Header Ad Module

Collapse

Property ramblings

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Julian
    Fanatical
    • Jan 2005
    • 1524

    #1

    Property ramblings

    Now that fully self funding property is getting difficult to find in New Zealand, strategies are changing - with more people doing flicks, do-ups, wraps etc.

    This represents a move from strict investing into a business module, with GST and tax implications that are different to investing. Others are getting into business associated with property, offering anything from property finding services to mentoring.

    With this in mind one has to ask is property the best business to be in, and this is my question to you, "If your job or business has now become property is this the best use of your mental, physical, and financial resources? For example, if say you have significant IT skills would your efforts be better rewarded in this sector as opposed to property?

    I note that a few years ago we had the opportunity to reap comparitively very good returns from property but not very many people were interested in it. Currently the investment returns from property are low, yet we seem to have no end of people willing to climb aboard.

    Fortunately recent entrants to the property market have been rewarded with ever increasing prices, so despite having to put in heafty deposits, or to top up loans, the equity has been increasing. To keep the dollars flowing some investors have changed strategies from investing to trading, but again profits in this sector being propped up by increasing prices.

    To me this seems a bit like the share market of the late 1990s that seemed like it could keep on going for ever, but despite one of the longest bull runs in history it dropped like a stone in mid 2000. What will happen to all the highly geared property investors if/when this happens, if interest rates go into double digits, if property values drop, if banks start calling in highly geared loans, if finance criteria changes, if rents start plummeting, if legislative changes impinge on returns?

    The trouble with property investing per se is that it doesn't add wealth. A painter adds wealth by continuing to paint pictures that enhance people's lives, just as a builder does by creating new spaces that people can work and live in, but once created and sold to an investor, be it a building or a painting, the investor adds little wealth to the equation, other than by paying the builder or painter some money to continue adding value to planet earth. It is the painters, builders, scientists, manufacturers, inventors, problem solvers that add value to this planet, but not the investors.

    Perhaps the low returns on property are here to stay, and perhaps that is how it should be, for we as investors aren't adding much value, other than freeing up an entrepreneur/business person's resources so that he or she can go and add value to the planet.

    What are your thoughts?

    Julian
    Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!
  • CJ
    Fanatical
    • Oct 2003
    • 3570

    #2
    Dont give up your day job!

    If everyone becomes a mentor or a property finder, who are they gonig to mentor or find property for.

    Unless you are already in the game (or out of the rat race or what ever you want to call it) you will probably have to wait to the next boom to do it.

    Comment

    • tricky
      Fanatical
      • Dec 2004
      • 1127

      #3
      Don't agree with you Julian, in that investors aren't adding value to the planet.
      I'm giving a person shelter, a roof over their head and a safe and secure place to rest.
      Without me providing this service, where would this person be?
      I think I'm making quite a useful contribution to the planet.
      tricky

      Comment

      • Julian
        Fanatical
        • Jan 2005
        • 1524

        #4
        CJ
        I don't have a day job! I am one of the aforementioned sycophants who adds no (or very little) value.

        Tricky,
        Presumably the house was already there before you bought it, and presumably people were living in it. You have merely exchanged one set of human inhabitants for another. The world is no better for you being the owner as opposed to the previous owner.

        Julian
        Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

        Comment

        • BusyLizzy
          ***** Junkie
          • Apr 2005
          • 2311

          #5
          I am a newbie still on the hunt for that elusive cashflow positive property for my first (of many?) IP's.

          After reading the NZ Herald article today, and Julian's 'ramblings', I am starting to be concerned, and wonder whether or not I perhaps SHOULD hold off for another year or two, and in the interim, keeping throwing my surplus $$'s at my PPOR mortgage.

