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Buying real estate when prices are rising may be dangerous

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  • whitt
    Fanatical
    • Jun 2005
    • 3922

    #1

    Buying real estate when prices are rising may be dangerous

    Financial intelligence
    Buying real estate when prices are rising may be dangerous for the unschooled
    Graeme Fowler was a 24-year-old mechanic hungry for wealth when he learned his first painful lesson about property investment. With Bob Jones’s book Jones on Property under one arm, and a real estate agent twisting the other, he bought the first property he saw in Wellington’s Stokes Valley. He lost $40,000 on the two three-bedroom flats as rents in the low-end housing area fell year after year.

    But a bit of red ink wasn’t going to deter Fowler, who was convinced property dealing would make him rich. Today he’s 40, twice retired, and wealthy enough to make it thrice if he knew he wasn’t going to be bored silly. He lives in Havelock North and has bought 100 properties in the past four years. He currently owns about 60 and deals in both long-term rental properties and do-up sales. He also owns the Mr Rentals home-appliance rental franchise in Hawke’s Bay and has half shares in the franchise in Palmerston North and Wanganui.

    Fowler’s first investment bombed financially because he was knowledge-poor and didn’t have investing rules, he says. “It wasn’t failure. It was just what I hadn’t learned.” By the time he sold the Stokes Valley property seven years later he was a high achieving real estate salesman in Wellington and had sold a successful network marketing business. But it is knowledge, not money, that makes a successful investor, he says.

    “The higher your financial intelligence, the less money you need. Now, if I lost everything, I wouldn’t need money to make more money. I would start with a business first and build up a good cash flow to put into property. A lot try to make money solely on the property and struggle. If you can’t save you’re relying on capital gains, which I think is very dangerous.”

    Fowler, who this year produced a book on property investment, New Zealand Real Estate Investors’ Secrets, banks on a property’s value falling after purchase. If he gets a capital gain, that’s a bonus. All his property loans are on a principal and interest repayment or revolving credit basis, which increases his equity every year, he says. Investors who plan to pay off the interest solely with any capital gain, risk losing any benefit if that doesn’t happen. Continually borrowing 80% to buy and sell in strong markets is also dangerous, he says. If the market drops 20%, you can lose everything when the bank decides you’re overextended.

    Fowler believes it’s important to fix interest rates, he doesn’t try guessing what floating rates might do. But if rates rose too high, he might sell some property “just to ease my mind a bit”. When purchasing for a long term “buy and hold” strategy, he shops for a property that’ll need little maintenance and was built after 1960. A sell-on proposition can be a lot older.

    Up until recently Fowler managed all his properties. Now he has a manager so he can concentrate on doing what he’s best at — negotiating purchase deals. That’s where the money is made, he says.
  • CJ
    Fanatical
    • Oct 2003
    • 3570

    #2
    Whitt,

    What is the source of that article?

    Has anyone heard from Orion (aka Graham Fowler) recently? I dont remember him doing any posts?

    Comment

    • Julian
      Fanatical
      • Jan 2005
      • 1524

      #3
      I don't see how the body of that article supports the headline, though you do have to admire Graham's achievements, and his book is a very worthwhile read. The most important thing for me in that book was how all the persons interviewed had beaten a different path.

      Much of the recent talk about building wealth has advocated Interest-Only loans yet Graham achieved incredible results with P&I loans, an approach which has the effect of continually reducing the debt. I tend to agree with Graham on that, though I am cognisant of the argued logic of IO.

      Julian
      Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

      Comment

      • whitt
        Fanatical
        • Jun 2005
        • 3922

        #4
        source
        a NZ financial website i came across. date of article was nov or dec 04 from memory

        Comment

        • Josko
          Fanatical
          • Dec 2004
          • 2075

          #5
          Originally posted by Julian
          I don't see how the body of that article supports the headline
          I agree with Julian, in fact, orion, on many occasions points out that there is no correlation between movement of prices in the property market and purchasing IP's, when taking into consideration your investment rules.

          Originally posted by CJ
          Has anyone heard from Orion (aka Graeme Fowler) recently? I dont remember him doing any posts?
          Muppet might be able to shed some light on this one, though I appreciate Graeme would be quite busy with Mr Rentals, Wink & Grow Rich workshop, His own workshop and not mention negotiating on new IP's.

          Trust all is going well there, orion.

          Cheers, ivi

          Comment

          • muppet
            Banned
            • Sep 2003
            • 10593

            #6
            Hi Guys

            No I haven't heard from Graeme lately, except I get a daily email from him with a quotation in it. These I sometimes post on PT.

            Regards

            Comment

            • orion
              Fanatical
              • Dec 2003
              • 1750

              #7
              The article was in the Dec issue of "Unlimited", I'd never heard of them until one of the journalists called me last year to do an article. There is a part in the article quoted below which she mis-quoted, and doesn't make any sense -

              Continually borrowing 80% to buy and sell in strong markets is also dangerous, he says. If the market drops 20%, you can lose everything when the bank decides you’re overextended.
              What I said was that continually have 80% or more in borrowings is dangerous, and is what many investors using I/O do - their properties go up in value, so they refinance everything up to 80% again to buy more properties, rather then saving money from elsewhere to fund new purchases. If the market drops 20% anytime while they are geared at 80%, which could be in 5 years, or it could be in 25 years, chances are they'll lose everything they've worked for over all those years. It's an okay strategy to use short term, say a few years or so, but not a safe long term strategy, in fact to me it's down right stupid and very much like playing Russian Roulette. Habits are very hard to break for most people, so if you're not disciplined enough, just start doing it safely from the start.

