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If rent potential is X amount, then what?

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  • Mojo
    Opinionated
    • Jan 2006
    • 102

    #1

    If rent potential is X amount, then what?

    Hi everyone,

    I have a question, to which I hope your answers will help enlighten me on some of the things that are and aren't important to you as property investors - I've made some mistakes but I will learn, eventually. I don't think anyone has a perfectly 'right ' or 'correct' way to go about property investing. So your way will not always be right for me. However, it's always useful to hear from experience, and there is almost always something to be gained from knowing how anyone has succeeded or failed....


    QUESTION:

    If you know in a given sought-after area that rent potential for a 3-bedroom house is $350 p/w max (that's the going price, hasn't changed much in a few years despite house values skyrocketing, so can't really count on more), what is the maximum you would, could or should pay?

    Some considerations:

    -was always a very popular suburb for families, young professionals and the elderly alike, but now increasingly sought after as most houses are now done up or getting done up, more cafes and other desired amenities springing up, and location for both outdoor lifestyle choices AND proximity to CBD (less than 10 minutes) pretty much unbeatable.

    -Plus the suburb has unique geographical feature that surrounds it and defines it (and makes it 'secure'), and the schools are good. So both short and long-term outlook for house values better than most anywhere else, even in 'down' periods.

    - Real potential still exists to add value, as a) the rare houses not yet done are selling up to $100,000+ less than done houses, and b) 4+ bedroom houses are rare & highly sought after - and there is often potential to add or incorporate 4th bedroom/ convert garages/ add sleepouts as sections are generally 600sm - 800sm (subdivision pretty much not possible)

    - prices are $250K to $350K (undone 3-BR) , $350K to $550K+ (done-up 3- or 4BR) and still rising (2003 prices = $130K to $230K undone, and up to $330K done). 'Done' houses (and many undone as well) are still (meaning as of yesterday) being snapped up on same day offered.

    OK, so please tell me what you would pay maximum for a PI in this neighborhood and why? Would you consider the potential to immediately increase equity by $50K to $100K with some cosmetic work? Would you ever consider putting in more of your own money/borrowing less to purchase? Would you risk negative cash flow now for likely positive in a few years if large capital gain is almost a certainty (i.e. would capital gain - and DOES capital gain for that matter - every figure into your calculations?). Are there any other considerations you would have to take into account?

    I guess ultimately I'm trying to figure out if any of you would even think of purchasing in this sort of price range with these returns and at today's interest rates. And how you work backwards from the expected rent to a comfortable purchase price, while possibly taking into account other factors such as capital gains and/or putting in more money and taking smaller mortgage (I haven't seen this last question discussed before - do you ALWAYS choose to buy property with minimum of your own cash and maximum borrowing? I can see how again certain considerations, such as whether or not you have your own house mortgage still to pay off, might come into play, but are there other considerations as well?)

    cheers
  • Heg
    Fanatical
    • Jul 2005
    • 1309

    #2
    Hi Mojo,
    the short answer is 'it depends what your investing rules are'
    I know this doesn't answer your questions but it truly depends on what you are going to do with the property.
    Are you looking for a buy and hold with cashflow or are you buying to do up and flick on or are you looking for negatively geared but with a view to getting capital gain?
    You need to decide what you want before anyone can offer you much in the way of advice. Many of the experienced investors on this forum will be able to give sound advice on any one of the scenarios, but you will ultimately need to decide which one will work best for you.
    Cheers
    Heg
    Jo Birch
    Looking for someone to manage your next project or event? Then call now!
    +61 450 148 678

    Comment

    • Holly
      Freshie
      • Jan 2005
      • 95

      #3
      Hi Mojo
      You could use the following formula
      wkly rent x 52 /yield required this will give you a maximum purchase price.
      $350 x 52/10% = $182k.
      Holly.
      "New Property Trader"
      To be added to my
      database please PM me.

