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  • #76
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...7/cnfed117.xml

    Fed steps in to quell credit fears
    By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
    Last Updated: 2:43am BST 17/08/2007

    The US Federal Reserve has stepped in behind the scenes to avoid a disastrous meltdown across global markets, relaxing rules to let borrowers use distressed debt as collateral for raising emergency funds and quietly slashing the one-month lending rate to 4pc.

    South Korea's Kospi index was down 6.9pc, with contagion spreading to markets all around the globe

    The moves came as the Fed revealed that outstanding commercial paper in the debt markets had plummeted by $91.1bn (£46bn) over the past week, a clear sign that borrowers have been unable to roll over short-term debts. Instead they have had to stump up hard cash on a huge scale to meet a cascade of deadlines, forcing them to liquidate holdings across the board.

    The $2,200bn market for asset-backed commercial paper (ABCP) has emerged as the powder keg in the fast spreading crisis, which has now moved far beyond US sub-prime debt. Goldman Sachs said rates for this paper had suddenly jumped 60 basis points, if credit was available at all.

    This short-term debt is used to fund long-term investments, creating a maturity mismatch that has now turned deadly. Banking sources said the Fed quietly softened its rules yesterday to let banks use ABCP loans as collateral, a move that effectively offers a government floor - until it starts trading again.

    The Fed move, and a deal by Canadian banks to unfreeze Toronto's credit markets, helped calm the panic after the worst one-day fall on global bourses since the dotcom bust. The Dow plunged 343 points in early trading, while Japan's Nikkei fell to the lowest level in almost a year as the shares of exporters plummeted on the surging yen and fears of a US recession.

    South Korea's Kospi index was down 6.9pc, with contagion spreading to almost every corner of the globe. Turkey was pummelled as the lira fell 4pc and Istanbul bourse crashed 8pc. The Brazilian and Mexican currencies began to buckle after holding up well at the start of the crisis, each falling 4pc.

    Funds facing a wave of redemptions stepped up the pace of firesale liquidations yesterday. The brutal surge in the yen and swiss franc added to the mayhem, forcing speculators with some $200bn in 'carry trade' contracts to cover more positions.

    "The markets are discounting Armageddon," said Tim Bond, a strategist at Barclays Capital.

    "The sub-prime losses have been spread through the system in such a way that nobody knows who's got what, and where the losses are, so the safest thing is not to lend to anybody. The credit markets are not functioning at all. Central banks want to make sure those responsible are punished, but it's fine line doing this without destroying parts of the system," he said.

    Federal Reserve governor William Poole said America was now facing a "sort of credit crunch" but insisted it that it had not yet hit the shopping malls, "No one has called up and said the sky is falling. It is premature to say this upset is changing the course of the economy in any fundamental way," he said.

    Mr Poole silenced rumours of an emergency rate before the next Fed meeting in September, insisting that it would take a "calamity" to force a change in policy.

    Despite the tough words, the Fed has quietly cut the rate on four-week Treasury Bills to 4pc.
    Find The Trend Whose Premise Is False - Then Bet Against It

    Comment


    • #77
      I sure am glad I do not have a loan with Citi bank anymore. They sold to AMP who in turn sold to GE. Each time these banks sold they changed the rules and terms of my loan. Like the term of the loan and how much each transaction would cost. The last one was going to cost me $150 each draw down.
      It appears to me that the super big boys just make up the rules and contracts to suit themselves and step all over the little guys who do the real work.
      I see Sentinal is apparently got some problems. They are big in NZ with reverse mortgages. So thinking out side of the square and getting 3 out of 1+1 I wonder how long it will be before there is a major crises in that market. Old people are the main people who have taken out reverse mortgages so they can release the equity in their family home. Like they can go on an overseas trip, buy a new car, and live a better life.
      Just like my unhappy experience with the American banks I wonder if they will start calling up the mortgages demanding the old folks sell up so the bank can have their money back.
      Just a wild thought.
      I would not touch those sorts of loans with a proverbial 40 foot barge pole.
      Last edited by Glenn; 18-08-2007, 02:29 PM. Reason: spelling

      Comment


      • #78
        These are very interesting times. The note by GK is so true:

        Talk about socialism for the rich, capitalism for the poor!!

        If credit is now reduced while inflation climbs this is going to create far greater inequity than we see now. This is very much now a creation of have and have nots for those with the asset and cash to sit on the fence and watch this unfold. The middle class will feel this squeeze big and proper while those who could have survived before just, are now thrown out of the economy as a by product of being given sub loans.

        Make no mistake those lending on sub primes knew there would be blood but did not expect it to be this wide spread. They factored in large defaults just not large enough for what has happened. The point is they knew they would cause pain for set individuals but desired to profit from it. They gives you some idea of their thinking.

        My interest is in NZ. We are now pushed to absoulte max employment. Figures out this week show us down to 3.6. And how has this resulted in gains in productivity....A continuelly low trend of 1% pa!