              Yes, have been very busy lately with lots of things, also away a lot.

              Regards
              Graeme Fowler
              Facebook Property Chat Group NZ
              https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/

              Comment

              • kolzee
                Opinionated
                • Oct 2004
                • 188

                #8
                Today he’s 40, twice retired, and wealthy enough to make it thrice if he knew he wasn’t going to be bored silly.
                Can somebody explain to me why being twice (or thrice) retired is better than once?? Seems odd that retiring then going back to work then retiring again is being made out to be better than retiring once?? I know which i want to do!!!

                Anyway, graham - i find your views interesting.

                IMO there is a lot to be said for having periods of expanding your portfolio at some stages of the market, and in other stages consolidating your debt/position.

                This means that your debt may sit within a range depending on the stage.

                On a totally different note, this magazine (Unlimited) is great for those interested in more entrepreneurial activities. I have read it for a long time, have provided market feedback for them and even had discussions on writing a column for them for a while. Great for those wanting to expand their general commercial knowledge.


                over and out

                kolzee

                Comment

                • Julian
                  Fanatical
                  • Jan 2005
                  • 1524

                  #9
                  kolzee,

                  Retirement is much like an impressive manor-house filled with maids and servants - when you don't own one you aspire to being Lord of the Manor. Once you've owned it for a while you tend to long for the rambling old villa that gave you so much satisfaction, as you constantly repaired and refurbished it, all those years ago.

                  On another note, don't you think Graeme is worthy of having his name spelt correctly, especially when he has just signed off on the previous posting? As a budding writer you will do great dis-service to those you quote if you mis-spell their names.

                  Julian
                  Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

                  Comment

                  • Julian
                    Fanatical
                    • Jan 2005
                    • 1524

                    #10
                    Oops! I see I am guilty of the same crime, in an earlier posting. Sorry Graeme. Actually I think I was following on from anothers mis-spelling and perpetuated the error. I remember looking for my copy of your book to check the correct spelling, but it had been borrowed - so I guess I will be buying my third copy in due course.
                    Julian.
                    Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

                    Comment

                    • muppet
                      Banned
                      • Sep 2003
                      • 10593

                      #11
                      Hi Julian

                      Looks as if I'll be up for my second copy of Graeme's book.

                      Regards

                      Comment

                      • Julian
                        Fanatical
                        • Jan 2005
                        • 1524

                        #12
                        So what's your story, Muppet? Sounds like you have moved to Toke, and have set up a business cleaning houses when tenants vacate. And I gather you own rentals as well?
                        I'm moving to Rotorua early April. Perhaps, we could catch up over a beer or three, if you're inclined.
                        Julian
                        Gimme $20k. You will receive some well packaged generic advice that will put you on the road to riches beyond your wildest dreams ...yeah right!

                        Comment

                        • muppet
                          Banned
                          • Sep 2003
                          • 10593

                          #13
                          Hi Julian

                          Sounds good.

                          Rotorua is only 57Kms or 36mins travel time away.

                          Looking forward to meeting up with you.

                          Regards

                          Comment

                          • orion
                            Fanatical
                            • Dec 2003
                            • 1750

                            #14
                            Can somebody explain to me why being twice (or thrice) retired is better than once?? Seems odd that retiring then going back to work then retiring again is being made out to be better than retiring once??
                            Hi Kolzee, good point - I don't believe it is better. It's just the second time I had forgotten how boring it actually was. Most things can either be good or bad depending on how you look at it, and what extreme you take it too. A little rest or time off to relax is necessary for rejuvination, but too much rest or time off (retirement for example) degenerates into laziness, apathy and wasting of the brain. Retiring is a goal that many people aim for, or want to get out of the so called rat race, but in reality it's not anywhere near as rewarding as working at something you love doing, or something that challenges you ongoingly. Far better than actually retiring is being in a position that allows you to retire if you had to, or you really wanted to, not the retirement itself. For me now, I have no plans of doing nothing or even very little again until well past my 60's because I love what I do, and as long as I love what I'm doing, I'll keep doing it. I'm now more busy than ever and wouldn't have it any other way.
                            Retiring is one of the most highly over-rated, yet much talked about subjects that I know of.

                            Regards
                            Graeme Fowler
                            Facebook Property Chat Group NZ
                            https://www.facebook.com/groups/340682962758216/

                            Comment

                            • muppet
                              Banned
                              • Sep 2003
                              • 10593

                              #15
                              Hi Guys

                              Orion said:
                              Retiring is one of the most highly over-rated, yet much talked about subjects that I know of.
                              I agree exactly but I am enjoying all the free time I am getting.

                              Regards

                              Comment

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