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  1. #191
    Join Date
    Jan 2014
    Posts
    1,058

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    The latest post by Bob Jones:


    The bold court actions by some Aucklanders against the Prime Minister and other government officials, seeking a writ of habeas corpus, were always doomed to failure.
    For the cold hard fact was the ill-considered lock-down was legal. Thus we were subject to the imposition of a Police state with elements of the worst of North Korea and other historic dictatorships, not even matched in wartime.
    As the Australian Prime Minister pointed out, we have not one but two crises to deal with, namely a health issue and an economic concern. That’s a tricky balancing act which the Aussies have tackled, ironically still only incurring a similar death toll on a population basis to us.
    Australia will still suffer a deep recession. We will have a 1930s type depression which will bring in its wake a health crisis far worst than coronavirus, killer of the old and infirm.
    Depression, suicides, family violence and despair lie ahead.
    New Zealand had a huge opportunity to minimise all of that for the reasons I’ve previously outlined.
    For by the time the virus reached our shores we knew from the evidence elsewhere who it killed and why. Instead, the government acted as if it could kill us all, in the process damaging the economy and pushing us into at the least, a five year depression.
    The goal should have been to get people back to work, publicise the spacing and insist on face masks.
    More people would have copped the virus but in the vast majority of cases, as the evidence abroad shows, been back on deck in a week.
    Even restaurants could have opened by having a bowl of warm water and soap on a table at their entrance with a pile of towels. Diners would wash their hands-on arrival and departure.
    Each table could be surrounded by screens and confined to say groups of no more than four.
    Instead a blanket ban destroyed I’ll wager, 60% of family businesses, their owners have put passion and long hours into building.
    I could go on with numerous other examples but my salient point is this. We must never again allow a situation where the law allows a young woman with much charm and little real world experience, to legally take such dictatorial powers.
    The current legislation needs to be reconsidered in Parliament. While it’s conceivable situations could arise in the future requiring such a heavy-handed approach, the supporting legislation should require say a 75% Parliamentary vote.
    Had that existed there would have been sufficient pragmatists in the Opposition plus NZ First that would have prevented the disaster we have lying ahead.
    The Prime Minister’s partner spoke out in her defence a week back, accusing critics of an ambulance at the bottom of the cliff approach.
    That would be valid if we were solely dealing with a health crisis. But we’re not, thus the reality is that the government is at the top of the cliff, pushing everyone over. It’s been a catastrophic misjudgement.
    "Remember, people will judge you by your actions,not your intentions.You may have a heart of gold -but so does a hard-boiled egg".

  2. #192
    Join Date
    Sep 2004
    Location
    Hastings
    Posts
    15,531

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Sanya View Post
    I'm new here. What is the risk that most property investors are unaware of?
    Dodgy predictions would be my guess.

    The effects will vary so much, from place-to-place. Queenstown being a special case example.

    Queenstown property market flooded with rentals, big drop in values likely
    27 Apr 2020

    Quote Originally Posted by Stuff
    Queenstown's previously strained rental market is [reversing as it's] being flooded with new properties and a big dip in property values is predicted. The number of Queenstown rental property listings on Trade Me jumped about 80 per cent from February to March as Covid-19 led to the international visitor market shutting down. The announcement that New Zealand will move to level three next week further prompted the number of listed rentals to swell on social media and in local publications. Economist Benje Patterson said the shift was driven by tenants doing "runners" as the tourism industry shut down and LLs pulling their property from the visitor accommodation market into long term rentals.
    It's oft been said that the gummint is the biggest LL in the country.

    I suspect the present lock-down will mean the gummint will also be the biggest surrogate tenant in the country.
    Want a great looking concrete swimming pool in Hawke's Bay? Designer Pools will do the job for you!

  3. #193
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    10,642

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    what has shocked me through this period is the level of living pay cheque to pay cheque in our society... it's often something we think happens only on low income - it is becoming obvious that it is not just a low income problem
    Where have you been?
    I'm shocked that you have been so out of touch with the real economy that you suddenly learnt this.

  4. #194
    Join Date
    Dec 2003
    Location
    Auckland, New Zealand
    Posts
    114

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    Thanks to everyone who took part in the NZPIF survey on how rental property owners where being affected by the Covid-19 lockdown. There were some interesting results.

    After week one, the majority of respondents were pretty unaffected. 85.6% had no change with their rentals.

    Around 3.5% of rentals were empty at lookdown, with the expectation that they couldn’t be rented out till after lockdown.

    landlords provided rent decreases to around 5% of their tenants and deferred rental payments for a further 2%.

    A little over 2% of tenants stopped paying their rent without contacting the landlord and around 1% abandoned their rental.

    Unfortunately there was some confusion around how to answer some of the questions, which meant that we were unable to accurately tell how landlords situations changed over the nearly five weeks of lockdown. However it appeared that the number of rent reductions and deferrals slowly increased, but not to a large degree, which was good.

    The average rent deduction was $246 per week, or a 49% reduction.

    45% of landlords were affected by the Government decision to ban rent increases. Of those affected, 58% had already given tenants a rent increase notice and 42% were going to.

    Possibly the most interesting result from the survey was how rental providers other income was affected by the lockdown. While the general public may have an impression of rental property owners being independently wealthy people earning high incomes from multiple debt free properties, this isn’t the case.

    Of those respondents who have a main source of income separate from rental income, 56% of them had lost either some or all of that income.

    Of those whose main source of income had been affected by the lockdown, 42% had lost part of their income and 58% had lost all of their income.

    A majority of those who lost all of their income, 65%, were able to claim government assistance, however 35% could not.

    This result showed that rental property owners had been affected by the lockdown just as much as other members of the general public. This made the suggestion that tenants should not have to pay their rent either ignorant or callous.

