Interest Rates

[Gatekeeper]

There we go......

RBNZ has raised cash rate by .25 points, now 5.5%.

Its a bit of a gamble when the USD could drop again (more likely IMHO),
leaving us with a high NZD and slowing exports.
I can see rates going up steeply toward next year if not sooner.

[orion]

I can see rates going up steeply toward next year if not sooner.

Really, in which direction do you need to look in order to see this?

Regards
Graeme Fowler

[Gatekeeper]

North-East & North-West

[muppet]

Hi Guys

Westapac first out of the blocks. Floating rate now 7.75% heading in a northerly direction.

Regards

[Gatekeeper]

China has put up its cash rates .5% today , its becoming a right little round robin.

Heres someone who also thinks we should be looking North and northwest for guidance (except that hes in Oz, so the bearings are slightly different to mine).

All right, why do racing cars have brakes?
By Terry McCrann
May 1, 2004

http://finance.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,4057,9436234%255E521,00.html

snip
<<At the start of my own perambulations, the most striking example were those investors who piled into Poseidon shares at $275 - precisely because they declined to buy at $250. While more recently of course, we saw the dotcom boom in all its, ahem, glory.

The second is the almost wilful insistence that the Reserve Bank operate monetary policy to deliver higher interest rates. It's almost as if investors and business demand that Ian Macfarlane & Co give us some more of those 18 per cent rates we had back in 1990.

It's important to emphasise that such a "demand" does not spring from un-enlightened self-interest; that of the investor with a big pile of cash and not in an over-priced, negatively geared new apartment. This "demand" manifests itself every time the Reserve moves interest rates up; reflecting a monumental stupidity that the surest way to get, if not 18 per cent rates, certainly significant higher rates, is to try to keep them artificially low.

The two streams joined perfectly, if not exactly beautifully, in the reaction to the unquestionably good news out of China and the US mid-week.

From our north, that the Chinese were finally going to take steps to haul back unsustainable growth in their booming economy; from our northwest, unmistakable evidence that the two-year period of extraordinarily low US interest rates was definitely coming to an end.

The only question now is the timing and the extent of the coming rate increases. >>

Worth a read.

Cheers.

[muppet]

Hi Guys

Westpac at it again. Short term fixed rates are up for 6mths, 1 yr and 2 yr terms.

The rest haven't followed Westpac on the floating rates yet.

Westpac still leading by 7.75% to 7.5% for the others. Although the HSBC is up to 7.7%

Regards

[Gatekeeper]

Interesting article on the US housing market, with comments (near the bottom) on the NZ market.

Cheers

http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_04/tacinv050404.html

Anatomy Of A Real Estate Crash
Sol Palha

"In the real world, nothing happens at the right place at the right time. It is the job of journalists and historians to correct that.
Mark Twain"

Real estate has always been one of the ways to make fortunes. In fact, real estate and the stock market have made more millionaires than any other field. The sad part is that most individuals that speculate in either of the two areas end up losing. The era of extreme low interest rates, propaganda that landlords are getting rich at the expense of their tenants and that it is the American dream to own a house, no matter how outrageously it is priced, have resulted in prices going through the roof. Lets stop now and examine some real life events.

[cube]

State-owned Kiwibank today joined other banks in hiking its floating mortgage rate.

Kiwibank lifted its rate from 6.95 per cent to 7.2 per cent, maintaining its margin over other banks.

Yesterday, ASB and Westpac raised their rates to 7.75 per cent from 7.5 per cent.

Westpac said the move, in response to last week's move by the Reserve Bank to hike the Official Cash Rate to 5.5 per cent, added $24.50 to a monthly payment on a $150,000 mortgage on a 25 year term.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/latestnewsstory.cfm?storyID=3564605&thesection=business&thesubsection=latest

[BigAl1]

Lots of action on the rates front - see this

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/article.php?ArticleID=976489406

Also track what's happening

http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/section.php?CategoryID=200

[muppet]

Hi Guys

Woweeee. ANZ raised everything in sight today.

Regards

[The_Dog]

Bugger!! (as the man in the Toyota once said)

ASB have put their floating rate up, and I just had a loan settle today (yesterday NZ time.)

I also have an ANZ deal going through in the next couple of weeks. Time to lock down!!

[drelly]

Sure is... I've locked most of my debt in for 1-2 years at 6.6 and 6.7%

[BigAl1]

Weekly rate update from Good Returns

Last week was one of the busiest weeks for rate changes - all spurred on by the Reserve Bank’s recent decision to raise the OCR 25 basis points and encouraging economic news from the United States.

The main trend during the week was for floating rates to go up 25 basis points, which means the banks are around the 7.75% mark.

Fixed rates tended to go up across the board, but generally by only 10 basis points.

The last of the banks moved this morning with BNZ putting up all its rates and National putting its floating up.

BNZ still remains one of the lowest in the two and three year category at 6.89% and 7.20% respectively. Its floating rate is the same as the other banks.

The war between BNZ and HSBC was also a highlight of the week. HSBC matching BNZ’s two and three year rates, plus offering up to $1000 for legal fees. HSBC has advised that its three year rate of 6.88% will be withdrawn at the end of the day and replaced with 7.15%.

The other news item from the week was that Elders Home Loans are now called United Home Loans.

Full - sortable - rates table here http://www.goodreturns.co.nz/section.php?CategoryID=200

[muppet]

Hi guys

A big flurry of interest rate rises tonight.

Westpac again leading the rush. Rates on 6mths fixed to 5yr fixed up from 7.1% - 7.75%.

Kiwibank also increased 4 and 5 yr fixed rates.

National floating rate to 7.75%

TSB rates up.

And you all know that BNZ rates are up as well.

There has been a big rush upwards from the Financial Institutions as well.

Check out the new rates at:

http://www.interest.co.nz/mortgages.html

Regards

[cube]

North-East & North-West

Interesting article on China, and its approach to controlling growth:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3700921.stm

World leaders seldom stand up to dish the dirt on their country's economy.
But China's Premier Wen Jiabao has been doing just that on his European tour this week, warning that China's roaring juggernaut of an economy risks coming off the rails after growing 9.1% last year.

At dinner with 400 UK executives in London, Mr Wen compared himself to the driver of a speeding car, trying to avoid an emergency stop. "We cannot slam the brakes, we have to press the brakes gently," he said.

In Brussels, he was even more blunt, triggering headlines by describing aspects of China's growth as "excessive".

cube