What will 3 months of lockdown look like?

[donna]

Tried and trusted Bill English and Steven Joyce are supporting the lockdown 'but' believe more needs to be done to ease the pain for small business. If it's okay to visit the supermarket and dairy - why not the butcher or bakery? Plus why are online businesses not allowed to trade? See here for more

My 10 cents worth. The current Gov't needs help easing NZ back to work and as it's unprecedented times they should bring English and Joyce in as advisors better to have them on the inner cycle and using their expertise (sadly lacking in current Gov't) than have them picking holes in the Gov't handling of the crisis.

What do you think?

cheers,

Donna

[Anthonyacat]

What will 3 months of lockdown look like?

This is an excellent idea, and I have no idea why Jacinda and Winston haven't done it already. This is a massive crisis, and cross-party support is widely there already, why not make it official?

By all means keep Bridges out of the discussions - whether you agree with what he says or not, it's important that the leader of the opposition can sit there and whine about government actions. It's his job to 'hold to account' which he can't do if he's a part of the decision making. But English and Joyce would both have valuable insight to provide.

If I can continue my accounting practice from home, and my favourite travel agent can continue hers (albeit reduced by both supply and demand, but not governmental policy), the clear next step seems to be to open up the big online businesses, then small food vendors, then our sorely-missed restaurants and fast food outlets (for contactless delivery only, then for drive through collection). This would send moderate chunks of the country back to work in manageable tranches, keeping the economy moving and money in people's pockets.

[PC]

If it takes up to 14 days for symptoms to appear then 4 weeks should be plenty.
It would be even more effective if people who felt ill could easily get a test.
This insane and stupid over reaction needs to be reversed soon.

[pjdhatt]

I Totally agree with you Donna, It will ease the pressure on Supermarket and small businesses with limit of customers in the store at a time, Max 5 for example.

[Nick G]

Health and education workers have been instructed to prepare for 3 months. Not sure if that is stage 3 or 4. Health workers are affecting some flexibility allowing certain sectors to reopen in a limited fashion, if only to stave off economic collapse.

[brokerman]

Good post and I agree, there needs to be a grater balance out there. Crazy that Countdown can sell wine but the local small business can't....for example!

[Frezzinghot]

If it takes up to 14 days for symptoms to appear then 4 weeks should be plenty.
It would be even more effective if people who felt ill could easily get a test.
This insane and stupid over reaction needs to be reversed soon.

[Frezzinghot]

Good post and I agree, there needs to be a grater balance out there. Crazy that Countdown can sell wine but the local small business can't....for example!

Don't you get it? Its essential, you have to give the countless mums out there going crazy due to lockdown! Need to have some vices!

[hawkeye]

The 4 weeks might work for those who haven’t gone out in that time, but what about the essential workers and the families of essential workers, and people who have been to the supermarket, and teens that jump out their windows in the night to meet up, and their families, and the kava clubs and their contacts, and their contacts contacts.... Half of New Zealand has had contact with other people.

I think there is no chance of getting the number to zero so the best we can hope for is keeping the numbers at current levels so hospitals can cope. It could spring up again anywhere unless nobody in the country contacts anybody for 14 days. This of course is impossible without causing probably more deaths as many elderly people could not survive 14 days without contact and it would mean leaving all sick people from any cause untreated. People would have to stay in their bubbles and if a person has the virus it would have to work through everyone in that bubble until they were recovered with no outside intervention or you have introduced other contacts and have to start again.

This is where the 4 weeks comes from. 2 weeks for the first in the bubble to catch it, then another 2 for everyone else to catch it from them and recover. Even that could fail if the last person doesn’t catch it off the first person but off another member of the bubble later in the cycle. There is not really a way to exit this with no deaths, or at all, until everyone has either had it, or until the vaccine is available.

I can’t see how we can get through this economically with so many unemployed for 18 months or more. Billions of dollars per week is not sustainable and the number of deaths from other causes will rise as health budgets etc have to be cut.

I think a way to wind out of this more quickly would to allow more online contactless small businesses to continue. Often they may have only a couple of people in them , sometimes family members, so if they are all virus free and keeping in their bubbles they could have a bubble merge so they stay in one larger bubble.

