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How tentative is "tentative" recovery?

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  • fudosan
    Reaching out to Asia
    • Jun 2004
    • 2084

    #1

    How tentative is "tentative" recovery?

    Is the industrial market really recovering? Does a few sale indicate recovery? Well, if this is the logic, I can also say the office market has already recovered, as signaled by Bob Jones's purchase of Forsyth Bar Tower on 55 Shorthand Street in June this year.

    Tentative recovery in industrial property market
    Jazial Crossley | Monday December 7 2009 - 11:54am

    The industrial property market is looking more positive, with an increase of multimillion dollar sales occurring recently but an excess of properties plagues the market.

    According to the latest research from commercial property company Colliers after stalling in late 2007, the industrial property engine is running again - but only in first gear.

    "It has always been a truism that quality property outperforms secondary property over time, but this has seldom been so clearly evident as in the last twelve months in New Zealand’s industrial property markets,” Colliers head of research Alan McMahon said.

    The rate of rent that industrial properties charge has fallen and the incentives landlords need to offer have increased as with all sectors of the property market during the recession. But private equity investment remains robust and there is some development activity being seen.

    Last week at Goodman Property Trust’s Highbrook business park in East Tamaki, Australian-owned glass manufacturer Viridian Glass opened its newly completed glass processing factory and it plans to build two more by 2012.

    In terms of recent industrial sales, a Goodyear and Dunlop tyres re-treading plant in East Tamaki sold for $2.5 million recently, a North Harbour industrial building sold for $9.4 million, and a 6,475sq m industrial property at Wairau Valley on Auckland’s North Shore sold for $3.5 million.

    In all of these three cases the buyers were private investors, but that’s not to say the big players aren’t still active – Direct Property Fund recent $53 million purchase of the Fisher & Paykel Appliances headquarters at East Tamaki being one example.

    "Industrial investment parcels are often smaller, and less complex than office or retail property counterparts, and it is not surprising that this asset class has seen the quickest recovery in investor demand. However, there are many older buildings to lease or for sale, but little demand, while there are very few modern large buildings for sale as investments, which is what private investors are keen to buy,” Mr McMahon said.

    The biggest problem in the industrial property sector is that there is an excess of industrial properties on the market, particularly in South Auckland where the number of buildings up for lease in the category skyrocketed from only 50 to 500 in the past two years.
    Source: http://www.nbr.co.nz/article/tentati...-market-115986
  • eri
    Fanatical
    • Sep 2008
    • 7621

    #2
    there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines

    and every now and some of it gets bored and darts in to grab something that looks undervalued

    a few others, who were waiting for someone else to go 1st, then follow

    that's a tentative recovery

    but if all the rest of the parked money stays on the sidelines.......

    it becomes a stalled recovery

    deals will continue to be made

    but stopping of the bad news isn't the same as increasing good news
    have you defeated them?
    your demons

    Comment

    • Commercial Realtor
      Freshie
      • Jan 2009
      • 26

      #3
      I fear 2010 will bring more bad news for the economy.

      Comment

      • SecretAgent
        Freshie
        • Dec 2009
        • 43

        #4
        Originally posted by eri View Post
        there is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines
        We often hear that phrase. But is it cold hard cash sitting on the sidelines, or is it credit capacity?

        There is a fundamental difference and there are factors which can make it available... or not.

        Just wondering.
        Last edited by SecretAgent; 31-12-2009, 06:26 PM. Reason: here = hear

        Comment

        • Dean@Massiveaction
          Giving life my best shot
          • Jun 2005
          • 5213

          #5
          Definitely cash. I can't believe how many people I know sitting on millions waiting to spend it. Never heard from them in the boom :-)

          Comment

          • SecretAgent
            Freshie
            • Dec 2009
            • 43

            #6
            Originally posted by Dean@Massiveaction View Post
            Definitely cash. I can't believe how many people I know sitting on millions waiting to spend it. Never heard from them in the boom :-)
            That's interesting Dean.

            I have a family member with "cash" waiting for a low risk opportunity as well... essentially cash on the sidelines, and lots of it and now actively looking for an inflation hedge.

            But with most people I know, it boils down to credit capacity... directly or indirectly.

            I'm not disagreeing with you at all, just influenced by a small sample size.

            Comment

            • eri
              Fanatical
              • Sep 2008
              • 7621

              #7
              the thing is

              even if it's credit capacity

              at the end of the line

              there's someone with cash

              and if the cash owners don't trust the bank/economy enough to park their cash in term deposits

              there is no credit capacity for those who believe their debit loads are sustainable

              and are betting that some bargains now can help balance some of their boom follies

              when the economic tide comes back

              it never lifts all the boats that used to sail
              have you defeated them?
              your demons

              Comment

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