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  1. #1
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    Default Sir Robert - The Coming Economic Crisis

    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.

  2. #2
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    Default

    So a summary of that in my interpretation....

    Sir Bob is not a Nat lover - but predicted the next Gov't will be National as the election is 6 mths away and the economy will be in a mess and change will be sort to get it sorted.

    While our media love Jacinda - NZ's success with containing COVID-19 is not down to her but our geographical location, small population, and young people go flatting so unlike Spain, Italy etc where there is often 3 or more generations in one household we, Aus and Britain to some extent prefer to go it alone as soon as we can while we're young adults.

    Our average age is a lot lower than most European countries too - Germany have bought theirs down with immigrants.

    Tourism not likely to return to NZ for some time - probably years so low risk of virus spread. But also a BIG loss to the GDP.

    What's going to happen next? SMEs (where most of us are employed) won't just start up again as many have or will soon be broke! 300,000 odd in tourism out of a job and where unemployment could be 10% - it's likely to be much higher could be 25% or more!

    Don't expect a spending spree, if anything good has come from this - people have realised they waste money on stuff they don't need! The takeaways, the new car, clothes, etc. Saving is the new modus operandi to create a 'war chest' (my thoughts).

    Bob also says don't expect a construction boom. People spend on renovations, new homes etc in boom times, not recessions and especially not a 'depression' worse than 1930s depression - (Bob mentioned IMF).

    NO need for the lockdown - it was overkill. Keep old people contained but allow everyone else to work etc.

    Bob never fails to entertain and I love his summary of some key lockdown rules that are really unnecessary - e.g.

    Why can't you lockdown in your holiday home?

    Exercise - only do it within the vicinity of your home - what's the difference if you walk for an hour for a change of scene? And why can't you go swimming? The police are at the beach anyway and roughly one person a week drowns so why stop the masses from taking this form of exercise?

    Stopping small kiwi businesses from opening and selling essential items is pure madness! If you can go and line up at the supermarket or the corner diary you can walk a couple of metres and do likewise at the local butcher or bakery!

    And many more rules copied from Britain's rule book when it's like comparing apples with oranges - we have under 5 million people, UK has 70 million! Yet we're not following them when it comes to keeping the smaller outlets operating they are allowing the newsagents, hardware stores, hairdressers etc open but with rules so WTF we running our businesses into the ground!

    And the most mental of rules - can not visit your GP - and now GPs are looking at ruin too.

    Definitely worth a read.

    cheers,

    Donna
    PropertyTalk Blog - property articles - About PropertyTalk

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  3. #3

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    There will certainly not be a construction boom unless it is government funded infrastructure.
    Free online Property Investment Course from iFindProperty, a residential investment property agency.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Jan 2012
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    1,142

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by donna View Post
    Stopping small kiwi businesses from opening and selling essential items is pure madness! If you can go and line up at the supermarket or the corner diary you can walk a couple of metres and do likewise at the local butcher or bakery!

    And many more rules copied from Britain's rule book when it's like comparing apples with oranges - we have under 5 million people, UK has 70 million! Yet we're not following them when it comes to keeping the smaller outlets operating they are allowing the newsagents, hardware stores, hairdressers etc open but with rules so WTF we running our businesses into the ground!
    Every open door is a risk. Why open 10 doors when one will do? If the argument is "What's good enough for the UK is good enough for us" then have a closer look at their stats.

    They started their lockdown on 23rd March, two days before us. Much looser than ours and even then public bending of the rules is common. Despite starting 2 days before us and assuming their forecast of peaking on the 18th April is correct, they will be over 2 weeks away from getting to where we are now. Their infection per head of population is already 5 times ours with no signs of slowing. Helped with their higher population density of course but no doubt exacerbated by weaker restrictions.
    Last edited by Learning; 14-04-2020 at 04:03 PM.

  5. #5
    Join Date
    May 2004
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    Christchurch
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    Default

    Once it’s in the country our isolation makes no difference unless we do what we are doing. I think if they actually can trace where every last case came from and stamp it out completely then economically it’s still our best bet.
    Though the elephant in the room is how much money countries who do let it go and kill all the old folk are saving on health care and age care in the long run. Haven’t heard any economic forecast mention that but surely it must impact long run projections. Bad taste to mention it.

    Countries where it’s running out of control people naturally self isolate anyway so businesses still suffer. It’s not like they will have normal trading anyway.

  6. #6
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    Default

    It's never going to be stamped out.
    Can't even prevent the common cold and we already have vaccines for that.
    No need anyway - the vast majority barely get a sniffle from it.
    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.

  7. #7
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    Default Sir Robert - Saving The Nation

    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
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    Default

    Commonsense needs to prevail though as we can not be locked up (whoops locked 'down') forever. Going to level 2 isn't allowing us to roam free either. Tight boarder controls and social distancing is the new norm whatever level we're in. Thermal imaging in key areas like airports etc will also make sure sick people are wearing masks etc. Travelling beyond Australia may not be likely this year, but putting Australia in our bubble would definitely help our mutual tourism industries.

    cheers,

    Donna
    PropertyTalk Blog - property articles - About PropertyTalk

    BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here



  9. #9
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    A real live Professor of health (rather than 'what would I know' me) on stamping it out:
    http://www.covidplanb.co.nz/our-post...need-a-plan-b/
    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.

  10. #10
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Location
    Christchurch
    Posts
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    Default

    There is a chance they can stamp it out if they quarantine everyone at the border and manage to trace every new case and quarantine them along with their health workers. Otherwise if any contacts are allowed out for walks and supermarket shopping or home to family they will pass it on.

    The common cold is so widespread obviously that one is out of the bag although they are already seeing way less respiratory illness.


 

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