Covid-19 Economic & General Effects for PIs & PMs

[Chris W]

I ask you both . . .

In a nutshell, what is it that absoluteproperty learned from the book, that was significantly different to (and changed?) what he knew, already?

In a nutshell again, what is the risk (singular or plural) that most PIs are (or have been) unaware of?

Perry,

No idea what absoluteproperty knows or does not know, so unable to comment.

Best is for you to read the book suggestion by Nick so that you get the points for yourself and you can then clarify your own understanding. The book is free, and since we're in lockdown, there is some free time.

[Perry]

Not an especially helpful response.

I asked what - in a nutshell - was to be learned from the book? Absoluteproperty replied.

And again - in a nutshell - what is the risk (singular or plural) that most PIs are (or have been) unaware of? (That you and WINZ have been stressing.)

[Nick G]

If you're an introvert try reading Quiet, by Susan Cain. Game changer for me.

[Sanya]

This is what WINZ & I have been highlighting for several years.

Most property investors have been unaware of this risk.

I'm new here. What is the risk that most property investors are unaware of?

[mrsaneperson]

Rents are protected for now with the govt subsidy handouts , so far for tenants and landlords. But its anyone's guess how long can this last .
That could be the clincher for anyone with substantial loans . Then combine this with the ""no eviction during covid 19"" death sentence handed out to landlords trying to protect against further loss. Combine this with crazy ideas from the chief executive of Kiwibank in "Helicopter money" - your taxes handed out to everyone to somehow kickstart a dead economy. Truly we are seeing the insanity of socialism that bankrupted Venezuela..That country was run on oil revenue , when barrels of oil dropped from $110usd to $30usd per barrel , the socialist govt kept all its welfare and expenditure programs running at full tilt . Ultimately when there was no money left , riots took to the streets and the resultant mess is what you see now.
Right now our citizens are sitting comfortably on their govt subsidies - perhaps , well not perhaps, but certainly this is the overriding factor why we have had such a gullible complying and complicit public in the lockdown obedience. Without the govt subsidy handouts there would have been mass opposition to the stasi like medical martial law imposed upon us. Very few will be buying houses in uncertain times like these.

The media has been all about covid19 the virus itself but ive read little on how badly the whole economy is affected. Only how glorious and triumphant comrade Jacinda has been in leading and protecting the nation. On her fb page you can read the masses amount of adoring fan mail , ""shes so kind"", ""loving PM, thank you for caring for us"" . One person even wrote a Herald ""letter to the editor"" suggesting folks should order a photograph of her from one of the Herald news article shots a while back , and then hang the photo on your living room wall . I'm staggered to believe we've become such a braindead nation when reading these sickly accolades.

And what of the economy in the aftermath?
Tourism is a dead duck for starters, probably for at least a year , doubt if that industry will receive an injection of $50 Million like the govt has provided for TVNZ, its own propaganda ministry, which it badly needs to keep brainwashing the sleeping masses..

[flyernzl]

I give mass international tourism at least 10 years to recover, if ever.
'Peak Oil' (now never mentioned) may well have been replaced by 'Peak Tourism'.

[Don't believe the Hype]

There certainly does seem to be an ongoing theme amongst the articles being put forward by the donation led media...

there is a bill... it's my bill but i'm astounded that I've been asked to pay it... I agree it needs to be paid but someone else should pay the bill

example below from 'stuffed' talking about a holding fee for student accom - recognising there is a cost to hold the accom but she shouldn't have to pay

She supported Residential Advisors and cleaners being paid but believed that money should come from the university pool, or even out of the salary of Vice-Chancellor Grant Guilford who earned $587,000 in 2019, according to the State Services Commission.

[Don't believe the Hype]

someone else should pay they scream...

We send our kids to the most expensive education facilities but even we shouldn't pay!! but when it comes to sending kids back to school and the school has no money to maintain grounds, pay staff etc these same people will scream... we want better service that we're getting.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121172283/parents-criticise-private-school-for-charging-same-fees-while-taking-wage-subsidy

what has shocked me through this period is the level of living pay cheque to pay cheque in our society... it's often something we think happens only on low income - it is becoming obvious that it is not just a low income problem

This situation - covid19 - is going to expose the fact that many are living lifestyles they can't afford. The standard of living is going to come crashing down to a level people can sustain. Which is something I've said a number of times across many threads when talking about 'the housing crisis' - it isn't a housing crisis it's an expectation crisis.

