worst it had been for two years.

            "If they wanted to come here and buy a house, now might not be a good time in terms of what you get for your money," he said.

            Applications to come here had been steadily declining in the past year, but overall, the picture of life in New Zealand was a good one, with low unemployment, reasonable wage growth and a positive outlook.

            http://www.stuff.co.nz/4064615a13.html
            "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

            Comment


            • #7
              Hi Guys

              Will emigration accelerate after Dr Cullen's latest budget?

              If so, then,
              will the last person leaving please turn out the light.

              Regards
              Last edited by muppet; 19-05-2007, 12:59 PM. Reason: wrong word
              "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by muppet View Post
                Hi Guys

                Will immigration accelerate after Dr Cullen's latest budget?

                If so, then,
                will the last person leaving please turn out the light.

                Regards
                Um,this is me being pedantic...... emigration - existing the country, immigration - into the country.

                It was the ONLY way I could remember the difference when I was at school!!
                Patience is a virtue.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by essence View Post
                  Um,this is me being pedantic...... emigration - existing the country, immigration - into the country.

                  It was the ONLY way I could remember the difference when I was at school!!
                  Since you're being pedantic.

                  You got it wrong.

                  Muppett was indicating that people were leaving the country and wanted someone to turn out the light.



                  Keys
                  www.3888444.co.nz
                  Facebook Page

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Oh sorry

                    I was being too pedantic obviously!!!

                    If there is nobody here to see whether the light is off or on, why bother turning it off?
                    Patience is a virtue.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Population loss to Australia near 20-yr high

                      Population loss to Australia near 20-yr high
                      1:00PM Monday February 04, 2008

                      New Zealanders are leaving for Australia in droves.

                      The departure of kiwi citizens across the Tasman hit a near two-decade high last year.

                      Figures out today from Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) put the net outflow of permanent and long term (PLT) migrants to Australia at 28,000 in 2007, compared with 20,700 the previous year.

                      That was the highest net outflow to Australia for a December year since 1988, when it was 33,400, SNZ said.

                      The PLT flow to Australia was a big factor in a slowdown in the impact of migration on the New Zealand population last year.

                      The overall 5500 net PLT gain for the year ended December was below the annual average of 11,800 recorded for the December years from 1990-2007, SNZ said.

                      But overall PLT arrivals were down just 200 on the December 2006 year to 82,600, while the 77,100 PLT departures were up 9000.

                      The main source of migrants last year was Britain, which provided 7100 people, although that was down from 10,900 the previous year.

                      For the December month, overall PLT departures exceeded arrivals by 100, compared with an excess of 1000 arrivals over departures in December 2006.

                      The change in the direction of the net flow was mainly due to 900 more New Zealand citizen departures, including 800 more to Australia, and 200 more non-New Zealand citizen departures, SNZ said.

                      Seasonally adjusted, December arrivals were the same as departures, the lowest seasonally adjusted net flow since May 2001.

                      Short-term visitor numbers were also looking shaky, with the 317,300 short-term overseas visitor arrivals to this country in December, 1800 or 1 per cent down on December 2006.

                      Seasonally adjusted, visitor arrivals decreased 1 per cent between November and December.

                      Arrivals in the December quarter were also lower than a year earlier, down 9600 or 1 per cent at 726,000.

                      For the whole of 2007 visitor arrivals were up 44,100 or 2 per cent to 2.47 million.

                      In December, while the number of visitors to this country was declining, the number of New Zealand residents leaving on short-term overseas trips was rising.

                      New Zealand residents departed on 199,700 short-term overseas trips last month, up 9200 or 5 per cent on December 2006.

                      Almost 40 per cent of the increase was due to sea cruises to the Pacific Islands, SNZ said.

                      For the December quarter, resident departures were up 36,800 or 8 per cent to 527,300, while for the year to December they increased 116,400 or 6 per cent to 1.98m.

                      - NZPA

                      http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10490566
                      "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Migration slows to a 170-person trickle

                        Migration slows to a 170-person trickle
                        By JAMES WEIR - The Dominion Post | Saturday, 22 March 2008

                        Net migration to New Zealand has slowed to a trickle as more people head to Australia, adding to the headwinds of higher interest rates pushing house prices down.

                        Statistics New Zealand figures showed a net migration gain of just 170 people in February, seasonally adjusted, up from a gain of 70 people in January.

                        Net arrivals for the past 12 months were 4720, the lowest since 2001, and a big slide from a 13,330 increase the year before.

                        The figures reflected in part a net outflow of almost 30,000 to Australia in the past year, the highest level for almost seven years, and 7400 more than the previous year.

                        Deutsche Bank economists said the weak migration trend added to negative factors already impinging on the weak housing market. Mortgage interest rates rose last month, and further rate rises are expected soon, possibly taking two-year fixed rates above 10 per cent. Banks are also becoming more cautious about lending.

                        Mortgage rates are now about 50 basis points higher than they were when the Reserve Bank last lifted the official cash rate, in the middle of last year to 8.25 per cent.

                        Real Estate Institute figures show the national median price down about 5 per cent since a peak late last year. Deutsche Bank predicts house prices to fall 10 per cent this year.

                        The housing market slowdown would weigh heavily on economic growth this year, with a fall expected in associated spending such as home building, and home-related consumer spending such as furniture and appliances, Deutsche Bank said.

                        http://www.stuff.co.nz/4447652a13.html
                        "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Sweet best thing that could happen.

                          Could be a 20% fall since it was all make believe to start with.

                          Economic Growth is over!

                          Why do they keep promoting this flawed idea?

                          I know why do you?

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            This happens with migration every cycle , 7 or so years ago like the article said was about when we were all panicking because of the migration to Aussie (actually the levels were worse than they are today). It also was the same before that. Yet every time people come out and say look at our immigration, its all over NZ is stuffed.

                            Economic growth may be over for this cycle or a couple of quarters.
                            Last edited by Tucker; 23-03-2008, 09:34 AM.
                            Nigel Turner

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Growth is over and I hope more consumers head to Australia to consume over there.

                              Im definitly not panicking about punters heading out to Aus best thing that can happen.

                              Still havnt shown us where the resources are coming from for more "growth"

                              Comment

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