Auckland Property predictions for 2006

[whitt]

Ok. Heres your chance people to have your say on what you predict the Auckland Property market will do In 2006. In 12 months time ( Sept 06) we can revisit this thread and see how accurate we all were.

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[whitt]

Well I will get the ball rolling. I had considered the option of continued strong growth and AKL imploding but have decided on the following scenario.

-Sept 05 - Nov 05. Stats will come out to show that the market post Election has slowed down considerably (This will be contrary to what agents will say). With generally no growth across majority Akl. Akl CBD taking a hit with slight correction and depressed rental returns.

-Nov 05 - Mar 06. Auckland market will pick up due to summer always being popular. There will be a spike in house growth as Investors who have been waiting in sidelines now re-enter the market.

-April 06 - June 06. The market will begin to tighten due to: Many 2 years fixed mortgages now becoming due and being faced with allot higher rates. Akl CBD correction occurring as prices depress and oncoming build projects online. This will flow on to neighbouring suburbs and ripple out. The Banks will now tighten there borrowing criteria and those that thought they had surplus ability now have it eroded severally.

-Sometime Mar 06 - June 06. There is a strong possibility of an economy correction this could be from many sources but history has shown they normally occur. A crisis, epidemic etc to drive the nail into us when economists lest expect it. Increased cost of living will put a strain on those borderline homeowners and investors.

-June 06 - Sept 06. Now the Auckland property Market will see overpriced and higher end type houses taking a correction to bring them back inline. Average homeowner type property will stagnate as rather than sell people will just stay put and live in them. Decreased immigration and fewer student numbers, higher cost of living (Economy correction) will now be clearly evident. Large spec home suburbs eg Botany/ Flat Bush will grind to a halt as there becomes an oversupply and nobody to purchase.

-Sept 06 – Onwards. Those people who moved to outer suburbs will now in summer be moving back closer in to Akl as rental prices across the board will have corrected by $20 PW and inner suburbs become affordable again with less travel costs. Pukekohe and Papakura's desirability will once again drop as residents who fled high rents will move back to Manukau/ Manurewa too. We will now be well and truely into the AKL property Slump.

[whitt]

Summary Dec 05

Prediction of Sept 05 - Nov 05.

Pretty much as predicted the CBD had started to take a hammering. Some small off the plan apartments now are renting much less eg, Was $350 P/W Now $280 P/W. Values eg. Was $210K Now $135K.
Stats show AKl property growth has slowed.

[whitt]

I forgot about this thread.

Pity others never did predictions too.

Anyhow a few people voted on the poll and the results seem good.

However my predictions seem a whole year off. The market did not flatten as much as i thought it may and there was no big economical disaster occur. Some parts like apartment market I got correct although it was an obvious outcome.