Alan Bollard Say Ignore Real Estate Industry On the Housing Market

[Steve Netwriter]

I was just listening to Kathryn Ryan on Nine to Noon on Radio New Zealand National.

About 4/5 through.
She started a question with something like "Modest signs of recovery in that market...."

Alan Bollard replied with:

No no that's just straws in the wind, and gets built up, often by estate agents in whose interest it is to do that, but you're going to get some pockets of positive news, but our view is you would be very unwise to rely much on that. House prices have come off 10% and they have another 10% to go.

http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon

You can listen to the interview here:

http://podcast.radionz.co.nz/ntn/ntn-20090313-0910-RBNZ_on_Official_cash_reserve_announcement-048.mp3

[dandan]

He could be refering to his place in Central Terrace??

[Steve Netwriter]

Better to have a zero on a piece of paper !!!

I missed the last bit !!!!!

Alan Bollard:

Don't get confused between the physical solidness of bricks and mortar and financial solidness. There is nothing financially solid about bricks and mortar. They can be just as bad or worse investment as anything else.

Kathryn: Better than a piece of paper with zero on it?

Alan Bollard:

Well if you are owing money on, yes it would be much better to have a zero on a piece of paper.

[HelenB]

What do you think - will teh OCR go as low as 2.0%, and therefore will floating rates dip blow 6%?

Will 5 year fixed rates go as low as 5.5% in the short term future?

[Gatekeeper]

What do you think - will teh OCR go as low as 2.0%, and therefore will floating rates dip blow 6%?

Will 5 year fixed rates go as low as 5.5% in the short term future?

No, we'll be inflation fighting in the next round

[Steve Netwriter]

IMO the economic bubble has been blown up to an extreme level, and this makes the balancing act (assuming they actually have any control now), almost impossible.
Thus the only likely outcomes are:
1. Total collapse
2. High to hyper inflation.

With the former, the question of interest rates may be irrelevant.
With the latter, interest rates will have to go VERY high, and the result will likely be a collapse.

[nzfrazer]

Will 5 year fixed rates go as low as 5.5% in the short term future?

I would say no and if you are looking to fix long term, do it sooner rather than later.

[Green Fish]

If the banks offer 5.5% for 5 years, it would be classic "bait advertising": Hardly any loan applications will be approved - "but we can offer you that same rate for 18 months."

[Baron Silas Greenback]

IMO the economic bubble has been blown up to an extreme level, and this makes the balancing act (assuming they actually have any control now), almost impossible.
Thus the only likely outcomes are:
1. Total collapse
2. High to hyper inflation.

With the former, the question of interest rates may be irrelevant.
With the latter, interest rates will have to go VERY high, and the result will likely be a collapse.

High to hyper inflation? Well you are leaving yourself a big scale there. High inflation is a completely different ball game to hyperinflation.

You predicting hyperinflation or not?

[Green Fish]

I don't know how one defines "hyperinflation", but I'm defintely hoping for it.

The alternative is deflation, which is economic death.

[outspoken]

No, Greenfish, you don't want hyperinflation....think Zimbabwe, only you'll be eating grass here. Then you'll really need your guns and amo.

High inflation we have experienced before and that's what I'm picking, only, as Badger says, into commodities, not housing or rent or wages <==That is the travesty.

[Green Fish]

Then it's 1930s-style deflation, outspoken.

[outspoken]

no, it's not, but I haven't got time to go into it right now, have a wedding to go to....yay some free booze!

Hold that thought. lol

[Baron Silas Greenback]

I don't know how one defines "hyperinflation", but I'm defintely hoping for it.

The alternative is deflation, which is economic death.

I would rather have deflation than hyperinflation.

I dont think people actually know what hyperinflation is. They are just so used to scare mongerers throwing the term around that they use it incorrectly.

I put a link into what hyoerinflation was in the other thread about inflation.

[Steve Netwriter]

For once Baron I slightly agree with you.
I'm not sure anyone, even those who have studied it, really appreciate how bad things can get. I thin kit is difficult to impossible to imagine what life can be like when sat in your comfy chair.

This is what a collapse can look like:



It may seem remote from here:



But it ain't funny when you need to buy food:



Anyone who thinks it cannot happen to them should learn from history. This is a chart of human history and the rise and fall of many civilisations: