Hi Guys
Olly's has released his latest newsletter.
Read the rest here:
Regards
Olly's has released his latest newsletter.
"When Fools Rush In"
Olly Newland's Column, August 2008
We are now about six months into the real property downturn. Until last December there was still a positive note -- despite the collapse of several finance companies and with other hints of worse to come.
Now there are those who say 'the worst is over' and that we can look forward to a more stable market and the resuming of the property bubble.
I do not believe that at all. Some optimists and their advisors are merely seeing a false dawn, in my view, and there is much more pain to come.
Since the beginning of the year, many more local finance companies have collapsed or shut their doors, and overseas the financial markets are still deep in trouble.
Sooner or later there will be a real crisis, with emergency measures to be taken -- and that will be the end of the beginning.
It often takes a crisis to solve a crisis.
Judging from previous experience, I'd say we are probably about one-third of the way through the problem, with much more unpleasantness to come, but (and this is an important distinction) only for a relatively FEW.
Learning from the past
During the 1987-1991 meltdown down both locally and internationally I was continually amazed to see that the restaurants were full, properties were still sold for good prices, people continued to go on expensive overseas trips and buy the finest wines.
This taught me that a recession (for that is officially what we are in) really only affects a small number of people. For many, it is business as usual.
While 10% of the population may be suffering in the recession, 90% ARE NOT.
Now all this is good news indeed for many property owners and I, for one, am more optimistic than ever. Here's why.
If we are one-third of the way through with two-thirds to go:
It means that the real upturn (or least a stable market) will likely arrive towards the end of next year, 2009. Hence, most of us can while away the the rest of recession in relative comfort until then.
It means that investors can now drive bargains that were unthinkable to many 12 months ago. Take advantage of this while you can.
It means that fuel prices should steadily fall (not all the way back, but enough to take the hurt away), interest rates should drop (cheers!) and the banks will relax their po-faced attitude of today and be more realistic tomorrow.
All we have to do is survive for the next 18 months or so, gather up real bargains in the meantime, and get ready for the better times ahead.
Olly Newland's Column, August 2008
We are now about six months into the real property downturn. Until last December there was still a positive note -- despite the collapse of several finance companies and with other hints of worse to come.
Now there are those who say 'the worst is over' and that we can look forward to a more stable market and the resuming of the property bubble.
I do not believe that at all. Some optimists and their advisors are merely seeing a false dawn, in my view, and there is much more pain to come.
Since the beginning of the year, many more local finance companies have collapsed or shut their doors, and overseas the financial markets are still deep in trouble.
Sooner or later there will be a real crisis, with emergency measures to be taken -- and that will be the end of the beginning.
It often takes a crisis to solve a crisis.
Judging from previous experience, I'd say we are probably about one-third of the way through the problem, with much more unpleasantness to come, but (and this is an important distinction) only for a relatively FEW.
Learning from the past
During the 1987-1991 meltdown down both locally and internationally I was continually amazed to see that the restaurants were full, properties were still sold for good prices, people continued to go on expensive overseas trips and buy the finest wines.
This taught me that a recession (for that is officially what we are in) really only affects a small number of people. For many, it is business as usual.
While 10% of the population may be suffering in the recession, 90% ARE NOT.
Now all this is good news indeed for many property owners and I, for one, am more optimistic than ever. Here's why.
If we are one-third of the way through with two-thirds to go:
It means that the real upturn (or least a stable market) will likely arrive towards the end of next year, 2009. Hence, most of us can while away the the rest of recession in relative comfort until then.
It means that investors can now drive bargains that were unthinkable to many 12 months ago. Take advantage of this while you can.
It means that fuel prices should steadily fall (not all the way back, but enough to take the hurt away), interest rates should drop (cheers!) and the banks will relax their po-faced attitude of today and be more realistic tomorrow.
All we have to do is survive for the next 18 months or so, gather up real bargains in the meantime, and get ready for the better times ahead.
Regards
Did you seek proper qualified advice before selling?
Comment