          Hmmmmm... food for thought. (It won't stop me from looking around though!).
          Lisa

          Comment

          • tricky
            Fanatical
            • Dec 2004
            • 1127

            #6
            Julian,
            I think my tenant values my contribution - and shows it every week. As does every other tenant.
            But maybe you're right.
            We're just worthless investors cluttering up the planet.
            Shoot us all! Throw out our tenants, close down our properties and burn them!
            Maybe you could gift me a few of your properties while you're in this mood? - I'm sure you'll feel better.
            tricky

            Comment

            • Julian
              Fanatical
              • Jan 2005
              • 1524

              #7
              tricky,

              I'm sure your tenant does value having you as a landlord. I'm sure you are a very good landlord, and that your efforts are appreciated.

              My comments were not meant as a slight against landlords, but to give my observations and to provoke thought. My comments had two parts to them:

              1. unless we build, renovate or whatever we, as investors, are not adding much value to the planet, and therefore is it likely we can expect our wealth to keep growing expenentially as it has recently?

              2. is this obsession with property (and I am as afflicted as the next person) serving us best?

              For this I look at some people who seem to have done reasonably well without immersing themselves primarily in property, people such as Bill Gates, Warren Buffett, Kerry Packer, Rupert Murdock and the like. Even our own home-grown Graeme Hart has made his fortune from business.

              Of course property has proved to be an excellent holder or retainer of wealth, but for building wealth are there, perhaps, better vehicles?

              Julian
              Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

              Comment

              • tisme
                Freshie
                • Jun 2005
                • 27

                #8
                hey Julian
                have you not built your wealth through property? or are you holding it there?
                tisme

                Comment

                • Julian
                  Fanatical
                  • Jan 2005
                  • 1524

                  #9
                  tisme,
                  Guilty as charged (on both counts), but much of that wealth was built in a more investor-friendly market. I'm not so sure I would do nearly as well if I was starting out in the current environment.
                  Also I've been incredibly lucky, timing wise, with my property investments. Anyone that threw spare money at property did pretty well if they got into it a few years back. If I was starting out now I don't think property investing would see me sitting around navel-gazing in 3-4 years time.

                  Julian
                  Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

                  Comment

                  • RentMaster
                    Addicted
                    • Jun 2005
                    • 914

                    #10
                    This is an interesting discussion.

                    I must admit that I too have been wondering a similar thing. Is property really the best use of time and resources at the moment.

                    Rental yields are dropping, and property prices are expected to do not much over the short term.

                    But I think the long term still looks good. We are in the slump phase. This is the time to be cautious, and expect not much good to happen. But slowly accumulating properties now, and keeping a conservative LVR to take advantage of the next boom is a good idea.

                    Just my few cents worth.

                    Comment

                    • kolzee
                      Opinionated
                      • Oct 2004
                      • 188

                      #11
                      Interesting thoughts Julian, i agree to an extent with 'hold and rent' property investors adding little value but, when it comes to people making additions to a property then i do class this as creating value....

                      You say "the investor adds little wealth to the equation, other than by paying the builder or painter some money to continue adding value to planet earth", however, you'll find that the world's most wealthy people do exactly that......pay other people to realise the value that they foresee in their idea.

                      I think you'd be hardpressed to find a time when Rupert Murdoch actually worked on a paper press or Bill Gates wrote software.

                      Don't you think the idea is the value creation??

                      Comment

                      • Propoholic
                        AKL Event Organiser
                        • Apr 2005
                        • 786

                        #12
                        Yes, this is an interesting thread!
                        RentMaster wrote:
                        We are in the slump phase. This is the time to be cautious, and expect not much good to happen. But slowly accumulating properties now, and keeping a conservative LVR to take advantage of the next boom is a good idea.
                        Yes, perhaps it is healthy to view these phases like Summer and Winter, you may not go sunbathing on the beach but there is still plenty of skiing to be done. The slump phase is very much about management and maintenance. During the boom phase an investor can come out looking very good without doing too much of the above (management/maintenance) but during the slump these two will need to become a priority.

                        At what yield level will you start to consider 'buying' as unviable in the short term? How much effort are you prepared to put in to try and make the deals work? Remember, the market (given a bit of time) will make the deals work for you, the market will do this for free!!