Another thing would be to allow younger ages out so long as they weren’t living with older family members. First under 35s like students and young couples and flats with young people. They might be able to keep some businesses limping along and take a bit of pressure off the welfare system. They might help some hospitality businesses keep afloat. Restaurant could be allowed to produce takeaways that can be reheated to kill any virus and delivered if they can be run by under 35 year old staff.

Then schools and daycares could partly open with combined classes and younger teachers for parents in the age group so they can work. Then wait until that wave of illnesses come through. Once that has peaked raise the age to 40 and do it again, then 45, 50, 55 then maybe one year at a time until 60 as hospitalisation increase the older you are.

Decrease the voluntary retirement age to 60 and only pay the pension to 60-65 year olds who aren’t also working. Means testing for the pension including asset testing probably needs to be introduced too for a while unfortunately as this is the obvious place to make reductions to welfare payments that will hurt the least. As no one is going to be travelling overseas for some time and this age group will need to be isolating until the cure or vaccine arrives the need for spending money will be much reduced.

I agree Donna, Bill and Steven would definitely be good to have advising. It would also be good to have a public submissions webpage set up for the public to make suggestions like the tax working group one with a working party reading through all,suggestions to help make policy.

LAJ

[donna]

We'll know this week if the lockdown continues - I suspect areas with no cases may move to level 3 all other areas remain in level 4. But online businesses should be allowed to get back to work, not sure why the Gov't thinks it's okay for NZers to buy online from offshore business but not from NZ businesses - why isn't a journo asking this question? At some stage the risk has to be taken as hawkeye says - the status quo is not sustainable and it will take months for our economy to recover.

So what does Level 3 Lockdown look like?

More freedom of travel - but only within your existing area that has limited community transmission. This means you can drive to the beach or a park. Can you go swimming, surfing, boating? Can you walk a bush trail?

Still working from home and 'some' non essential businesses closed. So Mitre10 open but not your local gym? Who knows!

Only educational facilities affected closed so local schools to reopen.

But probably Level 3 may have revised conditions too.

cheers,

Donna

[sidinz]

Only educational facilities affected closed so local schools to reopen.

Schools are currently gearing up to teach via distance for Term 2. Needs assessments have been done to figure out what technology teachers already have at home, what they need to have provided for them and what upskilling they need to operate it. Just today I was asked to confirm my delivery address, so clearly a 'care package' is on its way to me that will allow me to teach from home via videoconferencing.

All student families have also been asked about their access to technology and solutions are being rolled out for those families who don't have it.
Even if it ends up not being for the whole twelve weeks of term 2, there is no way they'd go to that sort of trouble and expense for the week between the revised school holidays finishing and the lockdown coming to an end. Kids at home will be a thing for a while, with the concomitant disruption for working parents.

If the schools are going to remain closed for an extended period, there will be other restrictions still in place, too.

[artemis]

I would say the online resources will continue for a while even if schools go back. Useful to have a range of approved resources to take pressure off teachers in a shortage.

The devices to be handed out will belong to the Ministry / school not to the pupil, and often hear schools say they need a stock for pupils that don't have their own.

(In recent years some 'tertiary' courses signed up students and gave them free devices to own even if they dropped out in week 2. Very dodgy. One of ours did a tradie foundation course - no free device though - and only 4 of more than 20 completed. Some dropped out in week 1 believe it or not. Most of the attendees were sent by WINZ as a condition of getting jobseeker benefit.)

[artemis]

.....It would also be good to have a public submissions webpage set up for the public to make suggestions like the tax working group one with a working party reading through all,suggestions to help make policy.

LAJ

Excellent post but just on that last point. Until / unless there is a place for submissions, questions can be posted to the Chair or members of the the Epidemic Response Committee. It is a Select Committee so a lot of clout. Either on Simon Bridges Facebook page or to other members, listed there.

This week they had business people fronting up, including the Road Transport Association CEO. He made the excellent point that the trucks are on the road anyway, contactless deliveries and maybe travelling almost empty so why not encourage online businesses. The point you made.

[Beano]

A level 4 extension to three months will mean half of my tenants will close shop and IRD tax take will be well down!

[donna]

I've just read the the WHO has sanctioned the reopening of the wet-markets in China - including the one that supposed to be the source of COVID-19. The timing couldn't be worse for the WHO.

No sale of lifestock but life crays are okay - and I didn't know NZ ships tonnes of live crayfish to China - ending up in these wet markets (?)

cheers,

Donna