We now have a spread of the expectation crisis... instead of putting funds into a rainy day fund people pimped their houses, their cars and their lifestyles to the point that missing one month's pay cheque has resulted in their house of cards coming tumbling down.

The real pain will come with the realisation that you don't deserve the lifestyle you were living and no-one owes you anything.

[flyernzl]

Agreed.

A friend of mine used to be a Financial Advisor.

His main client base turned out to be high-living professionals who had all the toys - Merc, jetskis, Harleys - but had financed them by upping the mortgage on their own home each time its value had increased.

Despite outward appearances, they were living very very close to the financial edge.

[Frezzinghot]

Rents are protected for now with the govt subsidy handouts , so far for tenants and landlords. But its anyone's guess how long can this last .
That could be the clincher for anyone with substantial loans . Then combine this with the ""no eviction during covid 19"" death sentence handed out to landlords trying to protect against further loss. Combine this with crazy ideas from the chief executive of Kiwibank in "Helicopter money" - your taxes handed out to everyone to somehow kickstart a dead economy. Truly we are seeing the insanity of socialism that bankrupted Venezuela..That country was run on oil revenue , when barrels of oil dropped from $110usd to $30usd per barrel , the socialist govt kept all its welfare and expenditure programs running at full tilt . Ultimately when there was no money left , riots took to the streets and the resultant mess is what you see now.
Right now our citizens are sitting comfortably on their govt subsidies - perhaps , well not perhaps, but certainly this is the overriding factor why we have had such a gullible complying and complicit public in the lockdown obedience. Without the govt subsidy handouts there would have been mass opposition to the stasi like medical martial law imposed upon us. Very few will be buying houses in uncertain times like these.

The media has been all about covid19 the virus itself but ive read little on how badly the whole economy is affected. Only how glorious and triumphant comrade Jacinda has been in leading and protecting the nation. On her fb page you can read the masses amount of adoring fan mail , ""shes so kind"", ""loving PM, thank you for caring for us"" . One person even wrote a Herald ""letter to the editor"" suggesting folks should order a photograph of her from one of the Herald news article shots a while back , and then hang the photo on your living room wall . I'm staggered to believe we've become such a braindead nation when reading these sickly accolades.

And what of the economy in the aftermath?
Tourism is a dead duck for starters, probably for at least a year , doubt if that industry will receive an injection of $50 Million like the govt has provided for TVNZ, its own propaganda ministry, which it badly needs to keep brainwashing the sleeping masses..

The public is is trouble when fools idolise the Mother Teresa, for those awake it is unbelievable to watch. BUT a lot of people are starting to realise her act. We should always be wiling to express our freedom of speech which is being attacked daily if we speak out against this tyranny!

[Frezzinghot]

The latest post by Bob Jones:


The bold court actions by some Aucklanders against the Prime Minister and other government officials, seeking a writ of habeas corpus, were always doomed to failure.
For the cold hard fact was the ill-considered lock-down was legal. Thus we were subject to the imposition of a Police state with elements of the worst of North Korea and other historic dictatorships, not even matched in wartime.
As the Australian Prime Minister pointed out, we have not one but two crises to deal with, namely a health issue and an economic concern. That’s a tricky balancing act which the Aussies have tackled, ironically still only incurring a similar death toll on a population basis to us.
Australia will still suffer a deep recession. We will have a 1930s type depression which will bring in its wake a health crisis far worst than coronavirus, killer of the old and infirm.
Depression, suicides, family violence and despair lie ahead.
New Zealand had a huge opportunity to minimise all of that for the reasons I’ve previously outlined.
For by the time the virus reached our shores we knew from the evidence elsewhere who it killed and why. Instead, the government acted as if it could kill us all, in the process damaging the economy and pushing us into at the least, a five year depression.
The goal should have been to get people back to work, publicise the spacing and insist on face masks.
More people would have copped the virus but in the vast majority of cases, as the evidence abroad shows, been back on deck in a week.
Even restaurants could have opened by having a bowl of warm water and soap on a table at their entrance with a pile of towels. Diners would wash their hands-on arrival and departure.
Each table could be surrounded by screens and confined to say groups of no more than four.
Instead a blanket ban destroyed I’ll wager, 60% of family businesses, their owners have put passion and long hours into building.
I could go on with numerous other examples but my salient point is this. We must never again allow a situation where the law allows a young woman with much charm and little real world experience, to legally take such dictatorial powers.
The current legislation needs to be reconsidered in Parliament. While it’s conceivable situations could arise in the future requiring such a heavy-handed approach, the supporting legislation should require say a 75% Parliamentary vote.
Had that existed there would have been sufficient pragmatists in the Opposition plus NZ First that would have prevented the disaster we have lying ahead.
The Prime Minister’s partner spoke out in her defence a week back, accusing critics of an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff approach.
That would be valid if we were solely dealing with a health crisis. But we’re not, thus the reality is that the government is at the top of the cliff, pushing everyone over. It’s been a catastrophic misjudgement.