                        I think in conjunction with Julian's questions we should remember that there is a whole investing population out there that have become passionate about property investing in the last four years on the back of some large capital gains. Its almost like a warm and fond relationship that has developed. Perhaps your current property investing outlook has more to do with that warm and fond relationship than purely numbers. We've all become very expert at looking at the numbers for a potential deal but how do the numbers now affect your strategy for the next three years?

                        If you can recognise and respond fairly quickly to changes in market conditions you will have a head start on the investor who is waiting to be conditioned by the market.

                        Comment

                        • Julian
                          Fanatical
                          • Jan 2005
                          • 1524

                          #13
                          Rupert Murdoch and Bill Gates might not physically load the paper onto the presses or key in the software but they oversee the entire organisations so that they function efficiently - supplying customers with products and services they want, and thus generating profits for the shareholders. You will find that these key personnel work damned hard on getting the big picture right and leave the minutae to the minions.

                          My point was, and it seems I'm not particular efficient in conveying it, was that perhaps we have very little hope of extracting good rental returns from property, because the service we offer is relatively low-risk and involves a minimum of effort or expertise (say compared with most other businesses). I would go further and suggest that there are very few of you who make the bulk of your income from your rents. You may have built up substantial equity but you are still a slave to your 9-5 job.

                          If rents stay low and property prices stabilise or reduce we have to look at other options for better returns. The most obvious choice is business, either directly or indirectly (shares).

                          Property people being as they are, and liking a hands-on approach, seem to abhor the idea of investing in shares, but owning and running a business for themselves might be worthy of consideration.

                          Dean Letfus, Chris Ashenden, Kieran Trass Steve Goodey and many others have made a business out of property. Others may have businesses in fields distinct from property.

                          I am trying to stimulate some debate on the thought of pulling some money out of buy-and-hold investment property and putting it into business(es) with theoretically higher returns.

                          What are your thoughts?

                          ...and please do not take offence at any of this - it is merely to stimulate thought and discussion.

                          Julian
                          Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

                          Comment

                          • cube
                            Thinking outside the square.
                            • Jun 2005
                            • 5076

                            #14
                            One advantage of property as a business is that it scales nicely.

                            You can spend 4 hours a month on it, or 60 hours a week, and still get a reasonable return on your time. This differs from being self-employed or owning a small business, where the customers are more demanding.

                            You could set up a mechanics, toy shop , software house etc., but unless you put in a minimum effort of, say, 20 hours a week, you won't survive because your 'yield' will rapidly reduce to 0, because customers want your shop open when its convenient for them, not for you.

                            Property, particularly Buy and Hold, allows you get get a return of anything from -$100 to $megabucks a week, and you can choose your own hours and return that you want.

                            You are still providing a service, but its far more on your terms.

                            I agree with Julian that if you are looking for a. the maximum return on YOUR money (not other peoples!) and b. to give up the 9-5, there may be better options right now than property, but only property gives you the flexbility to do it part time, full time, weekends, whenever.

                            The point on Other Peoples Money is relevent too - getting funding for a start-up small business can be more work than actually running the business, whereas lending for property is freely available for the asking. The reason for that is precisely the reason that most of us are in the game in the first place - its low risk with the opportunity to make big gains every now and then.

                            I could go on, but unfortunately I haven't retired rich, and retiring young is fast becomming not an option!

                            cube
                            DFTBA

                            Comment

                            • captaincrab
                              Fanatical
                              • May 2005
                              • 1069

                              #15
                              Good thread.I dont think Property Investors create value. Sure they may add value to tenants and their own lives but I think they really take advantage of existing value, or unlock value if you like. If you were building your own rental properties then you would be creating value by turning an undeveloped site into a developed site. At this stage in the cycle we will see people not changing houses but improving what they own. Its cheaper to put a new kitchen in than buy a new house! It is also a cheap way of creating extra value in your property. Starting a business from scratch is the ultimate in wealth creation- if you get it right.

                              Comment

                              Working...