      Comment

      • drelly
        Fanatical
        • Jan 2004
        • 5838

        #4
        As an alternative to Holly's formula, change the yield to what the actual market yield is (about 6% maybe?) and work out a possible market value of the property.
        You can find me at: Energise Web Design

        Comment

        • RentMaster
          Addicted
          • Jun 2005
          • 914

          #5
          Hi Mojo

          It sounds like you are being highly reliant on capital gains rather than cashflow as your income.

          Capital gains have been great in the past, but are expected to slow or even go slightly negative in the short term future. So it is guess-work relying on capital gains.

          Do you intend to hold onto the property long term as a rental or do it up and sell it. If you intend to hold it for a long time, then the capital gains are less important. You need the cashflow to pay the mortgage. If you intend to sell it quickly, then expected resale value becomes more important.

          As Heg says, it depends.....

          Comment

          • Rhys
            Freshie
            • Jun 2005
            • 76

            #6
            Hi

            for me its just a decision process

            what does the busness plan say I should be doing

            then I would look strictly at the numbers, and for that I have a spreadsheet that I stuff parameters into and it spits out results for various scenarios. E.G it calculates net yeild based on 70%, 80% and 90% lvr, it tells me what the mnimum rent must be to break even, 7%+ve and 10%+ve (im not that interested in how much rent would need to be to lose money ) things like that. I can also stick in the purchase price and market value and it spits out related info. so basicly what I'm saying is I take a good look at the figures to see where it works and where it doesn't and what would be required to make it work.

            from there if the figures stack up then look at the consideretions, similar to the ones you list

            then look at my current position and make sure it fits
            E.G can I get finance for the purchase price etc.

            so in direct answer to your question "would I consider buying it" answer No... my business plan is to look for a property in England, so this one will never be right for me

            but that doesn't mean you shouldn't consider it.

            I hate it when I have a question where the answers only create further questions and I think you have one of these on your plate here!.

            Good luck I hope you get some resolution.
            Cheers
            R

            Comment

            • JohnL
              Addicted
              • Feb 2004
              • 651

              #7
              It definitley depends on your long term goals.

              Just remember that if you plan to go for short term capital gain, you need to structure correctly and pay the tax, particularly if you want to repeat the formula.

              If its a long term buy and hold, I personally wouldn't go for a negatively geared property as it could limit the size of your portfolio as you would soon run out of servicability in the eyes of the lenders.

              John

              Comment

              • Mojo
                Opinionated
                • Jan 2006
                • 102

                #8
                Thanks....

                ...I don't have time to reply to anyone just now but did want to say thanks for taking time to respond, and to mention that this thread wasn't meant to be about me, but about you and how YOU determine if a property might be worth buying. I'm interested in the formulas you use, plus wanted to know if and when you ever stray from those formulas. I also wanted to know about things that are not so often discussed (as far as I can see anyway) in these forums, such as how much $ to put down, if that amount varies from house to house and why it would vary etc.

                I'm particularly interested to know if you work backwards from rent potential of $350 p/w , and come up with say Holly's figure of $182,000 - what is that $182,000? The amount you should purchase for to be able to be cash flow+? Or is this how much the mortgage should be for? Are you putting any money in yourself in this formula/scenario or is it 100% mortgage? And if the house is actually selling for $250K say, needs $10,000 put in to prepare it for rental, and will then have new value of $300K - do you consider buying and making up in cash the extra money? Why wouldn't you put in the extra money as cash if you had it? How do you figure this all out? (Let's assume this is a buy to hold.) And would you ever buy in negative cash flow situation when you think that it could become cash flow+ within a few years?

                BTW - perhaps this is flawed thinking in your eyes, but at the moment I prefer to only look at properties (houses) in popular areas because a) I expect to be able to rent easily and to quality tenants, and b) these properties are more recession proof and re-sellable in even worst economic tiimes.

                Maybe I should ask one more question: for all you 'buy and hold' investors - are you really investing just for the monthly income, or are you also looking at the capital value (for your retirement or whatever?) down the road a ways? There is no capital gains tax on most long-term PIs so surely this has SOME influence on how you view a property? !