        My message is the same. Until we see growth in productivity reality has not changed. Without that migration will be a problem not a solution. Dairy is looking good so perhaps a migration policy for farmers. I hear there is a few leaving Zimbawae at the momment - which by the way is a good place to look if you believe that the way to make money is inflation, as so many have in the last asset bubble.

        We are leaving in la-la land. Everything is borrowing, no production and as for this migration boom that will be a tuis add!

        If national get in and we get rid of inefficienies in govt and tighten welfare what will that do to the flow of money in the economy? The alternative is we continue down the current path of half truths.

        The question we need to ask is that given the 'growth!' over the last few years and the fact that this is as good as it gets, what is possibly next??

        Comment


        • #79
          Hi Guys

          Is this weekend halftime in the global stock market game or is there more yet to come?

          The score at the moment is as follows(figures from Saturday's NZ Herald Business Section)

          Stock markets
          last 30 days Since Dec 21 2006
          NZ -7.3% -2.4%
          New York - 8.3% +3.1%
          Hong Kong -10.3% +3.5%
          Australia -11.0% +1.2%
          Tokyo -11.4% -6.2%
          London -12.0% -5.8%

          Currencies
          NZ$ v Yen -21.2% -9.4%
          NZ$ v US$ -14.9% -4.4%
          NZ$ v Aust% -5.7% -3.8%

          Appears that the biggest loser has been the New Zealand Dollar.

          Regards
          "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

          Comment


          • #80
            Originally posted by muppet View Post
            Hi Guys

            Is this weekend halftime in the global stock market game or is there more yet to come?

            The score at the moment is as follows(figures from Saturday's NZ Herald Business Section)

            Stock markets
            last 30 days Since Dec 21 2006
            NZ -7.3% -2.4%
            New York - 8.3% +3.1%
            Hong Kong -10.3% +3.5%
            Australia -11.0% +1.2%
            Tokyo -11.4% -6.2%
            London -12.0% -5.8%

            Currencies
            NZ$ v Yen -21.2% -9.4%
            NZ$ v US$ -14.9% -4.4%
            NZ$ v Aust% -5.7% -3.8%

            Appears that the biggest loser has been the New Zealand Dollar.

            Regards
            Yup, there is more to come, even with the Fed loosening rates last night, this could lead to a further mess. What worries me is the question of 'do the Fed think things are going to get worse', or 'do they know more that we don't know about'. More money floating around to lose possibly? Any thoughts?

            The next week will be interesting, particularly Monday when 2 Billion dollars of Uradashis are expiring.

            The $NZ recovered a little last night to 69.55 US cents but we have not seen the last of all this yet. It is very possible for a credit crunch to hit home here soon...
            Last edited by Commercial Dan; 18-08-2007, 03:12 PM.

            Comment


            • #81
              Interesting info on Fed today in Wall St Jnl

              Economists React: ‘Lifting the Wizard’s Curtain’

              Economists weigh in on the Fed’s surprise decision to cut its discount rate to 5.75%, while leaving the more important federal funds rate unchanged.
              At the risk of lifting the wizard’s curtain and ruining this gesture, I need to point out that a cut in the discount rate is not an ease, and in fact from the standpoint of mechanics is barely relevant, as borrowing at the window was minimal through Wednesday. The Fed is no doubt hoping to capitalize on the past. Prior to 2003, when the discount rate was lower than the funds rate, cutting the discount rate was the most powerful tool in the monetary policy toolbelt. Indeed, prior to 1994, when the Fed began announcing changes in the funds rate target, a discount rate move was the ONLY move that was explicitly announced. Many market participants will think of the discount rate cut in those terms, which is not the correct way to consider it. Instead, this should be thought of as another (indeed, probably the last) intermediate step short of an ease. –Stephen Stanley, RBS Greenwich Capital
              [The Fed] cut a symbolic rate that no one uses and the stock market is predicted to have its biggest up-day in history. This underscores how psychological this selloff has been. Sometimes it is better to make statements than to actually do anything. –Bianco Research
              The Fed’s discount rate cut this morning was a meaningless gesture. The discount rate was at one time the means by which the Fed set policy, but those days are long gone. Today it is little more than an emergency funding mechanism for banks that due to weakened condition, do not have access to the Fed Funds market, which by the way traded at 5% last night. So the discount rate “cut” keeps the discount window .75% above the current market. Big freaking deal, huh? … All in all, the Fed’s action this morning seems like a mean, stupid, and futile gesture, worthy of Animal House for its humor and theatrical impact. –Lee Adler, Wall Street Examiner
              They took a three-pronged approach to provide as much psychological impact as possible [through a statement on growth, changing the discount rate and softening its stance on intermeeting action]. Without backing away from the principles they’ve outlined, they want to show as much support as possible. –Lou Crandall, Wrightson Associates
              We can only speculate about this, but the decision to move the primary discount rate rather than the Fed funds rate may indicate that the Fed anticipates some institutional failure as soon as today, probably not a bank, but rather an institution that has substantial bank liabilities that may not be able to clear. Markets should not be calmed by this tactic. Unlike the Fed funds rate — which affects all banks’ cost of funds — a discount rate cut only lowers the cost of emergency borrowing by institutions in distress. This move is not going to provide any relief to the overall economy. However, we believe that the Fed’s action and statement today raise the odds of a reduction in the Fed funds rate at the September FOMC meeting, or perhaps even before.. –High Frequency Economics

              Comment


              • #82
                Hi Guys

                Stock market at present is up about 69 points.