    Government have been made aware of the results.

    Thanks again to all those who took part.
    Andrew King,
    Too many tenants in your property? Hire a sleepout from Cabin King and increase the rent
    NZ Property Investors' Federation

  5. #195

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    Where have you been?
    I'm shocked that you have been so out of touch with the real economy that you suddenly learnt this.
    maybe you're right -

    I guess I grew up in a house that taught
    1- responsibility for one's actions
    2 - the difference between needs and wants.

    Both basic concepts but if not taught I guess you don't even think about it.

  6. #196

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    Wayne - my question (or shock) goes to more than just people who spend on flashy cars and watches etc... it extends to so called property investors who after a few weeks of the rent not being paid are squeeling about not being able to pay the bills.

    If you're a wage earner living pay cheque to pay cheque that is no different to a business owner who can't make rent/payroll because of a one month business interruption or a property investor who can't pay the bills (mortgage/rates/insurance etc) after no rent for a month or so.

  7. #197
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    10,642

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    Wayne - my question (or shock) goes to more than just people who spend on flashy cars and watches etc... it extends to so called property investors who after a few weeks of the rent not being paid are squeeling about not being able to pay the bills.

    If you're a wage earner living pay cheque to pay cheque that is no different to a business owner who can't make rent/payroll because of a one month business interruption or a property investor who can't pay the bills (mortgage/rates/insurance etc) after no rent for a month or so.
    I'm not surprised by the PIs either - they generally expect this to be all about them. They should come through this with no impact.

    Not all the wage earners living from payday to payday are using the money on wants (except they want to be able to eat and pay the rent).
    There are a lot of people out there earning very little - we have low wages in a lot of areas of the economy (hense the need for 'working for family' tax credits).
    You last bit sounds like Dr Deborah Russell

  8. #198
    Join Date
    Aug 2003
    Posts
    7,898

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    someone else should pay they scream...

    We send our kids to the most expensive education facilities but even we shouldn't pay!! but when it comes to sending kids back to school and the school has no money to maintain grounds, pay staff etc these same people will scream... we want better service that we're getting.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/121...g-wage-subsidy


    what has shocked me through this period is the level of living pay cheque to pay cheque in our society... it's often something we think happens only on low income - it is becoming obvious that it is not just a low income problem

    This situation - covid19 - is going to expose the fact that many are living lifestyles they can't afford. The standard of living is going to come crashing down to a level people can sustain. Which is something I've said a number of times across many threads when talking about 'the housing crisis' - it isn't a housing crisis it's an expectation crisis.

    We now have a spread of the expectation crisis... instead of putting funds into a rainy day fund people pimped their houses, their cars and their lifestyles to the point that missing one month's pay cheque has resulted in their house of cards coming tumbling down.

    The real pain will come with the realisation that you don't deserve the lifestyle you were living and no-one owes you anything.
    Yes agreed, and yet nothing changes as we're all encouraged to get out and spend what we don't have.....to keep our hospitality and retail businesses afloat.

    What actually amazes me is the obsession with 'takeaways'. A neighbour told me a takeway meal for them is over $100 and it's at least a weekly ritual. They do have in total 7 mouths to feed at the moment as they've got a couple of exchange students. But, takeaways are weekly ritual for a lot of us - also the run on McDonalds etc after leve 4. It's the equivalent of the 'smashed avocado on toast' for a large number of the population. No savings, yet can still afford to visit maccas a few times a week. Also the run on takeaway coffee now we're in level 3 - and many saying they've had to put up with bad coffee - why? They could just get a coffee machine! Is it just me or is this just all wrong!

    Maybe we have the too many of the wrong types of business! A lot has to change.

    cheers,

    Donna
    PropertyTalk Blog - property articles - About PropertyTalk

    BusinessBlogs - the best business articles are found here



  9. #199

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    Quote Originally Posted by Wayne View Post
    I'm not surprised by the PIs either - they generally expect this to be all about them. They should come through this with no impact.

    Not all the wage earners living from payday to payday are using the money on wants (except they want to be able to eat and pay the rent).
    There are a lot of people out there earning very little - we have low wages in a lot of areas of the economy (hense the need for 'working for family' tax credits).
    You last bit sounds like Dr Deborah Russell
    'There are a lot of people out there earning very little' - These aren't the people I'm surprised by it is the ones who earn quite a lot living week to week that do surprise me.

    Sounds a bit like Dr Deborah Russell - the problem these days is anyone who doesn't follow the populist line of thinking gets told to pull their heads in!

    The reality is many 'business owners' actually don't own a business... they've work for themselves which comes with risks...

    Working for yourself and owning a business are not the same thing

  10. #200
    Join Date
    Jun 2004
    Posts
    10,642

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    Quote Originally Posted by Don't believe the Hype View Post
    'There are a lot of people out there earning very little' - These aren't the people I'm surprised by it is the ones who earn quite a lot living week to week that do surprise me.

    Sounds a bit like Dr Deborah Russell - the problem these days is anyone who doesn't follow the populist line of thinking gets told to pull their heads in!

    The reality is many 'business owners' actually don't own a business... they've work for themselves which comes with risks...

    Working for yourself and owning a business are not the same thing
    The thing about some people who earn a lot is that they spend a lot also.
    They think they are richer than they really are so 'deserve' a certain lifestyle.
    Those on $30k/yr know they are poor. Those on $200k know they are rich. It's the ones inbetween (say $120k) who think they are rich but in reality are poor.
    They lease cars, live in houses too expensive (so high mortgage outgoings) etc.
    At the end of the day, no matter what you earn, you are on a losing streak if you spend more than you earn.

    I actually agree with the message Deborah was trying (poorly) to get across - we need to do something about helping business' which are a month away from failure. What I don't know (maybe more education/mentoring?).


 

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