                Cheers, Mojo

                Comment

                • Chemill
                  Opinionated
                  • Nov 2004
                  • 163

                  #9
                  If I were to hold this long term as a rental:
                  I would approach this by taking expected rent, subtract off all non-interest expenses (including any allowances for vacancy etc) and calculate expected Net profit before interest and tax (NPBIT).
                  I subtract $XX (my minimum required profit) off NPBIT. Now I work backwards and divide (NPBIT - $XX) by the mortgage interest. This gives my maximum mortgage you can have on the property. Add to this any capital you're putting in and you've got yourself an Absoute maximum price for purchase.

                  From here I do all my yield calcs.I have this on a spreadsheet so it's all automated - I just put in the numbers.

                  In terms of this particular property - it sounds like it wouldn't be positive cash flow, so I'd look at in terms of tidying the place up and sell for profit. The calcs are simple. Expected sale price - Purchase price - cost of doing up (including real estate fees and tax) = Profit. If the profit is too small for my liking, reduce the purchase price or walk away.

                  My personal situation mostly dictates what direction to consider.

                  Chemill.

                  Comment

                  • Cliffy
                    Addicted
                    • Nov 2003
                    • 522

                    #10
                    For me to buy a property to hold, it has to not negatively impact my serviceability (DSR) so I can continue buying, and the cashflow then takes care of itself.

                    Hence, if the rent was $350 my max purchase price is calculated like this:

                    $350x52 = $18,200
                    $18,200 x 0.75 (bank's avg ratio for how much rent they will take into account to service mortgage) = $13,650
                    $13,650 / 8% (current mortgage rate) = $170,625

                    so max I would pay is $170K, meaning I wouldn't look at this deal to keep. However, it might be OK to trade.
                    We Buy Houses | Sell Your House Fast - No Fees, No Stress

                    Comment

                    • muppet
                      Banned
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 10593

                      #11
                      Hi Cliffy

                      So basically you are using Steve McKnight's 11 sec rule which will give you 10.4% gross yield or more.

                      For those who don't know the 11 Sec Rule, divide est rent by 2 and multiply by 1000 will give an est amount to pay for a house.
                      Therefore if the rent is $350/wk then to get a 10.4% gross yield you shouldn't pay more than $178k.

                      Your example above will give you about 11% gross yield.

                      Having much difficulty finding that sort of gross yield, even in Tokoroa.

                      Regards

                      Comment

                      • LondonKiwi
                        Kiwi now in Oz
                        • Dec 2004
                        • 410

                        #12
                        If you can find 10.4% today you are doing very well, in fact buy what you can.

                        It's been interesting reading this thread as one of my properties I get $360 a week for and I paid $265K for it 2 years ago....only a 7% yield but it was at a $30K discount then(its now valued at $330K).

                        So sometimes you have to allow for other considerations outside of the standard formula.

                        LK

                        Comment

                        • Cliffy
                          Addicted
                          • Nov 2003
                          • 522

                          #13
                          Originally posted by muppet
                          So basically you are using Steve McKnight's 11 sec rule which will give you 10.4% gross yield or more.
                          Hi muppet, basically yes. Although I think it was around long before Steve Mcknight.

                          Originally posted by LondonKiwi
                          If you can find 10.4% today you are doing very well, in fact buy what you can.
                          I agree, which is why i'm not buying many long term buy & holds. Although with a 20% deposit, then a 10.4% yield on the mortgage value is achievable.

                          With the formula I use, if you can increase the rent then you can pay more.
                          e.g. In the example above, by lease optioning, the rent could be increased to maybe $450pw (with $100 rent credit) then the formula gives a max purchase price around $220K which is not too far off the estimated $250K value and gives you instant equity as well.

                          Lease optioning may not give you long term capital appreciation, but using that strategy for this deal at least gives you +ve cashflow for say 2-5yrs which is better than nothing.
                          We Buy Houses | Sell Your House Fast - No Fees, No Stress

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