Economic and property outlook for NZ

[OnTheMove]

Managed Funds can be used effectively, especially if you are using your Aussie Super that is lying about, turn it into SMSF then you get the chance to borrow 70% against it. But NOW is not the time for that, Im locking mine down to gold haha.

So in general Managed Funds can be a 15% per annum tool to get to a place to borrow against for PI that isnt above ones risk tolerance in very uncertain times.

Just my 2c, dont listen to me, unqualified no nothing sort :-)

[Don't believe the Hype]

The stupidity of the herd has surprised me more than I thought it would.

Given the lack of any real national news the reporting is an ongoing series of vested interest groups telling their story about how they've been inconvenienced by this situation. Same message different interest group.



Stores might open up but they will operate at a loss. They will soon realise that people are being far more careful about what they spend given they don't know if they have a job. This downward spiral will then spur more concern about job security.


In the building trade there are various POV's on the future - some being bullish with most being cautious.

Tradies that over the past 24 months were very confident about their next job and as a result not providing the service their big/regular customers expect are now being very attentive and calling regularly to find out what work is coming up.

The problem is whilst my little business could keep a dozen or more contractors in enough work to feed their families with Auntie J telling everyone that landlords should lighten the load for tenants I need to be cautious about future rent payments resulting in me not committing work to the dozen tradies that we could do to keep them going and only completing ESSENTIAL work.

[ermat]

The stupidity of the herd has surprised me more than I thought it would.

Given the lack of any real national news the reporting is an ongoing series of vested interest groups telling their story about how they've been inconvenienced by this situation. Same message different interest group.



Stores might open up but they will operate at a loss. They will soon realise that people are being far more careful about what they spend given they don't know if they have a job. This downward spiral will then spur more concern about job security.


In the building trade there are various POV's on the future - some being bullish with most being cautious.

Tradies that over the past 24 months were very confident about their next job and as a result not providing the service their big/regular customers expect are now being very attentive and calling regularly to find out what work is coming up.

The problem is whilst my little business could keep a dozen or more contractors in enough work to feed their families with Auntie J telling everyone that landlords should lighten the load for tenants I need to be cautious about future rent payments resulting in me not committing work to the dozen tradies that we could do to keep them going and only completing ESSENTIAL work.

The Titanic is holed, water is flooding the ship. The deck is still level and above water, the sun is shining. What could possibly go wrong.

[Perry]

Not knowing the right way to re-arrange the deck chairs?

[donna]

I think there could be a mini bounce in sales as people rush to the mall for a bit of retail therapy. The spend will drain the small savings accumulated over the past six weeks so they're back to their comfort zone of living pay packet to pay packet or the next hand out. Labour et al will jump on this bounce saying all is well and they got it right.

cheers,

Donna

[Wayne]

Labour et al will jump on this bounce saying all is well and they got it right.

You overt anti-Labour stance does you no favours.
Labour is not silly enough to believe that this will be over in a week of L2.

[Nick G]

If you want some to see some visceral commentary head over to the comments section on any article at interest.co.nz. It feels like the same group of angry white men have been screaming for a recession to come and wipe the slate clean and now the bad times are here they are absolutely loving it. Must be a great crowd at a party. I like their articles but must remember to stop scrolling down before I get to the screaming horde at the bottom.

I went to Bayfair yesterday and did most of my clothes shopping for this year, 2 T-shirts and a sweater. The place was packed like summer with wildly different approaches by each store to distancing, tracking, sanitizer etc. I hope the virus is contained after all this because there was no attempt by Bayfair to manage flow and keep people apart. How hard would it be to have a left and right lane so you're not dodging people all the time?

Anyway, the problem retail has is that 95% of kiwi adults could probably buy zero new clothes, kitchen stuff, furtniture or electronics for an entire year and get along just fine.

[Nick G]

They only need the payouts to last until the election. Not that National would have done any different.

You overt anti-Labour stance does you no favours.
Labour is not silly enough to believe that this will be over in a week of L2.

[Perry]

They only need the payouts to last until the election.

Or run out seven days beforehand, so socialist Cindy can promise to restore them when / if elected.

What were the stocks like in the Bayfair shops? The few places I've been seem very well stocked.
I suspect that online shopping, incl. click and collect, were not as good as people hoped.

[McDuck]

Anyway, the problem retail has is that 95% of kiwi adults could probably buy zero new clothes, kitchen stuff, furtniture or electronics for an entire year and get along just fine.

yup.
If I find something I like in a store, I usually buy ten.
Often when you go back a year later the price is up or the product no longer available and a cheaper version is in stock.
Go quality, go quantity.

[jack2016]

Implications of massive government borrowing?

The govt has been borrowing tens of billions of dollars over the last few weeks and is set to continue the borrowing.

Is that the right thing to do?

What are the implications of this borrowing on normal people (those outside the top 1% of the wealthy)?

[Wayne]

Or run out seven days beforehand, so socialist Cindy can promise to restore them when / if elected.

You should make that a prediction then hold yourself to account.
Nice throwaway, bull**** line.

[PC]

More tax.
Especially for the hated landlords.
Goodbye middle class.

[JBM]

Give me control of a nation's money and I care not who makes it's laws" — Mayer Amschel Bauer Rothschild

Our brilliant leaders that couldn't run a successive small business are lining up borrowing billions(could well see 150B) from the FED ... we will in turn be at their mercy and their rating agencies .... I guess least it wasn't the Chinese they are going around lending Billions to many nations and getting deals owning many key resources and ports tech etc ..

[Sanya]

The govt has been borrowing tens of billions of dollars over the last few weeks and is set to continue the borrowing.

Is that the right thing to do?

What are the implications of this borrowing on normal people (those outside the top 1% of the wealthy)?

At the moment there is a massive increase in Government debt to fund Government subsidies, benefits and the proposed budget.

At the same time there is a significant decrease in tax revenues due to economic contraction, unemployment and a looming recession.

This is clearly unsustainable.

The implication is that all New Zealanders should expect tax increases, not immediately because that would impede economic recovery, but certainly post-election and medium term. I imagine income tax will increase for higher earners, fuel tax increases will be perpetual, environmental taxes will grow teeth, further reaching multi-national taxation and some form of asset tax.