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  1. #1
    Join Date
    Dec 2007
    Location
    Vienna, Austria
    Posts
    2,663

    Default Covid-19 Economic & General Effects for PIs & PMs

    I'm an expat living in Europe. Just read the news about the restrictions on visitors. It reads as if its going to be a huge economic shock to New Zealand. I wish all you guys well and hope the gvt does something substantive to help all areas of the economy( not just tourism). I think in this case no one is insulated from the economic repercussions. I have no idea how it will effect property investors... but I suspect there will be negative effects
    The mission of any business enterprise should include the aim to develop economic conditions rather than simply react to them.

  2. #2

    Default

    Maybe I would be worried living in Europe at the moment.
    Every property investor would know positive effects of owning assets like land, commercials, housing.. compared with inflationary currencies… especially in difficult times.

    Now is the time for socialists to shine building the foundation for a sustainable domestic economy with jobs to balance the import/export dictated economy.

    And by the way, we created vegetable gardens and planted fruit trees in all our rental properties as it is common in Europe. But guess who does the maintenance and harvesting. Tenants don’t pick fallen fruits etc, they buy the expensive fruits in the supermarkets – no one seems to be concerned.

  3. #3
    Join Date
    May 2004
    Posts
    2,901

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Austrokiwi View Post
    I'm an expat living in Europe. Just read the news about the restrictions on visitors. It reads as if its going to be a huge economic shock to New Zealand. I wish all you guys well and hope the gvt does something substantive to help all areas of the economy( not just tourism). I think in this case no one is insulated from the economic repercussions. I have no idea how it will effect property investors... but I suspect there will be negative effects
    Property values / valuations might drop but those keeping rentals should be fine. There is still a rental shortage here and rents continue to rise due to the shortage and rising costs, compliance and risk.

    I would say there will be some adjustment between rental supply and demand, and that might impact rents. But with people staying and people not entering that adjustment might be quite small. In any case if people can't pay their rent or mortgage the government will be stepping in for the time being to stop evictions and mortgagee sales.

  4. #4
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,422

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Austrokiwi View Post
    I have no idea how it will effect property investors... but I suspect there will be negative effects
    Nice to see you back, Austro.

    I suspect that the effects on PIs will be diverse, depending on location and LVR.

    The ability to pay rent by laid-off tourism staff and their colleagues in related industries is likely to be significant. The knock-on effect will be slower, including wholesalers and retailers which run low on stocks of imported items.

    Shipping is something that does not seem to have had much mention. If the ships which are supposed to be exporting NZ's apple harvest are tied up, stuck in a port, waiting to be [un]loaded by Chairman Mao's mates, they can't come to NZ to take our harvest produce away to markets in the northern hemisphere. That would create a significant bottleneck.

    The NZ socio-commies might have to back off the infrastructure election year lolly scramble and use that money for other (emergency economy rescue) purposes.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  5. #5
    Join Date
    Sep 2007
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    8,447

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Perry View Post
    Nice to see you back, Austro.

    I suspect that the effects on PIs will be diverse, depending on location and LVR.

    The ability to pay rent by laid-off tourism staff and their colleagues in related industries is likely to be significant. The knock-on effect will be slower, including wholesalers and retailers which run low on stocks of imported items.

    Shipping is something that does not seem to have had much mention. If the ships which are supposed to be exporting NZ's apple harvest are tied up, stuck in a port, waiting to be [un]loaded by Chairman Mao's mates, they can't come to NZ to take our harvest produce away to markets in the northern hemisphere. That would create a significant bottleneck.

    The NZ socio-commies might have to back off the infrastructure election year lolly scramble and use that money for other (emergency economy rescue) purposes.
    Shipping/Aviation/imports/exports all exempt Perry.
    Squadly dinky do!

  6. #6
    Join Date
    Feb 2013
    Posts
    386

    Default

    Housing market
    What do you reckon ?
    might be a lag for a few months until as things evolve.

    could go either way - surge will come to a halt due to uncertainly and volatility or

    Few (Cashed up) will be pouring back in - seen as a safe bet and falling interest rates

  7. #7
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,422

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Davo36 View Post
    Shipping/Aviation/imports/exports all exempt Perry.
    I've not expressed myself well. Exemptions are not involved / the problem.

    It's the scheduling of cargo ship movements around the world.

    If the good ship Lollipop is scheduled to take a cargo of apples from Napier to Antwerp in April 2020, but it can't because it's stuck in Shanghai or
    Shenzhen, the flow-on effects will not be pretty.

    Then there's the kiwifruit coming, soon, too.

  8. #8
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,422

    Default

    Sobering Observations from Abroad
    I am writing to you from Bergamo, Italy, at the heart of the coronavirus crisis. The news media in the US has not captured the severity of what is happening here. I am writing this post because each of you, today, not the government, not the school district, not the mayor, each individual citizen has the chance, today to take actions that will deter the Italian situation from becoming your own country’s reality. The only way to stop this virus is to limit contagion. And the only way to limit contagion is for millions of people to change their behavior today.

    If you are in Europe or the US you are weeks away from where we are today in Italy.

    I can hear you now. “It’s just a flu. It only affects old people with preconditions”

    There are 2 reasons why Coronavirus has brought Italy to it’s knees. First it is a flu is devastating when people get really sick they need weeks of ICU – and, second, because of how fast and effectively it spreads. There is 2 week incubation period and many who have it never show symptoms.

    When Prime Minister Conte announced last night that the entire country, 60 million people, would go on lock down, the line that struck me most was “there is no more time.” Because to be clear, this national lock down, is a hail mary. What he means is that if the numbers of contagion do not start to go down, the system, Italy, will collapse.

    Why? Today the ICUs in Lombardy are at capacity – more than capacity. They have begun to put ICU units in the hallways. If the numbers do not go down, the growth rate of contagion tells us that there will be thousands of people who in a matter of a week? two weeks? who will need care. What will happen when there are 100, or a 1000 people who need the hospital and only a few ICU places left?

    On Monday a doctor wrote in the paper that they have begun to have to decide who lives and who dies when the patients show up in the emergency room, like what is done in war. This will only get worse.

    There are a finite number of drs, nurses, medical staff and they are getting the virus. They have also been working non-stop, non-stop for days and days. What happens when the drs, nurses and medical staff are simply not able to care for the patients, when they are not there?

    And finally for those who say that this is just something that happens to old people, starting yesterday the hospitals are reporting that younger and younger patients – 40, 45, 18, are coming in for treatment.

    You have a chance to make a difference and stop the spread in your country. Push for the entire office to work at home today, cancel birthday parties, and other gatherings, stay home as much as you can. If you have a fever, any fever, stay home. Push for school closures, now. Anything you can do to stop the spread, because it is spreading in your communities – there is a two week incubation period – and if you do these things now you can buy your medical system time.

    And for those who say it is not possible to close the schools, and do all these other things, locking down Italy was beyond anyone’s imagination a week ago.

    Soon you will not have a choice, so do what you can now.

  9. #9
    Join Date
    Feb 2015
    Posts
    140

    Default

    So will "overpriced " property be open to 'cashed' up buyers for a deal ? Vendor's price expectations are at a high level but with all the virus lock downs/market crashes/and the certain impending "Recession" showing up, will buyer's place their plans in a holding pattern??

  10. #10
    Join Date
    Apr 2004
    Location
    Auckland
    Posts
    2,017

    Default

    Our greatest economist - Eaqud - is predicting a deep dark recession. So that’s a relief. With his track record of successful calls it’ll probably be over by next week.
    The three most harmful addictions are heroin, carbohydrates and a monthly salary - Fred Wilson.


 

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