                Also up against the US dollar but down against the Aust dollar.

                But a long way to go yet, today.

                Regards
                "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

                Comment


                • #83
                  Originally posted by muppet View Post
                  Hi Guys

                  Stock market at present is up about 69 points.

                  Also up against the US dollar but down against the Aust dollar.

                  But a long way to go yet, today.

                  Regards
                  Yes, a long way to go. There will be big volatility again this week, of particular interest will be the 2.5 billion worth of Uradashis due to expire today.

                  Could have a big downward effect on the $kiwi.

                  Comment


                  • #84
                    ShareChat News: Parent company of Nathan Finance declares itself insolvent


                    VTL Group Limited Intra-day 3 month 1 year 2 year

                    Current Quote:
                    VTL $0.70 0.00 (quotes delayed 20 minutes)
                    Price when article published: $0.70
                    By NZPA
                    Monday 20th August 2007


                    The Stock Exchange has suspended trading in VTL Group Limited shares, as the finance company has collapsed.
                    VTL Group, the parent company of Nathan Finance, has told the stock exchange it is insolvent.
                    The Securities Commission is investigating.
                    VTL directors were to meet the Companies Office today, the stock exchange said in a statement.
                    "NZXR will be seeking further information from the company to be released to the market," the exchange said.
                    The collapse followed finance company Bridgecorp last month being put into receivership, after defaulting on repayments of some term investments due to investors.
                    In total about 18,000 investors and $500 million in investments were caught up in that collapse.
                    Nathans Finance NZ Limited is a wholly-owned subsidiary of VTL. On Saturday, the Registrar of Companies gave notice to Nathans that it was to:
                    * not remove from New Zealand, transfer, charge, or otherwise deal with its property or funds without the approval of the registrar; * place in a trust account any money received for investment.

                    Comment


                    • #85
                      HI CD

                      Sounds to me that some of our esteemed fianancial advisors who recommend to mums and dads which financial firms they should invest in are as .......... as some of the invest in property advisers are.

                      Regards
                      "There's one way to find out if a man is honest-ask him. If he says 'yes,' you know he is a crook." Groucho Marx

                      Comment


                      • #86
                        Originally posted by muppet View Post
                        HI CD

                        Sounds to me that some of our esteemed fianancial advisors who recommend to mums and dads which financial firms they should invest in are as .......... as some of the invest in property advisers are.

                        Regards
                        Yup, they sure are.

                        Comment


                        • #87
                          More Coming

                          My sources tell me that there will be some others going down shortly. This is bad news. Investors in property need finance co's for mortgages, special deals whatever.
                          This is serious stuff. It is just what we don't need what with all the other c***p going on internationally.
                          Olly.
                          OllyN [email protected]
                          Independent Property Consultant
                          Residential and Commercial Solutions

                          Comment


                          • #88
                            Originally posted by OllyN View Post
                            My sources tell me that there will be some others going down shortly. This is bad news. Investors in property need finance co's for mortgages, special deals whatever.
                            This is serious stuff. It is just what we don't need what with all the other c***p going on internationally.
                            Olly.
                            This is very very serious.

                            Could someone shed some light on refinancing and refixing. Has anyone in the past ever experienced not being able to refix a mortgage with their current lender when values have dropped in the past?

                            Is it possible for their lender to say 'no' if they deem them as too risky now?

                            Comment


                            • #89
                              Commercial Dan wrote:
                              This is very very serious.

                              Could someone shed some light on refinancing and refixing. Has anyone in the past ever experienced not being able to refix a mortgage with their current lender when values have dropped in the past?
                              In the late 80's and early 90's I had a loan with Allied Mortgage Guarantee, they had been a good source of interest only finance for investors.

                              It was about 1991/1992 I received a letter stating they couldnt roll the loan over because they werent in existence any more! I have a feeling they didnt go bust but the parent company just decided to reduce their exposure to that particular market (wind down Allied Mortgage Guarantee). Anyway I was requested to refinance by a particular date; that wasnt a problem due to the LVR being at ~60%.

                              The property value had dropped significantly but I was in a position to reduce principle by a large amount....the new lender liked that!

                              A friend in ~1999 was doing some refinancing and was turned down by the majority of his lenders. It went down to the wire a bit.....BNZ Investment Management had a meeting with him and agreed to refinance.
                              This investors situation had changed slightly with his income dropping (sold a family cash flow business) and hence his ex lenders reviewed their exposure. These existing lenders were the ones throwing finance at him 2 or 3 years previous.

                              Comment


                              • #90
                                Looks like the Bonds are being rolled over no problem

                                Latest breaking news articles, photos, video, blogs, reviews, analysis, opinion and reader comment from New Zealand and around the World - NZ Herald

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