[Perry]

I'm new here. What is the risk that most property investors are unaware of?

Dodgy predictions would be my guess.

The effects will vary so much, from place-to-place. Queenstown being a special case example.

Queenstown property market flooded with rentals, big drop in values likely
27 Apr 2020

Queenstown's previously strained rental market is [reversing as it's] being flooded with new properties and a big dip in property values is predicted. The number of Queenstown rental property listings on Trade Me jumped about 80 per cent from February to March as Covid-19 led to the international visitor market shutting down. The announcement that New Zealand will move to level three next week further prompted the number of listed rentals to swell on social media and in local publications. Economist Benje Patterson said the shift was driven by tenants doing "runners" as the tourism industry shut down and LLs pulling their property from the visitor accommodation market into long term rentals.

It's oft been said that the gummint is the biggest LL in the country.

I suspect the present lock-down will mean the gummint will also be the biggest surrogate tenant in the country.

[Wayne]

what has shocked me through this period is the level of living pay cheque to pay cheque in our society... it's often something we think happens only on low income - it is becoming obvious that it is not just a low income problem

Where have you been?
I'm shocked that you have been so out of touch with the real economy that you suddenly learnt this.

[Andrew]

Thanks to everyone who took part in the NZPIF survey on how rental property owners where being affected by the Covid-19 lockdown. There were some interesting results.

After week one, the majority of respondents were pretty unaffected. 85.6% had no change with their rentals.

Around 3.5% of rentals were empty at lookdown, with the expectation that they couldn’t be rented out till after lockdown.

landlords provided rent decreases to around 5% of their tenants and deferred rental payments for a further 2%.

A little over 2% of tenants stopped paying their rent without contacting the landlord and around 1% abandoned their rental.

Unfortunately there was some confusion around how to answer some of the questions, which meant that we were unable to accurately tell how landlords situations changed over the nearly five weeks of lockdown. However it appeared that the number of rent reductions and deferrals slowly increased, but not to a large degree, which was good.

The average rent deduction was $246 per week, or a 49% reduction.

45% of landlords were affected by the Government decision to ban rent increases. Of those affected, 58% had already given tenants a rent increase notice and 42% were going to.

Possibly the most interesting result from the survey was how rental providers other income was affected by the lockdown. While the general public may have an impression of rental property owners being independently wealthy people earning high incomes from multiple debt free properties, this isn’t the case.

Of those respondents who have a main source of income separate from rental income, 56% of them had lost either some or all of that income.

Of those whose main source of income had been affected by the lockdown, 42% had lost part of their income and 58% had lost all of their income.

A majority of those who lost all of their income, 65%, were able to claim government assistance, however 35% could not.

This result showed that rental property owners had been affected by the lockdown just as much as other members of the general public. This made the suggestion that tenants should not have to pay their rent either ignorant or callous.

Government have been made aware of the results.

Thanks again to all those who took part.

[Don't believe the Hype]

Where have you been?
I'm shocked that you have been so out of touch with the real economy that you suddenly learnt this.

maybe you're right -

I guess I grew up in a house that taught
1- responsibility for one's actions
2 - the difference between needs and wants.

Both basic concepts but if not taught I guess you don't even think about it.