Kiwisaver

[Frezzinghot]

With the stockmarket crashing, what is everyone doing with their kiwisaver? I pay just on $200 a month to the account and am thinking of pulling this out and paying this amount down on my PPOR. If the stockmarket is going to fall further what is the point of giving this money away!

FH

[Anthonyacat]

If you know the stockmarket is going to fall, pull all your money out of it, and find a way to place futures in your favour!

But... do you know the stockmarket is going to fall?

Because it's been climbing all week...

My Simplicity portfolio is up over 10% since the 23rd of March.

Sure, even with those gains it's still down 15% since the 1st of Feb, and down 3% since April 2019.

But other than the stockmarket, can you think of anything that you want to buy LESS of when the price goes down? If basically anything else in your life got 25% cheaper overnight, you'd be rushing to buy some while it's on sale! Wouldn't you?

[Frezzinghot]

Dead cat bounce maybe? Im just thinking its time to take control of your own money and get rid of debt as quickly as possible, having to face this type of crisis again with debt is just madness. And history will defiantly be repeated.

The scary thing is just how quick the government closed not only this country but many others down in such a short space of time! Almost in a new york minute! The sooner I am free from this enslavement the better, but one thing this lockdown has taught me is were we really free in the first place. I used to think so...

[Anthonyacat]

Agree, history will be repeated for sure. But that's a good thing for investors.

Taking the S&P500 as a base (because thats where the data is, and most growth funds will be fairly exposed to the big US companies):

Biggest drops:
From Oct 2007 high to Mar 2009 low: 56.4%
From Aug 1987 high to Dec 1987 low: 33.5%
From Nov 1980 high to Aug 1982 low: 27.8%
From Sep 1929 high to Jun 1932 low: 86.1%

But... If you look at the period from 2 years before to 5 years after you get:
From 2005 to 2014: Total growth 93.7% - despite the GFC
From 1985 to 1992: Total growth 178% - despite "Black Friday" of the 80s
From 1978 to 1987: Total growth 347.51% - despite the early 1980s stagflation
From 1927 to 1937: Total growth 73.45% - yeah, despite the great depression!


I can't easily get the figures from just after the big drop, but by definition buying when things are cheaper would make your growth significantly higher than the above figures.

... Where is the data to show that the stockmarket is crashing and will continue to crash forever, or that people who bail after a drop end up doing well out of it?

I'd place a very large wager that the global stockmarket will be significantly higher in 5 years time than it is today. A lower but still significant wager that it'll be higher than it was a month ago before the crash.


EDIT: Sources

http://www.nbcnews.com/id/37740147/ns/business-stocks_and_economy/t/historic-bear-markets/#.XoL5KogzZhF

https://thume.ca/indexView/#

That second one is a lot of fun to play with.

[klauster]

The scary thing is just how quick the government closed not only this country but many others down in such a short space of time! Almost in a new york minute! The sooner I am free from this enslavement the better, but one thing this lockdown has taught me is were we really free in the first place. I used to think so...

Everything you hand over to somebody – your risk of losing it like freedom.
Self-managed assets hedging you against inflation.
During recovery from over-spending.. guess who pays the bill.

[klauster]

I'd place a very large wager that the global stockmarket will be significantly higher in 5 years time than it is today. A lower but still significant wager that it'll be higher than it was a month ago before the crash.

Yes, the deeper the drop the higher the margins for global payers of the stockmarket – but for these profits, who are the losers paying that? Have you noticed when millionairs get easily born?